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Trump routinely disrupts world summits and rallies, especially with his allies, to fight before his arrival and to launch criticism after his departure. This time might not be very different.
The Group of Twenty, the annual summit of leaders, foreign ministers and central bank governors, is larger than the Group of Seven meeting that Trump had disrupted in July or the Peace Forum in France earlier this month where Trump had distinguished himself from the European allies.
The G20 will also include a growing group that the president admires: his populist compatriots and the autocratic, sometimes repressive leaders of Russia, Turkey, China, and Saudi Arabia.
Their presence could change the content of this global gathering for Trump, put him alongside like-minded leaders, like the newly-elected Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro, but the G20 will also give the president an opportunity to score political points at home and a platform to distract the president's attention. problems that he faces in Washington.
"He is prospering"
"The conventional wisdom is that he hates these things, but he has another dimension on which he flourishes," said Aaron David Miller, vice president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center. "Trump does not like multilateral diplomacy, but he prides himself on breaking the standards at these events.He knows that the world is watching us and that it's basically the thing he likes most." : it's a big scene. "
As the weekend begins, a person familiar with preliminary discussions about sending out a joint G20 communique this weekend said the discussions were already getting tough. The United States disagrees with any reference to "free trade," saying it must be "free and fair trade," depending on the person. The United States also hates any discussion on strengthening international trading systems – which is a code for the WTO, and on climate change, they want no reference to the Paris agreement, nor to the established links between emissions and climate change, "said the official.
While the president has cast suspicion on international organizations for a political mark, the G20 will place him in the midst of a group of populist leaders who have been equally angry with multilateral institutions and who could do so. feel like a star in a booming global political context. movement.
Italy, member of the G20, has a new populist leader, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who suppresses immigration and asylum seekers, strengthens the country's police force and cuts taxes, while fighting with the European Union.
Brazilian Bolsonaro, known for his misogynistic, racist and homophobic remarks, as well as for his comments on the military regime, was congratulated this month by Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, who said that The United States was "delighted" to work with a spirit of leadership.
Trump expressed reluctance to multilateral institutions by cutting funds or withdrawing from certain UN groups and agreements, repeatedly issuing inaccurate criticisms of NATO and moving away from major international pacts such as that the Paris agreement on climate and the Iranian nuclear deal.
Other populist leaders are now following his example. Italy has recently echoed a decision by the Trump administration and has withdrawn from the UN Global Compact on Migration, while Brazil has just announced that it will be the first time that it has been announced. it will cancel its decision to host the next round of UN climate talks.
Trump will meet Bolsonaro and Conte in a group and meet with other leaders, including South Korean President Moon Jae-in, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japan's Shinzo Abe.
Miller notes that "the G20 will also give him the opportunity to interact with a number of authoritarians". Trump is expected to discuss with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and sit down with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Enemies and allies
Trump threatened to cancel his meeting with Putin after Moscow seized three Ukrainian ships in the Azov Sea, but no official decision has yet been taken.
And as lawmakers excuse the government for the treatment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi's killing by men close to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Bolton said Trump had no plans to formally meet the Crown Prince , an utterance that prevents more casual encounters.
Trump scrupulously avoided criticizing Putin or bin Salman, even though both are the subject of bitter criticism in Washington. Alina Polyakova, a foreign policy researcher at the Brookings Institution, said that "this is the way the president approached opponents, as opposed to allies," as was the case at previous summits.
"Putin, Kim Jong Un, even Xi," said Polyakova, "in the perspective of the meeting that he praises, or at the very least says nothing negative, even if there are good reasons to be critical. "
"But before the meetings with the European allies, whom the president considers as enemies, he tends to want to criticize them," she said.
Indeed, Trump insulted French President Emmanuel Macron before and after his visit to France on the occasion of the first anniversary of the First World War, during which he did not participate in a ceremony with the other leaders. According to the words of the president, "they began to learn German in Paris before the arrival of the United States", would have provoked the most anger among the French.
British Prime Minister Theresa May recently criticized her intention to pull Britain out of the EU. He lashed out at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after the Canadian announced at the close of the G7 summit in Quebec that his country would respect US tariffs with penalties for US products.
And on Sunday, while Russia was firing on a NATO member, the president spoke to Twitter – not to criticize Moscow or offer support to Ukraine, but to blame the US for Europe not to spend more in the alliance and in trade.
"He does not like dealing with these people," Miller said. "They ask him to do things, they do not cooperate, they do not lie down and do not praise him every time he enters a room."
Still according to Miller, Trump's approach to summits was a "love-hate relationship: there are clutter, encounters, interactions with people who ask him for things and criticize him, but he is on stage. .. and he loves to sting, irritate and annoy. "
Michelle Kosinski from CNN contributed to this report.
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