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The UK government and the Bank of England are likely to step up their warnings on Wednesday regarding the negative impact of a Brexit on the economy, potentially helping prime minister Theresa May cope with a deep opposition to his plan.
Just four months before Britain leaves the European Union, May has failed to convince his conservative party to sign the agreement signed Sunday with European leaders, leaving open the possibility of A Brexit without agreement.
BoE Governor Mark Carney and Finance Minister Philip Hammond have both already underlined the importance of a transition period in the May plan to help Britain withdraw of the EU in four years.
Carney said last week that leaving the bloc without transition could be likened to the oil crisis of the 1970s for the world's fifth largest economy.
But the prospect of a Brexit remains disturbing, given the extent of opposition to May's draft in Parliament, which is due to be voted on December 11.
The Daily Telegraph said on Wednesday that the government's report would show that in a scenario similar to the May plan, the UK economy would be 1 to 2% lower in 15 years than the country remaining in the EU. But it would be 7.6% smaller if he did not agree.
The forecasts are likely to revive the protests of supporters of a more permanent break in the EU that accused the government of wanting to scare voters for them to remain in the EU before the 2016 referendum on the Brexit.
"Politically, this sounds like a reshuffle of the Fear Project," said Dominic Raab, who resigned as minister of Brexit of May earlier this month at the Telegraph. "People expect to be inspired and unafraid to turn to the government."
Brexit supporters believe the May deal will hurt the UK economy by making it harder to reach trade deals with faster-growing non-European countries and regions.
Many voters ignored the government's warnings of a dire economic situation when they decided to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum and it is unclear that lawmakers will be influenced by the predictions regarding the effects of a Brexit without agreement.
The government should release Wednesday morning its badessment of the impact of various Brexit results, including a comparison with staying in the EU.
Then, at 1630 GMT, the BoE will publish its badessment of the implications for interest rates and its banking sector oversight arising from different Brexit scenarios.
Carney and other senior central bankers have warned investors not to rely on a reduction in borrowing costs in the event of a negative shock to the economy, saying that this could strongly increase inflation and hurt growth.
In parallel with its Brexit badysis, the BoE will publish its report on financial stability and the results of its stress tests conducted in 2018 with UK banks.
The Financial Conduct Authority, the UK's financial markets regulator, will also release its own Brexit impact report at 16:30 GMT.
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