At the edge of a nervous crisis in Brexit?

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Reuters

"An agreement on Brexit could never be concluded," said the EU chief negotiator on Brexit in the morning following the day before the summit.

The agreement was there at nearly 90%, commented Michel Barnier in an interview on French radio Friday. But, he said, because of the stalemate on the Irish border, negotiations could fail.

How should we feel about this?

Reassured that so much has been agreed?

Worried about the impending threat of the collapse of the UK out of the EU next March, no trade agreement having been reached with anyone, anywhere else?

My advice, for the sake of our health, is to take a big step back and breathe.

At this late and high-pressure stage of Brexit negotiations, we in the United Kingdom or the United Kingdom tend to analyze and analyze all the comments made by European leaders.

If you decide to go there, it's a rugged mountain roller coaster.

In the last 15 hours, Barnier appeared pessimistic (ish), Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, said he was "convinced" of the conclusion of an agreement on Brexit, and the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, said that an agreement is close but it is more of an "emotional rather than rational impression".

The Frenchman Emmanuel Macron pointed his finger at the United Kingdom, prophesying that the Irish problem would never be solved without the political concessions of London.

And British newspapers are divided on the fact that Angela Merkel played a good or bad cop at the top of Brexit.

Confused? You do not have to be. All of this is part of the same picture.

European leaders want an agreement

We know that. Leaving the UK without any reciprocal agreement would be costly and chaotic for all concerned.

As we approach the end of the two years of exit negotiations authorized by European legislation, European leaders are aware of the need to make positive statements to reinforce Theresa May. They know that she is leaning against the political wall of Westminster.

We also see the EU making more concessions now to help push the negotiations to a successful conclusion. I'll be back in a moment.

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But where the EU is not ready to compromise, it is on its two main red lines in the negotiations:

• protection of the integrity of the single market – refusal to allow only the accession of the United Kingdom to the single market for goods (without, however, adhering to the single market for persons and services)
• request a legally binding guarantee to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, irrespective of economic relations between the UK and the EU after Brexit. This is what is called the backstop.

Now, to these emerging concessions from the EU

As Mr Barnier said Friday, and as we have discussed repeatedly in this blog, the guarantee of the Irish border is THE question that could result in the failure of the conclusion of a EU-UK exit agreement.

European leaders understood that the Prime Minister could not fully endorse the EU proposal that, as a fallback scenario and in the absence of better and viable solutions, Ireland North would remain in the European customs union and in the single market, necessary to avoid border controls on the island of Ireland.

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Theresa May says it would break the UK.

Thus, the EU is now willing to work on the British counterproposal (which it had previously rejected): the fallback scenario would imply that the whole of the UK remains temporarily in a customs union with the EU until a "post-Brexit friction" "free trade" is established between the EU and the United Kingdom.

This would guarantee an entirely British solution to the problem of the Irish border.

BUT

This is why both parties are dealing with hot spots. That is why, even if the European and British negotiators are working hard on the Irish border issue, everything might not result in an agreement in Brussels and the British Parliament.

For those with sturdy endurance …

Here are some of the main obstacles in the Irish labyrinth

• There is no time left to negotiate a tailor-made customs union – temporary or otherwise – between the European Union and the United Kingdom before the end of exit negotiations under EU law (two years after their creation).
• The EU will not accept as a guarantee at the Irish border a solution (a temporary customs union) that does not yet exist and that will have to be negotiated after Brexit. This, he says, would be an empty guarantee.
• Thus, the EU declares that the divorce agreement (also known as the withdrawal agreement) that both parties hope to still be able to sign this year will have to include its anti-fraud protection at the border Irish, specific to Northern Ireland (to which Theresa May stated that she would never sign) as it is the only guarantee "ready to go", called "all time". BUT as a sweetener intended to help the bitter drug to disappear, the EU could include a sentence stating that the work would begin as soon as possible on a customs union at the UK scale that would cancel projects to maintain Northern Ireland in the customs union.
• There is also a suggestion that has stormed the British media, that the post-Brexit transition period (in which the EU remains in the customs union and the single market, so that the Irish border is not yet affected) could now be extended for another year. to ensure that the UK-wide temporary customs union is ready in time for the specific support of Northern Ireland to never be used.

And in any case, the EU and the UK point out at every opportunity that the security system is never supposed to be fully implemented. It's a fallback position in the worst-case scenario.

• The EU says the political declaration on future EU-UK relations (which should also be approved this year to accompany the withdrawal agreement) makes it very clear that both parties are working on the type of relationship narrow economic that should talk about the possibility of a hard border on the island of Ireland disappear

Do you still have eyes crossed?

• But British critics can and will emphasize:

1. That the political declaration is not legally binding, while the withdrawal agreement, which contains the specific support of Northern Ireland, is as follows:
2. That the Prime Minister has promised to pull the United Kingdom out of a customs union with the European Union, so it is questionable that she voluntarily returns to the union after Brexit, in particular without a deadline by which the United Kingdom would finally leave it.
3. Whoever agrees to stay in the transition period – also known as BRINO (Brexit name only) for an additional year, adds to the previously agreed 20 months. It is now a "California Brexit Hotel". and continue to pour billions into the EU budget).
4. This offer to remain in a customs union with the EU until the conclusion of a permanent permanent trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom after Brexit means that it will be necessary still carry out regulatory controls between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. A customs union is not enough to eliminate the need for controls.
5. The EU said trade between the EU and the UK would never be possible if the United Kingdom pursued its declared intention to leave both the Customs Union and the European Single Market. .

• The EU fears more and more that "everything they suggest" is "never good enough" for the UK. A diplomat mumbled that the proposal to lengthen the transitional period had immediately been passed in the UK as an EU attempt to forever imprison the UK.

"Why would we want to stay stuck in Brexit limbo longer than necessary?" he asked with more than a note of despair.

"All our [EU] countries must spend their taxpayers' money on Brexit, for which we have never voted. Emergency planning without agreement, ministries devoted to Brexit, it costs a fortune in time and money that could be spent on a much more constructive task for us. "

Outside the Irish border, the changing concerns of European leaders who are still hoping for a successful Brexit are the shifting sands of British politics.

They know that the terms of the exit of the United Kingdom in Brussels are only half of the battle.