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A day after Los Angeles saw its highest number of daily COVID-19 cases, county health officials warned of yet another rising number: deaths.
“Our daily counts over the past few days have been higher than a normal week,” said Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer. “The last 3 days we’ve killed over 25 people every day, and that’s unusual. The rates today and yesterday were higher. “
The number of virus-related deaths reported on Friday was 35. It may not seem like a big deal, but multiplied over the course of a month, that’s more than 1,000 more people lost. And there’s not much to indicate the daily number of deaths will drop anytime soon.
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LA County Health and Human Services Director Dr Christina Ghaly on Wednesday warned that an increase in hospitalizations was almost inevitable in the next two weeks, given the current number of new cases and the period incubation virus.
Ghaly then presented the probable end result with an equation. She noted that about 12% of all coronavirus cases end up in hospital before continuing. “Half of them end up in intensive care,” she continued. “Two-thirds of them are on a ventilator. Half of them will die, based on previous experience. ”
So, if we analyze the near-record number of 4,272 coronavirus cases on Friday through this equation, the daily death toll resulting from today’s cases in 2-3 weeks can reach 85 deaths per day. That’s more than three times the deaths reported by COVID-19 on Friday. Again, in one month, that would equate to 2,500 deaths. As a reminder, the highest number of reported daily deaths, according to Deadline records, was 91 on July 29.
And this projection assumes that hospitals and intensive care units are not overwhelmed. If this happens and patients cannot receive proper treatment, the death toll will skyrocket even more.
“If our case rates continue to rise and our hospitalization rate is higher than in July,” Ferrer said, “there is no way we can follow. “
The number of reported daily deaths in California rose from 55 at the end of October to 91 on Friday. That’s a 40% increase in 3 weeks. And given that the state hit an all-time high in new daily cases on Friday at 13,005, the number of daily deaths is sure to increase much, much more.
California Governor Gavin Newsom on Thursday announced a limited stay-at-home order. The order requires “generally non-essential work, travel and gatherings to stop between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. in counties on the purple level.” It comes into effect on Saturday evening. This is for every county in Southern California and 94% of the state’s population. It will remain in place until December 21.
Newsom’s office told Deadline on Thursday that the order – read it here – does not apply to workers in the entertainment industry, who are on the essential worker list and therefore an exception to the rule.
A separate set of LA County restrictions will take effect Friday night. These restrictions require that restaurants, wineries, breweries and non-essential businesses close between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m.
The other restrictions that took effect on Friday were:
– “Non-essential” domestic businesses such as retail stores, offices and personal care services will be limited to 25% occupancy
– Outdoor service in restaurants, wineries and brasseries will be limited to 50% of the maximum outdoor capacity
– Outdoor playrooms, miniature golf venues, go-kart tracks and batting cages will be limited to 50% of maximum outdoor capacity
– Customers of personal care companies must make appointments in advance, and no service that requires customers to remove their face mask can be offered
– Outdoor gatherings should be limited to a maximum of 15 people for a maximum of three households.
Additionally, if cases and / or hospitalizations continue to rise, LA County officials said restaurants, wineries and breweries will also be closed for in-person meals. That’s if the county reaches a five-day average of 4,000 or more cases, or if hospitalizations have exceeded 1,750.
The county had a three-day average of about 4,415 cases per day on Friday, meaning the number of cases over the next two days will be closely monitored. There were 1,298 people hospitalized in the county, Ferrer said.
If the county’s five-day daily average case exceeds 4,500, or if hospitalizations exceed 2,000, the county will issue a strict “Safer at Home” order like that imposed at the start of the pandemic. The ordinance would only allow essential workers to leave their homes or those who have access to essential services.
“If we can’t regain control, that’s unfortunately where we’re headed,” Ferrer said. “I still hope that we don’t have to go to Safer-at-Home and that we will be able in the next few days to start turning the tide.
City News Service contributed to this report.
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