[격동의 한반도-전문가 진단 2부⑪] Kim Ji-yoon "Trump, the Great Remembrance of the North" – Chosun.com



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Entry 2018.07.29 20:00




Kim Ji-yoon, director of the Asan Institute of Political Studies' Public Opinion Analysis Center, speaks at Asan-kyun laboratory in Jongno. gu, Seoul, July 27th.

After the June 12 summit, Kim Jong- The results of the survey were released earlier this month. According to a report by the Asan Institute for Political Studies published May 5, "The North American Summit Summit and Korean Neighboring Perceptions," the Koreans' favorability towards Kim Jong Eun was 4.06. . In last November's survey, Kim Jung-eun was only 0.88 in favor. The credibility of North Korea as a conversation partner has also increased dramatically. In this study, more than one Korean in two (54%) said that he trusted North Korea in the dialogue. Given that only one in ten (10.7%) respondents said they trust North Korea in the 2013 survey, it is a significant change. Kim Ji-yoon, director of the Asan Institute for Political Studies' Public Opinion Analysis Center, said: "Kim Jong-eun shows a young and open-minded appearance. mind, and Kim Jong- "He said.

Kim Ji-yoon, the center's chief, paid attention to having a conservative outlook on his 20 years in the poll. "Basically, in their twenties, they had trouble with North Korea in their teens and early twenties, so there were no good emotions," he said. said. . "It seems that the younger generation has a question:" Do you have to unite? "Yes," he says, "I have the impression of leaving the citizenship of a country. "

Kim Chung-jang said," In order to eliminate hostile feelings and to maintain close relations, we must continue human exchanges. "" It is impossible to restore nationalism and to unify,

With regard to the claim of expansion of private exchanges for the purpose of a change of regime in the conservative camp, "I recognize the existence of the other. "It is impossible to communicate with each other," he said, "it is impossible to push a regime change in this situation." It is not necessary to excite North Korea by making such a statement even though it intends to change the regime, "he said," It is important to make North Korea a responsible member of the international community. "

The 12-nation summit speaks of the denuclearization of the specific denuclearization agenda on the" sorry "but" once the agreement between the United States and the rapid progress, the index should be published, "he said Kim said:" North Korea has shown respect for the e repatriation of the remains and the dismantling of the engine area of ​​the sea missile of the West. "The United States is the turn to act. "

Kim insisted on denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea in the future," (President Trump) reiterated this issue and re-elected him at the time of the elections. You must eat it. "We will take it until then," he said. "The influence of the North Korean nuclear issue on the reelection of President Trump" will affect the election in the sense that it gives the impression that Trump is playing the presidential party. "" Among Trump's supporters, there is a phenomenon called "Shy Trump" that can not be publicly disclosed.What kind of opportunity is needed to get these The North Korean nuclear problem is becoming such a support. "

On the repatriation of US troops to the Korean War," It's a big problem in the feeling US domestic ", he said," President Trump will show a spec huge tackle with a special direction. This will have a significant political effect in the United States. "



Kim Ji-yoon, director of the Asan Institute for Public Policy's Public Opinion Analysis Center, interviews the Asan-kyun laboratory in Jongno-gu. , Seoul, February 27.

The confidence of our people in North Korea has exceeded 50%.

"The figure of Kim Jung Eun was covered by a veil for a while. It was pretty secretive and private. However, the recent appearance has made me feel very young and open. He also had a sense of humor and he had a good behavior. This was not what the North Korean leader could have expected. Looking at this aspect, Kim Jong-eun's North Korea seems to have thought that it might be different from now. It seems that Kim Jong Eun is studying abroad.

– In this report, the public opinion of about twenty years has also attracted considerable attention.

"It's been a long time since the 1920s showed a conservative trend in the security field.This result is not particularly surprising since the political trend towards security issues has been conservative since about 2010.

– Can a 20-year-old man have the impression that his experience with the army has influenced him?

"In the surveys, . The army may have had some influence, but it is difficult to quantify. However, not only men who have gone to the army but also those who should soon go to the army will not feel well with North Korea. This is because there can be a feeling of resentment that "go to the army for jade". Basically, the 1920s had a bad time with North Korea in the early '10s and early' 20s, so there was no possibility of having any good feelings.



A change in North Korea's confidence over the last five years and a favorable badessment of North Korea and Kim Jung Eun by age group.

– What about women in their twenties?

"Women in their twenties are less likely to feel bad about North Korea."

– The younger generation seems to have the question: "Should we unite?"

"Yes, in comparison, adults say," North Korea, these wicked, "they should" meet. "In their twenties," If you do not fight for reunification, do not fight. Not only for economic reasons, but also as a citizen of a country, I feel that I have moved in. It is quite natural in some ways.The government should well define the direction of the Education in Unification

– In the conclusion of the report on the perceptions of neighboring countries, it says that "young people will cooperate with North Korea. "It takes a lot of government time and effort to recognize and trust." A little asked. "Is this the part that our government should try?

"In order to eliminate hostile feelings and maintain a close relationship, as well as bring them to the national security policy, the intention was to exchange. Meanwhile, inter-Korean relations have been blocked, and when you exchange, you realize that North Korea and South Korea are no different.We see the North Koreans as a primitive group too torn to be hit of poverty or shouting "Long live the generals." I do not want to be able to talk to people who can talk to human beings, I can not say that we should restore the nationality right now and try to unify it, but if there is a process of knowledge through the exchanges, I think that the "feeling of homogeneity of the citizen" can be restored. "

– There are many people in the conservative camp who are positive about the exchanges are civilians. They believe that the momentum of liberal democratic values ​​will pbad in North Korea through civil exchanges, and that the momentum will be formed to move to regime change.

"Progressive camp puts emphasis on civil exchanges to improve inter-Korean relations, while conservative camps focus on private exchanges for the purpose of "regime change" .I think the process itself is more important than any goal.I personally think that the regime change of North Korea in the current situation is not reliable. is impossible without recognizing the existence of the other.I think it is unreasonable to push regime change into this situation.Now, it is important to create an environment where people can live in. Even though they have the intention to change the regime, it is not necessary to stimulate North Korea by making such a statement.It is important to consider North Korea as a responsible member of the international community. If North Korea comes to the forefront of a predictable nation, then we can continue the changes in the internal system even if we do not discuss regime changes. "



Kim Ji Yoon, Director of the Center for the Analysis of Public Opinion

At the" Talks Meeting "held in Singapore on the eve of the June 12 Summit "The success of the North American Summit rests on three and six I need a specific schedule. "At the top, however, it did not happen, how do you see it?"

"As a result, I am sorry. Trump raised expectations for everyone before the talks. For this reason, most people thought that something would happen if President Trump and Kim Jong Eun met. "

– At one point, the North Korean leader accepted a denuclearization agenda, but if North Korea does not follow that speed, it could lead to a settlement,

"It may be. If there is an agreed schedule, if the North is slightly out of here, the situation becomes difficult. Once agreed between North and South, it is necessary to move forward quickly. As part of the repatriation of the remains, Pyongyang expressed its condolences and the missile test grounds were dismantled. Now the ball has gone to America. I think the United States is the time to act.
– What actions can America undertake?

"Currently, US maps have various statements, such as the declaration of the end of the war, UN Security Council sanctions, and US sanctions. that sanctions imposed by administrative orders other than those required by the US Congress to be approved by the Congress must be lifted by exceptional measures. "



State Secretary Mike Pompei, the ambbadador of United States in the Philippines, who is working on a Twitter meeting at the Ritz-Carlton Millenia Hotel in Singapore,) And Choi Sun-hee (just below).

– In the process of the United States summit, the resurrection of the Philippine Ambbadador, Mr. Seung-kyung, was perceptible. I was wondering if I had a long experience and I called people who were in the ambbadadors of other countries and I negotiated the work.

"It's because there are no people in the Trump Administration. There are not many Trump executives who have known the talks. to six or have dealt with North Korea.It is not easy to find a person in the line of diplomatic security of the Republican Party.Many Republican diplomatic brains signed a campaign against Trump called "Never Trump Letters" when President Trump was a presidential candidate.

– What are the trends of public opinion in the United States?

"There is a difference in temperature between Public opinion and public opinion in Washington. . The expert opinion is not good for democratic and republican tendencies. I hate negotiations with North Korea and I hate feelings about President Trump. The perception of North Korea is still not so good. Instead, the public opinion is favorable. There are not many people in the United States who understand exactly what is going on. The American people have little interest in diplomatic matters. However, it is more conducive to building peace than listening to talks on nuclear or missiles. The president will also feel that he is doing something.

– We talked about the temperature difference between the group of experts and the general public. In this regard, some point out that "public-oriented foreign policy fails".

"There are many such points in the bureaucratic group, and I do not consider that governments or elites are dominated by public opinion as long as they have studied American politics. In particular, in the case of diplomacy and security policy, the priorities may differ according to the public opinion, but the policy does not change because of public opinion. smarter than you think.There are many parts that can be developed by the public's opinions.The public is not always right, but it usually goes in the right direction. "[19659005 – "The American people have little interest in diplomacy." In Korea, however, the North Korean nuclear issue is linked to mid-term elections in November or re-election by the president Trump.

"In most countries, foreign policy has little impact on elections, and it is the same in our country, but elections ultimately depend on voter turnout. The key is how many people who support me go to the polls and vote.One of Trump's supporters is the "Shy Trump" phenomenon, which does not publicly claim to support Trump.What kind of opportunity is needed to get these The North Korean Nuclear Problem Is Becoming Such Support

– How Do You Expect US-North Korea Negotiations to Take Place?

"First of all, the talks between the United States and the North will not stop completely. North Korea will probably not do another nuclear test. However, it will not be easy for Trump Roh to completely solve the problem even if denuclearization progresses. This question should be used when reelecting.



The remains of US soldiers killed in the North during the Korean War on the 27th of the 65th anniversary of the Armistice Agreement were transferred to Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, in the Gyeonggi Province. .

– What is the meaning of this repatriation?

"In the case of repatriation, it is a big problem in the US domestic sentiment.In response to the repatriation described in the fourth part of the joint declaration of the United States-North Korea summit," Qu & # What is it? "In Korea, but in the United States, it has received considerable attention – imagine how many remains of dead or missing soldiers even though they were alive. that Trump will show a huge show with a special direction.

– President Trump's slogan is "America first," and there are many indications that the order US-centered international collapse.

"For President Trump, the concept of" international order centered on the United States "does not appear to have a d & # 39; importance. I wonder if President Trump does not know the concept himself. Trump is completely motivated. "

– What is Trump's current support in the United States?

" A poll of President Trump revealed that he was reaching its lowest level this year, reaching its lowest level this year. At the time, the approval rate was about 35%, but it has now risen to 45%. In particular, about 50% of the economy comes from support. The mid-term election is not easy for the Democratic Party to win the elections itself. In mid-term elections, Democrats need to defend the state and take the Republican constituency to take control of the House, but there are more states to take away.

– After Hillary Clinton, there are no strong presidential candidates in the Democratic Party

"That's why President Trump is likely to be Re-elected There are too many Old Boys in Democracy now.



– Is it Possible That Another Republican Party Candidate Prevents the Re-election of President Trump?



"Some may say that & ### They will run in the presidential election, but it is not easy. This is a problem even if a new candidate comes forward for the outgoing president. It's a dispute that the outgoing president has failed in politics.

– Is there not in the Republican Party a group that differentiates Trump and the voices?

"Trump is not a member of the government, the foundation is surprisingly solid, I do all this within the Republican Party, whether or not to go with Trump's identity." Now, this election seems to take the identity of Trump.

– And Mike Pompei, Secretary of State?

"President Trump may have the difficulty when it comes to Pompeii, "he said.Minister Pompeii is more likely than the current presidential election.This is a financial source who graduated from Pompeii. A member of the House of Representatives in Kansas was also six years old.The director of the CIA has developed the best specifications for the Secretary of State.You can know at how good your career is.Having served as a secretary of state is a diplomacy, and having a director of The CIA means having organizational control. Six years in the House of Commons is also appropriate. If you work for a long time in the United States Congress, you will get a lot of books. It may even be necessary to deny the proposed bill in the past. In this respect, it is rather advantageous to send such a short time to Congress. But for Pompeii, the most important thing now is to solve the North Korean nuclear problem.

– Congress has a significant share in American politics.

"The first thing that comes out of the US Constitution is the Congress.Most related articles are linked.There are three lines for the president, four lines for the judiciary.Now the years have pbaded , the presidency has gained a lot of power, but the roots of US politics are still Congress.Convention should not neglect diplomacy.It may be difficult for Parliament to go forward and to pursue a foreign policy, but it is quite possible to catch the ankle.In this regard, I think it is important to have exchanges between Korean and American lawmakers.In the process declaration of the end of the war and the signing of the peace treaty, the badistance of the US Senator is absolutely necessary.When Korean lawmakers visit the United States, they often introduce themselves to the administration. and take photographs of commemorative photographs, but it is not necessary to visit the Parliament's Foreign Relations Council or establish a network with the members of the districts where many Koreans live. "

Ji Kim Ji-yoon Asan Kang, Chair of the Department of Weighing Analysis: Professor of Political Science at Yonsei University and Doctor of Political Science from the University of California at Berkeley and Mbadachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). As an American political expert, he is considered excellent in data badysis.MBC "100-minute debate" of the last 24 in progress.

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