[ad_1]
[아시아경제 김민영 기자] Prospects for emerging economies such as rising US rates, the strength of the dollar, the high price of oil and the US-China trade dispute worsen, suggesting that emerging market crises could 39; worse.
"Korea's stock market and emerging market currencies have fallen since May, mainly because of rising US interest rates, the appreciation of the dollar, high oil prices and the consequences of the trade dispute between the United States and China ".
According to indicators such as the strength of exchange rates, the possibilities of capital outflows and the sustainability of growth, it is expected that the risk of emerging countries with high internal vulnerability will gradually increase. According to the results of the clbadification of countries as low, medium and high risk countries, high risk, which is likely to face foreign currency and the economic crisis Argentina, Turkey, Pakistan, the South Africa and Egypt were among the countries. "Countries that worry about the vicious circle of financial insolvency and the real economic recession, such as the fall in the value of the currency, the collapse of the badet market, the economic downturn and bank failures ".
Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Nigeria and Russia. In Eastern Europe, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Bangladesh and the Philippines are considered intermediate risk countries in Romania, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Asia.
Korea, with Peru, Vietnam, Chile, China, Thailand, Belong to the state. According to the LG Economic Research Institute, there is little chance that Korea will have sufficient foreign exchange reserves, a current account surplus, foreign badets of private equity holdings, currency exchanges with foreign central banks, etc.
LG Economic Research Institute said: "It is different from many emerging economies that need to raise their interest rates as a result of capital outflows." However, temporary capital outflows due to Temporary external shocks are not easy to improve.
However, in the case of Korea one can not be relieved that foreign investors can easily recover the investment funds if the risk avoidance phenomenon spreads. The Korean market is very open and liquid, with equity and bond funds representing 64% of short-term foreign capital outflows.
LG Economic Research Institute predicts that next year, when the US key rate will rise to 3% and that the growth of the US and global economies will slow down, will be the period when emerging economies are facing the greater difficulty. The strengthening of the dollar and the widening of the US-China trade dispute are also variables that can aggravate the crisis in emerging countries.
Kim Min-young, reporter [email protected]
[ad_2]
Source link
