Poll in Zimbabwe: Bar of success is low, stakes are high and race is tight

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa and the ruling Zanu-PF hope that a credible victory in the July 30 elections will legitimize power (party and state) that they won by the "coup d'etat" that toppled his predecessor Robert Mugabe last November.

With the victory, they say, donors and dollars will flock to the country that they have resurrected for nearly two moribund decades. Zimbabwe is now "open to business" and will prosper. The resurrection of Zanu-PF will be complete.

But a new investigation
suggests that Zanu-PF should block all plans for premature celebration. the
last showed that, in the space of a month, Nelson Chamisa
MDC-Alliance bridged the gap with Zanu-PF. Investigations are conducted
Afrobarometer, an independent research network that leads
attitude surveys across Africa and its Zimbabwean partner, Mbad Public
Opinion Institute, a non-profit, non-governmental research organization.

If the defendants were to vote now, Mnangagwa
40% of the vote and the leader of the opposition Nelson Chamisa would take 37%.
Potential voters still undecided or unspoken are at 20%. Split
this and you get a 50/47 race.

The numbers are very close. If it's not a victory for the
MDC-Alliance, it looks like a presidential flow. The MDC-Allaince
has an advance of 49% to 26% in towns and villages and in the countryside.
the figures are 30% for the opposition to the 48% of Zanu-PF. In the parliament
Zanu-PF would get 41% at 36 MDC-Alliance. This is a big change
According to the May survey

Given the momentum of the MDC and the Alliance, the hopes of Zanu-PF post-Mugabe
the resurrection can be broken. Much depends on the ability of both parties
to manage this interregnum

Great compromises will be negotiated, ranging from the coalition
governments, which the survey shows has the support of 60% of
the respondents, for amnesties for crooks and chief killers.

Strike agreements could indeed be central to whether or not the
the election is a success. That's because this election is about grabbing
back to the heart of the hardwon democracy of a regime dominated by the army.
It's about cleaning up generations of fear.

It is a difficult task at any time. It's even harder when it took a shot to pull out its main source.

A divided Zanu-PF

Mnangagwa has spectacularly failed to win past elections in his own constituencies, running for Parliament three times and losing twice.

The Zanu-PF factions that clashed before the coup – the Generation-40 group that supported Grace Mugabe for the party and the state president and Lacoste, who supported Mnangagwa – always fight for ethnic reasons. than ever. Some of the losers of the Generation 40 group left the party to form the National Patriotic Front.

Although the perpetrators were not found, the explosion of Zanu-PF's Bulawayo rally at the end of June killed two people and narrowly missed an entire milestone. leading figures, might suggest that the group's injuries have not yet healed.

And the soldiers do not agree.

If the military side of Zanu-PF's hesitant post-coup state pact fears losing an election, and therefore access to more wealth than power can bring, the free and fair dimensions electoral competition would be considerably reduced. Is a repeat of the post-election chaos of mid-2008, when at least 170 people were killed and nearly 800 were beaten or raped?

To complicate matters, there is no guarantee that hungry and angry junior officers would follow their elders' attempts to change the will of the people.

Mnangagwa could be at the mercy of the soldier. Some suggest that Constantino Chiwenga, the mercurial vice president and – unconstitutionally – defense minister might be among them.

Others contend that both leaders need each other if the regime is to keep the promises of a clean election

And as George Charamba, permanent secretary from Zimbabwe, said:

international re-engagement and legitimacy … It must be flawless, transparent, free, fair, consistent with international standards, without violence and therefore universally recognized because foreign policy instrument … -engagement and legitimacy; we make politics at a higher level.

This is a clear call for a free and fair survey. If the election does not meet these expectations and its results are tight, legitimacy could be maintained with carefully calculated agreements. Perhaps the widely expected unity government during the coup could reappear.

Increasing Opposition

Chamisa and the MDC (the alliance is composed of seven parties, most of which separated from the late Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC), seem to take advantage of the fact that they are not in the same position. momentum that they seem to have won by defying Zimbabwe. The management of the contest by the Electoral Commission. The alliance challenged the neutrality of the commission and raised concerns about the accuracy of the voters' role

. All his allegations do not necessarily stand up to scrutiny. The 250,000 suspected ghosts may be ducks, but as Derek Matyszak, the man of the Institute of Security Studies in Harare, contends that the role was not communicated on time for the primaries, none of the candidates is constitutionally valid.

Emboldened by the lack of police officers, thousands of demonstrators led by the MDC Alliance demonstrated at the headquarters of the commission on July 11, showing no fear.

If this dynamic continues to develop over the next week, a victory is conceivable. The same goes for presidential elections. Certainly, the party in power could win fairly, but the opposition will have to be convinced. The mode of politics for the next round should be the restoration of peace, not war.

Low bars, high stakes

The bars are low – "the west", led in this case by the United Kingdom, seemed to be happy with the winners of the coup, hoping maybe a Zanu-PF renewed. Perfidious Albion (Treacherous England) could end his schizophrenic career in Zimbabwe with a groan about the end of a liberal democratic dream. But the stakes are high for Zimbabweans: far more than the reputation of a minor world power past its glory.

The people of Zimbabwe face more than just reputational damage: perhaps the former colonial power will have a plan B that helps more than embarrbading.

David B. Moore, Professor of Development Studies and Visiting Researcher, Pan-African Reflection and Conversation Institute, University of Johannesburg

This article was previously published in originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.