Mongolia could one day become an arid desert

A review of weather conditions in East Asia over the past 260 years suggests that the region is currently embroiled in a dangerous cycle of heatwaves and droughts that could reshape the region forever., and perhaps turn the Mongolian plateau into a barren wasteland.

New research published today in Science paints an alarming picture of the current climate situation in East Asia. Contemporary heatwaves and droughts in the region are occurring more often today than 20 years ago, but as the new study points out, the current climate situation in the region has no precedent over the years. Last 260 years. The authors of the new article came to this conclusion after analyzing dark circles, which document droughts and heat waves dating back to the mid-18th century.

This is bad because the region will be even more sensitive to extreme hot and dry temperatures. The Mongolian plateau is currently a semi-arid region, but it may not remain so. The predicted type of climate, in which the region suffers despite even more heat waves and droughts, could make the region as dry and barren as parts of the southwestern United States, according to the study.

By analyzing tree rings from the Mongolian plateau, the researchers were able to find out when heat waves and droughts occurred in the past and when the ground was wet. The results showed that current temperatures in inland East Asia are unprecedented in the 260-year record.

“Conifers react strongly to unusually high temperatures,” said Linderholm. “By examining their growth rings, we can see their response to recent heat waves, and we can see that they don’t seem to have experienced anything like this in their very long lives,” Hans Linderholm, co -author and climatologist of the University of Gothenburg study, explained in a statement prepared by Utah State University.

The current problem is related to the excessive drying of the soil. Well, technically the problem has to do with anthropogenic climate change, but you know what I mean.

Evaporation produced by moist soil cools the air immediately above the surface. Without moisture, however, heat transfers directly to the air around the floor. This creates a negative feedback loop: high temperatures are increased by the drying of the soil, but as the soil dries, it causes even more heat. As to where it ends, “we can’t tell,” said Deliang Chen, co-author and researcher at Gothenburg University in Sweden.

Hyungjun Kim, co-author and climatologist at the University of Tokyo, said the process could lead to triggering an “irreversible feedback loop” that could accelerate the region “towards a warmer and drier future”.

This could eventually lead beyond an irreversible tipping point that would drag the region into a permanent state of aridity. And in fact, we may have already passed that tipping point, as the ‘semi-arid climate of this region has entered a new regime in which soil moisture no longer alleviates the unusually high temperature of the air, ”as the authors write in the study.

There are other warning signs to be aware of. Research in China suggests that lake sizes are shrinking on the Mongolian plateau. Over the past six years, scientists have documented a 26% decrease in the number of lakes larger than 0.4 square miles (1 square kilometer). But as the new research shows, it’s not just lakes that lose water, so too. The changing landscape will wreak havoc on local ecosystems, including large herbivores like wild sheep, antelopes and camels.

“It’s one thing to recognize that ‘normal’ climatic conditions are changing,” said Daniel Griffin, a University of Minnesota scientist who is not involved in the new study. “However, what concerns me most is thinking about the extreme events of the future: how serious could they become? And if the “new normal” is extremely hot and dry by historical standards, then future extremes may well be unlike anything seen before.

Importantly, the climate situation in Inner East Asia could influence the climate elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, as the weather in that part of the world is linked to global atmospheric circulations, according to the press release. Indeed, climate change knows few borders and its scope is long. Unfortunately, even the Tibetan plateau, with its majestic snow-capped mountains and vast meadows, is not immune.