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Every coast in the United States faces a rapid increase in high tide flooding. NASA says this is due to an “oscillation” in the moon’s orbit operating in tandem with the climate change-fueled rise sea levels.
New study from NASA and the University of Hawaii, published recently in the journal Nature Climate Change, warns that upcoming changes in the moon’s orbit could lead to record flooding on Earth over the next decade .
By mapping scenarios of sea level rise, flood thresholds, and astronomical cycles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), researchers found that flooding in U.S. coastal cities could be several times worse. in the 2030s, when the moon’s next “swing” is expected to begin. . They expect the floods to significantly damage infrastructure and move communities.
While the study highlights the dire situation facing coastal cities, the lunar oscillation is actually a natural phenomenon, first reported in 1728. The moon’s orbit is responsible for periods of tides highs and lows approximately every 18.6 years, and they are not dangerous in their own right.
“In the middle of the Moon’s 18.6-year cycle, Earth’s regular daily tides are suppressed: high tides are below normal and low tides are higher than normal,” says NASA. “In the other half of the cycle, the tides are amplified: high tides increase and low tides decrease. Global sea level rise is pushing high tides in one direction – higher. The 18.6-year lunar cycle counteracts the effect of sea level rise on high tides, and the other half increases the effect. “
But this time around, scientists are more concerned. With sea level rise due to climate change, the next high tide flooding is expected to be more intense and frequent than ever, exacerbating already gloomy predictions.
NOAA reported more than 600 such floods in 2019. Scientists expect the amount to be three to four times higher in the mid-1930s, after sea level rise was another ten years old. To progress.
According to the study, these floods will more often exceed flood thresholds across the country and can also occur in clusters lasting longer than a month, depending on the position of the moon, earth and sun. . In some alignments, flooding could occur as frequently as every day or every other day.
“Low areas near sea level are increasingly threatened and suffering due to increased flooding, and this will only get worse,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “The combination of the Moon’s gravitational pull, sea level rise and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coasts and around the world.”
Almost all of the mainland coasts of the United States, Hawaii and Guam are expected to face these effects. The sea level rises is already expected to render hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of coastline uninhabitable and potentially displace more than 100 million people worldwide by the end of the century.
The researchers hope their findings will lead to more dedicated efforts to prevent as much damage as possible, both to the environment and to people’s livelihoods, before it’s too late. Although floods at high tide don’t involve as much water as hurricanes, the real danger is their frequency.
“It’s the effect that has built up over time that will have an impact,” said lead author Phil Thompson. “If there are 10 or 15 floods a month, a business cannot keep operating with its parking lot underwater. People lose their jobs because they cannot get to work. become a public health problem. “
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