In search of influence, Egyptian President Sisi chairs the AU

Nearly six years after the African Union has managed to shelter it in the cold, Egypt will take the helm of the organization – and it is unlikely that the strengthening multilateral powers are on the agenda.

Cairo's mandate "will probably focus on security and peacekeeping," said Ashraf Swelam, who heads a think tank attached to the country's foreign ministry.

The new AU president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, will probably focus less on "financial and administrative reform" than his predecessor, Swelam added.

The Rwandan president has demanded a continent-wide import tax to finance the AU and reduce its dependence on external donors, who still pay more than half of the budget. annual report of the institution.

An African diplomat said AFP that Egypt – with its South African and Nigerian counterparts – does not want a powerful AU.

This diplomat, who has been following the affairs of the AU for more than a decade, said that Cairo had "never forgotten" its suspension in 2013.

The nearly one-year lockout of the AU came after the Egyptian army deposed Islamist President Mohamed Morsi, who in 2012 became the country's first democratically elected president.

President Sisi should take the helm at the biannual AU Heads of State meeting, which will be held on February 10 and 11 at the AU's brilliant headquarters in Addis Ababa, the capital from Ethiopia.

As usual, the multiple security crises of the continent will figure prominently in the agenda of personalities.

Rwanda's ambitious funding proposal is likely to be on the table as well.

But he has encountered resistance not only from Egypt, but also from other member states, so that he may not succeed.

The reform of the AU Commission is an even more sensitive topic. In November 2018, most states rejected a proposal to give the head of the executive body of the AU the power to appoint MPs and commissioners.

But Egyptians are "fully engaged" in promoting other reforms of the AU, according to an AU official.

One of the main initiatives supported by Cairo is the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA), an initiative approved by 44 of the 55 member states in March 2018.

The Single Market is a flagship element of the AU Agenda 2063 Program, designed as a strategic framework for socio-economic transformation.

However, the trade pact has met resistance from South Africa.

Mr Sisi will therefore have to insist that this agreement be ratified, if it is to enter into force.

For Elissa Jobson, head of advocacy for Africa at the International Crisis Group, he should be able to "use the presidency to strengthen his country's position among other African states".

"This is not a departure from previous administrations," especially that of the outgoing president, she added.

"Kagame has shown that the presidency – long regarded as a mere figurehead – can serve to promote national interests and strengthen an international leader's profile," Jobson said.

The AU official – who requested anonymity – said the Rwandan president will remain a benchmark for the organization's broad reform agenda, despite the handover of the presidency .

But there are major limitations to the power exercised by the position of President of the AU.

Kagame suffered an overwhelming disavowal from the AU after expressing "serious doubts" over the results of the recent presidential election in the Democratic Republic of Congo, officially won by Felix Tshisekedi.

Although also challenged by the Catholic Church, the results were validated by the Constitutional Court of the DRC and hailed by the mainland heavyweights of South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt.

For Liesl Louw-Vaudran at the Institute of Security Studies, President Sisi said that Egypt should be considered part of Africa, not just the Arab world – but it would require work .

"The countries of North Africa have the reputation of looking in a different direction from that of Africa and Egypt will have to overcome this stereotype," she said.

The AU theme for this summit is "Refugees, Returnees and Internally Displaced Persons" presented in a security context.

Cairo is a champion of the fight against illegal immigration and a model for hosting refugees on its territory.