How to best describe the chances of victory of France or Croatia – Quartz



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The tongue is spongy and imprecise. Does "I think France will win the World Cup" mean that you are almost certain that they will win, or does that mean you think that they just have a slight advantage? It could be either. Including words like "maybe", "likely" and "maybe" can help but are all perceived differently.

What about "I think France has a chance to win the World Cup"? It's more accurate, but engaging in a single figure can be foolhardy If there is no data to save it, which brings us to our tool to help you, it gives you the perfect word to use depending on the likelihood that you think something should happen.

First of all, think of something you want to predict for example, "France wins the World Cup" or "I become a billionaire in my lifetime." If you to put a number, what is your best estimate of how likely it is?

is your number with the nearest term Results are based on thousands of actual responses to an online survey created by Andrew Mauboussin, a data scientist at Twitter, and his father Michael, director of research at Bl ueMountain Capital Management.

The survey asks people to assign percentages to squishy, ​​probabilistic words like "probably" and "likely", providing a clearer clarity about how they interpret each of them. ;them. Up to now, nearly 2,000 people responded to their survey

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