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We have just witnessed one of the seven most amazing days of US foreign policy. It was not pretty, but it was revealing. Here the main consequences of a week to remember.
1. Missed Opportunity at NATO
President Donald Trump has unorthodox views on US foreign policy. Many of them. And even though it is true that all the other presidents of the post-war era have been resolved to express their support for NATO, the outright questioning of the military alliance. by Trump is not only understandable, but necessary. What exactly does a NATO alliance do in 2018? Who pays his dues? What triggers a coordinated response from NATO? Does a cyber attack reach the level of collective action? For the first time, politicians and experts have debated these issues with seriousness and honesty. And Trump was the reason why.
But then the President of the United States had his own way. He criticized other NATO members for not sharing their fair share – only five NATO members, including the United States, currently honor the commitment to devote 2% of GDP to the defense. But Trump then announced his victory, stating that he had managed to get NATO members to spend more (he apparently made a 4% figure at an in camera meeting ) and at a faster deadline, to be reprimanded by other NATO leaders. including French President Emmanuel Macron. And just like that, important and pressing issues of NATO have turned into a show once again. Given his unusual worldview, Trump's NATO argument was one of his strongest. He just messed it up.
2. An isolated United Kingdom
In the aftermath of the NATO summit, Trump went directly to the United Kingdom. Even before Trump comes up, the week has been the most tumultuous of British politics since the Brexit vote – Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson have resigned in protest at the approach British Prime Minister Theresa May's "Brexit" to negotiations with Brussels. Trump then arrived and quickly poured fuel on the political fire, giving an interview to the British tabloid The Sun in which he criticized May's strategy, saying that his pursuit of a less radical breakup with Europe would cost him a bespoke trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom Aside, he mentioned that he thinks that Johnson would "make a great prime minister". Ouch
Trump seemed to be really surprised that his remarks caused such a tumult and denied criticizing May. As Trump has seen, the press has distorted his statements. For most Britons, it probably would not have had to make such inflammatory comments in the first place.
If Trump really wants to reshape the world order, he must take advantage of the geopolitical opportunities that arise. The need for the UK to enter into new trade agreements after Brexit is exactly such an opportunity. Trump seems to have complicated it for no good reason.
3. The summit to end all the highs
Leave aside if Trump should have organized the summit with Vladimir Putin in the first place. He has wanted one for ages, and he finally succeeded. But this press conference: wow. The Donald Trump who uttered these statements was not a man committed to perpetuating the story of "witch hunt" about the investigation of Special Advisor Robert Mueller. Indeed, one has to wonder if he has temporarily forgotten that there is an active investigation into the collusion between Russia and the country. Of all the statements made by Trump during this press conference, the most detrimental was his response to the question of whether he believed that US intelligence agencies had badessed Russia's interference in the elections of 2016. "They think it is Russia.I have President Putin – he just said that it is not Russia.I do not see any reason to do it. "
The reaction was so fast and so bipartisan that Trump was forced to make a follow-up statement the next day in Washington, stating that he meant" would not "He then added," I'm not sure. accepts the conclusion of our intelligence community that Russia's interference in the 2016 elections took place, "before immediately adding" It could also be other people. Many people there. "That seemed enough to placate his followers and enrage his critics, which is perhaps the only political principle of Trump today."
4. No deep state … but a deep bureaucracy [19659003] There was a clear winner of the now infamous press conference in Helsinki, it was Mueller 's investigation. Congressional Republican appeals to end the war. There were more and more inquiries, but this performance from Helsinki allowed the Mueller team to gain more time … at least until US politics returned to its current state of affairs. new normality: last 10 days There has been a wave of activity related to investigations before and after the Trump-Putin summit On the Friday before Helsinki, the Ministry of Justice announced the indictment of 12 Russian military intelligence officials, the first time Mueller targeted the government Russian nt and appointed Russian officers in his investigation. The day after Helsinki, the Justice Ministry also accused Maria Butina of being a potential Russian spy who was trying to infiltrate the National Rifle Association to influence American politics. These were clear messages sent to Trump-ones that he was unaware of promptly.
Every effective government needs a public service that functions well and engages in its work; Trump's recent European adventure has discouraged many of these people, especially those working in intelligence and the State Department. Indeed, the only people in charge of the administration who currently seem motivated to do their job are those who investigate Trump.
5. And the winner is …
It was an extraordinary week, even by Trumpian standards. The allies were insulted, the enemies were celebrated … and the winner was China, who largely left out and let things unfold (although she found the time to make commercial openings to Europe this week). Some will say that Putin was the big winner of all this – with the transatlantic alliance showing his divisions and Trump's performance in Helsinki. But for all the chaos, Trump has actually strengthened the resolve of Russia's traditional skeptics (US Congressmen, European countries) to repel Moscow. For them, to oppose Russia has now become an existential issue, and will probably make Putin's life more difficult, not easier.
It is no secret that China has global aspirations. But there is a difference in Beijing telling other countries that the world is changing and Trump is showing the countries that the world is changing. If nothing else, Trump has managed to convey at least as much.
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