Papua New Guinea seeks to become "the richest black nation"

The new prime minister of Papua New Guinea has an ambitious goal – what the cynics would say wacky – to make one of the poorest countries in the world the "richest black nation" on the planet. only ten years.

If the national economies looked like football teams, then Papua New Guinea would be at the bottom of the table, struggling to avoid a relegation fight.

Violent crime and corruption are rampant, reliable electricity is scarce and population centers are set up as isolated cities, surrounded by jungle and mountainous ridges with no tracks that can be seen. grow in the equatorial sky.

As rich as the culture, language and beauty of Papua New Guinea, it is the 153rd most developed country in the world out of 189, according to the United Nations. It ranks slightly better than Syria, slightly worse than Myanmar.

New Prime Minister James Marape wants to change that.

He promised that ten years from now, his compatriots would live in "the richest black Christian nation" in the world.

It's not going to be easy.

The current incumbent is the highly industrialized economy of Trinidad and Tobago, where the average resident earns about 833% more than Papua New Guinea.

If the British territory of Bermuda was also included in the ranking, the task would be even more arduous.

The economy of Papua New Guinea is expected to grow at a rate of 30% higher than that of the world every year for the next ten years, just to catch up.

"PNG has never experienced 30% growth in the past, no other country in the world, at least not for a long time," said Maholopa Laveil, an economics lecturer at the university. University of Papua New Guinea.

To achieve its noble goal, Marape seems to bet on an increase in gas revenues and a larger portion of this money remaining in the country.

He hinted that he might consider renegotiating a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) contract with Total and ExxonMobil, which would double domestic production to better benefit the local economy.

He also promised to stop unprocessed hardwood exports and fight corruption.

But the strategy carries risks.

The World Bank warned that even before the commissioning of a second LNG project, the economy was "increasingly concentrated in oil and gas-related activities."

This, she warned, increases Papua New Guinea's vulnerability to the vagaries of international energy markets and natural disasters – like the magnitude 7.5 earthquake that froze production and stalled. the economy in 2018.

Even the existing PNG LNG project in the country – which started operating in 2014 – did not meet expectations.

It necessitated a controversial public loan of more than one billion Australian dollars ($ 700 million) and contributed to the skyrocketing of the national debt.

The project was expected to increase GDP by more than 97 percent, but according to Paul Flanagan – a former Australian government official who runs the influential PNG Economics blog – the increase has been closer to 6 percent.

"Overall, the PNG LNG project was overwhelmingly over-promised, and then failed," said one of his recent blog posts.

"For household disposable income, the forecast was an improvement of 84%, the result is a 9% drop."

Mr Flanagan believes that, regardless of any energy boom, Marape – a former finance minister – will have to undertake tough monetary and trade reforms, if the country has any hope of sustainable growth.

"Time will tell if the new government will tackle such difficult political economy challenges, challenges to make PNG a much richer black Christian nation," he said. declared.