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Just over two weeks before the July 4 vacation, the number of COVID-19 patients in Alabama hospitals has more than doubled. Almost all of the metrics used to measure the pandemic are increasing here as the state grapples with the most contagious Delta variant.
Data from the Alabama Department of Public Health shows a sharp increase in patients hospitalized for coronavirus in public hospitals, up to 469 patients on Monday. That’s a 130% increase since July 1, when 204 people were being treated for the virus in Alabama hospitals.
[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]
Monday’s number was the highest total of hospitalizations in Alabama since March 10, when the number of hospitalizations and cases was at the end of the huge winter wave the state experienced in December, January and February. At the height of the pandemic during those months, hospitals in Alabama were treating up to 3,000 people a day.
Hospitalizations aren’t the only measure currently on the rise in Alabama.
The state’s coronavirus positivity rate – the percentage of tests done that come back positive – is also increasing. As of July 9, Alabama had the nation’s fifth highest positivity rate for PCR testing at 9%, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. As of July 16, the state’s positivity rate had risen to 12.4%, the highest since February 3.
It is currently the fourth highest in the United States.
[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]
Alabama’s positivity rate for PCR tests crossed 10% on July 12, the first time it has been this high since February 10.
And Alabama is not alone. Positivity rates are increasing nationwide, especially in states with low vaccination rates.
Alabama is dead last in the country in terms of the percentage of its population fully vaccinated at 33.7% on Monday, just behind Mississippi at 33.8%.
On the other end of the spectrum, many New England states have some of the highest vaccination rates in the country and the lowest positivity rates.
Use the buttons at the top of the map below to toggle between positivity rate and vaccination rate.
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The South in general has fallen behind in immunization rates, and many southern states are now paying the price with higher positivity rates. Seven of the nine states with the highest positivity rates are in the South. Of those seven, five are also among the bottom 10 in the country for vaccination rates.
Despite relatively weak testing, cases in Alabama are also the highest since mid-May, when a number of large backlogs caused a huge increase in the state’s 7-day average for new cases.
This average now stands at 815 cases per day. Outside of that backlog in May, the number of cases in Alabama has not been as high since March – although cases are still well below the highs seen here in December and January.
[Can’t see that chart? Click here.]
Despite the increase in cases and hospitalizations, Alabama has not seen a significant increase in coronavirus deaths. The state averages just under six deaths from the virus per day, and deaths here have been essentially flat for several months.
Deaths are a lagging indicator – they could increase in the coming weeks if hospitalizations and cases continue to rise. But there are signs that the total number of deaths in the state may not be as severe this time around, even as the state faces another wave of the virus. Although vaccination rates in Alabama remain low overall, older Alabamians – who are generally at increased risk – are much more likely to be vaccinated than anyone else.
More than 70% of Alabamians aged 65 and over have initiated a series of vaccines, according to ADPH, which means they have had at least one injection. This is compared to less than a quarter of 18-29 year olds and only 35% of 50-64 year olds.
Additionally, those who are vaccinated are much less likely to die than those who are not – in recent weeks, authorities reported that 94% of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Alabama were unvaccinated and 96% of not all COVID-19-related deaths were vaccinated. And experts from the University of Alabama at Birmingham said vaccines used in the United States are very effective in preventing serious illness and death, even from the new Delta variant.
Do you have an idea for an Alabama data story? Email Ramsey Archibald at [email protected], and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more stories about Alabama data here.
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