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The growing invective between President Trump and the Iranian rulers, recalling the president's bombastic exchanges with North Korea, has raised fears of a military confrontation in the Persian Gulf – a vital channel for supply global oil tanker – or even something bigger. 19659002] In a late-night Twitter message, Trump warned Iranian President Hbadan Rouhani in capital letters of apocalyptic consequences if his country threatened the United States, raising tensions to a new level. "BE CAREFUL!" Wrote Mr. Trump. Oil prices have briefly risen on concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Many badysts of Iranian politics have viewed Mr. Trump's message as an element of intimidation, rather than a real threat. Few have said that they foresaw a war between Iran and the United States, in part because the Iranian hierarchy is well aware that its forces are largely overwhelmed by an American military that would have an aerial and naval dominance . Yet, no one dismisses an armed clash or any other form of Iranian response, such as a cyberattack, to send a provocative message to Mr. Trump.
"I do not think the two sides want the war," said Cliff Kupchan, president of Eurasia Group, a political risk advisory firm in Washington. However, Mr Kupchan said: "The Iranians play with a different fish – this guy bites – and that means we are entering a phase of potential escalation, and that is a real risk." [19659004HerearetheanswerstosomebasicquestionsaboutthelatestconfrontationbetweenIranandtheUnitedStates:
What is the purpose of the Trump administration?
Trump's critics say he's surrounded by like-minded right-wing ideologues, including John R. Bolton, his national security advisor, and Mike Pompeo, his secretary. of the State, who would like to see a regime change in Iran and were happy Perhaps when he abandoned the US participation in the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran negotiated by the predecessor of Mr. Trump, Barack Obama.
Some political badysts say that Mr. Trump believes that his escalating threats against Iran could force Iran's leaders to negotiate with him. respond to what he considered fatal flaws in the nuclear deal, in which Iran is committed never to acquire atomic bombs. Mr. Trump has repeatedly praised him for successfully conducting such a pressure tactic against North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, calling him a critic for Kim's decision to stop to test nuclear bombs and missiles and discuss with Mr. Trump at a summit meeting last month in Singapore
How did we get here?
Relations with Iran have become uncontrollable since the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the American-backed shah. But the basis of the current upsurge of tension lies at least partly in the election of Mr. Trump in 2016, which adopted the position of Israel and Saudi Arabia, the closest allies of the Middle East, that Iran is a relentless enemy. In rejecting the 2015 nuclear deal, Trump has reimposed and intensified economic sanctions related to nuclear power against Iran, warning other countries to stop buying Iranian oil, The country's largest export, or risk economic sanctions of the United States. It has included Iran on a list of mainly Muslim countries subject to a ban on traveling to the United States. He placed the governor of the Iranian central bank on a blacklist of terrorism. His administration described the clerical hierarchy of Iran as an irreparably corrupt kleptocracy and cheered Iranians who protested against Iran's increasingly severe political repression and economic problems
. He said he could close the Strait of Ormuz, a narrow waterway leading to the Persian Gulf, which accounts for up to 40% of tanker traffic, if oil sales Iranian are reduced.
Could Trump's strategy with Iran succeed?
Opinions on US relations with Iran are so polarized that it is difficult to speculate. But badysts who have long studied Iran have expressed serious doubts about the capitulation of its leaders in the face of US pressure. "A regime that for 40 years said" Death to America "can not, in the context of President Trump's aggressive policies," said Houchang Hbadan-Yari, professor of political science at Queen's University & And the Royal Military College of Ontario, Canada. "They must oppose the American position."
Others have said that the Trump administration may underestimate the tenacity of the Iranian system, which has a vast apparatus to repress internal political threats.There are few signs that dissidents in Iran can do more than conduct dispersed demonstrations. Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, the paramilitary force that is intensely loyal to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, exerts a tremendous economic and political influence
And if there was a war between the l 39; Iran and the United States?
little question that the United States It would prevail in a conventional war, a result that did not escape the Iranians when the United States quickly overthrew Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and drove the Taliban out of power in Afghanistan
. The United States Army eclipses Iran by all means. There are about about 1.3 million active US military, almost triple the number of Iran. Annual military spending in the United States exceeded $ 600 billion last year, compared to about $ 16 billion in Iran. The Americans have nearly 6,000 tanks against less than 1,700 in Iran. US air and naval forces – more than 13,000 aircraft and nearly 300 warships – far outnumber those in Iran.
This does not mean that Mr. Trump is ready to support his threats by invading Iran. on the contrary, is considered non-existent. Mr. Trump said that he wanted to take the United States out of foreign military conflicts, and the Americans showed little appetite for another war.
"I do not see a real war – it's not in anyone's interest," said Barbara Slavin, director of the Initiative for the Future of the United States. Iran at the Atlantic Council, a research group based in Washington. "Trump does not even want to keep the boots on the ground in Syria."
Where, if any, could a confrontation occur?
One possible point of conflict is the Strait of Ormuz, where the stars of the Revolutionary Guards sometimes harbaded the American warships of the Fifth Fleet patrolling the watercourse. In an e-mail message to customers, Mr. Kupchan said: "The war is not imminent, but the likelihood of a progressive incident in the Strait of Hormuz increases."
The strait was the backdrop to violent confrontation. In April 1988, the United States Naval Forces sank three Iranian warships and destroyed two oil rigs after an American frigate was struck by an Iranian mine. Three months later, the American warship Vincennes fired missiles that shot down a civilian Iranian airliner that the Americans say they mistook for a fighter plane, killing 290 people on board
Some badysts speculate privately that Mr. Trump could take revenge as American humiliation in January 2016 – a few days before the entry into force of the nuclear deal – the Revolutionary Guards seized 10 US sailors from two patrol boats and broadcast photos in captivity before their release.
Officials showed no sign that Mr. Trump's latest Twitter threat frightened them. Rather, some have treated him with sarcasm.
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs and a Twitter regular himself, offered this reply Monday afternoon: "We have been here for millennia & saw the fall of empires, including ours, which has lasted more than the life of some countries, BE CAREFUL! "
Thomas Erdbrink contributed to the report.
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