Trump tests his bargaining powers in a confrontation with Xi



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The US president will meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Saturday on the occasion of a dinner in Argentina that White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow suggested Tuesday that could produce a "breakthrough" – or not.
The high-stakes tete-a-tete between the two leaders of the world's largest economies is the culmination of a year of rising rights of way, and arrives a few weeks before the January 1 deadline. set by Trump for withdrawals of more than $ 200 billion in Chinese imports will increase from 10% to 25%. The intensification of the issue is the additional threat that represents Trump to launch a third round of tariffs on $ 267 billion of Chinese goods, if he and Xi fail to put an end to the stalemate between the two countries.

"I know the president is extremely disappointed," Kudlow, director of the National Council of the Economy, told reporters on Tuesday in the White House, citing China's reluctance to respond to US demands. He described Saturday's dinner as an opportunity to "turn a new page", so Xi can "step up" and come up with new ideas after months of "disappointing discussions".

"There is a good chance of reaching an agreement," said Kudlow. But he pointed out that China, which recently sent to the United States an offer letter of 142 articles, "must do more" to end the trade war, especially with respect to intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers.

"The bilateral dinner may still have a lot to say to President Xi," said Kudlow, who had already visited China for the first time in April as part of the Trump government's initial efforts to conclude a trade agreement. "I hope that he did it, by the way, I think we all hope so that we can get out of these different dead ends." But for the moment, we do not do not see it. "

Trump openly stated that China's offer was "unacceptable" in his remarks to oval bureau reporters. "It's a pretty comprehensive list, a lot of things we asked for, but there are still four or five things left unfinished," Trump said. "We'll probably have them too."

Mr Kudlow said on Tuesday that one of the reasons China may be reluctant to offer new concessions – for the moment – is because she is not used to a US president. who is willing to do more than "give lip service" to unfair trade practices. "Maybe China is not used to dealing with a strong president who will not give in," he said.

Some experts suggest that the Chinese could be prepared to offer much more during this weekend's negotiations, but their negotiators may be inclined to keep these cards closely until Xi can privately discuss the situation. an offer without risk of leakage. The Beijing negotiators have been burned not once but twice by the United States for revealing the state of play of the negotiations, especially during China's accession negotiations with the United States. World Trade Organization in 1999.

"The Chinese have spoken orally through a variety of channels that what they really want to offer will be surprising, but they have not written anything like it," said Scott Kennedy, deputy director. Freeman Chair in China Studies. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "But I do not think the Chinese will make the kind of concessions that the Trump administration wants."

Trump's tariffs attracted complaints from US companies responsible for paying import duties. This also raises concerns about the recovery of inflation, even as the Federal Reserve raises its interest rates in December.

More than 100 companies in the S & P group have already telegraphed preemptively in the third quarter, comparing the results with the damages that other rates would impose on the US economy. Several companies, including Walmart, the country's largest retailer, warned that prices for everyday consumer goods such as shampoos, detergents and paper products – such as napkins – would become more expensive for consumers.

Long-time experts in the field of Sino-US relations say that since President Richard Nixon's seven-day official visit to China in 1972, a meeting between the two countries has been equally critical. The trip, which Nixon described as "the week that changed the world," ended a 25-year diplomatic stalemate between the two countries.

"We are living a period of transformation far superior to that of Donald Trump," said Robert Sutter, professor of international relations at George Washington University, who spent three decades in government working on Asian foreign policy. "He could change course in different ways."

The Americans and the Chinese seemed to be moving towards a resolution earlier this month, when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He made a phone call together, followed by a call between Trump and Xi. US Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, also hinted that a Chinese delegation led by Liu would come to Washington to start negotiating the terms of the deal this week, ahead of the meeting in Buenos Aires. Aires, triggering a savage effort to bring to light all the details of the negotiations.
Then comes the rejection of the Chinese offer by Trump – and a new escalation of Vice President Mike Pence in the remarks at the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. "China has been profiting from the United States for many, many years and these days are over," said Pence.

Washington's contradictory messages reflect to some extent the deep divisions within Trump's western wing between free traders – including those from Wall Street such as Mnuchin and Kudlow – and extremists such as the US representative. Robert Lighthizer Trade and White House Commercial Counselor Peter Navarro.

Navarro clearly expressed his disagreements with his colleagues in a focus group earlier this month – and was quickly dismissed by Kudlow, who said that Navarro – a former economics professor who would not join the delegation in Argentina – "it's poorly expressed".

While there are only a few days left before Mr. Trump's departure for Argentina, plans for the working dinner remain unchanged, especially if the wives of the two leaders will join them and what subjects will be at the agenda. Kudlow said that there had been "a lot of communication with the Chinese government at all levels" in the weeks leading up to the ruler's meeting, but that no other reunion is planned for the two-day summit will begin Friday. .

All that is announced in Buenos Aires goes against the usual progress of trade negotiations, in which the leaders usually meet to formalize the agreements already made between badistants of lower rank. Ultimately, the two Presidents will likely commit to ending a year of damaging tariff pressures between the two economic superpowers and continuing discussions – what Trump did with the European Union and Japan more early this year.

"Basically, is the administration interested in concluding the agreement or is it interested in continuing a new cold war?" said David Dollar, senior fellow of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institutions and former China Economic and Financial Envoy for the US Treasury, under the presidency of President Barack Obama. "We will see if Trump is a market maker who takes the best offer available or will follow this new warmongering vision of China to contain and decouple."

The chief economic advisor to the president said the end result would be in the hands of Trump.

"It's a big problem, this meeting, and the stakes are very important," Kudlow said. "President Trump has an excellent track record as a negotiator and he will know, through the facts and his instinct, how to handle that."

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