In the balance: the compression of the Australian population

From White Australia to One Nation

The disconnect about the population and immigration is understandable for a young nation of migrants. Half of us were born abroad or had at least one parent who was there.

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Despite a history that includes a white Australian policy, the emergence of One Nation, and a political concern with the refugees in the boats, few countries have managed immigration as well as l & rsquo; Australia. The OECD has said so much.

Few countries are experiencing such rapid and urban growth either. Australia's growth is among the highest in the rich world, but unlike other countries focuses on only two cities, Sydney and Melbourne. The latter has an expansion rate of 3% which, if left unchecked, will give it a population the size of London by the mid – century.

We are increasingly recognizing the tightening of prices, transportation, services and the environment. Three or four years ago it would have seemed rude to say "we are full". Until last year, Australia had resisted the toxic immigration lines that threatened democracies in Europe and had contributed to the advent of Brexit in the United Kingdom. a far-right recovery in Germany, and Donald Trump in the United States.

But demographic pressure has placed immigration at the center of Australian politics, notably by the Conservatives of the Turnbull government, including former prime minister Tony Abbott

. Interior Minister Peter Dutton, in particular, heard and aroused discontent. In the midst of calls for the acceleration of immigration for "persecuted" South Africans and action against "African gangs" in Victoria, it has reduced approvals for permanent arrivals from migrants, replaced 457 temporary work visas and hinted at even stricter rules. Other visas

Experts now see big cuts to immigration as inevitable under the coalition. But what is the logic? How should such decisions be made?

More Consumers, please

Populating or perishing was the warning when, 70 years ago, Australia came out of World War II as a nerve nation of only 7 million on a vast island continent with vast unguarded borders. Immigration would be our savior.

Population – and we are now 25 million – was still on the money too. These are the customers for bread and clothes, computers and homes, for companies like Coles, Woolworths and AV Jennings.

Population growth is a combination of natural increase, births relative to deaths, and migration migration overseas. As our birth rate is low, immigration is the main factor contributing to our growth and (with the exception of Peter Costello's "one for the country" exhortation), the only real governments with leverage must influence it

. ] The most important lobby group in the debates on population and immigration policy is the business world. The permanent immigration program – the goal of 190,000 has been renamed "ceiling" by the Coalition – encompasses programs on skills, family and refugees / humanitarian for decades.

Then there is uncapped temporary immigration. This includes a myriad of visas, through which Australia welcomes about 1.5 million people at a time, including students, vacationers, skilled and unskilled temporary workers.

About 50,000 temporary migrants arrive more each year, giving us Many temporary migrants are students, contributing to a burgeoning education industry "srcset =" https://static.ffx.io/ images / $ zoom_0.497% 2C $ multiply_0.7252124645892352% 2C $ ratio_1.776846% 2C $ width_1059% 2C $ x_0% 2C $ y_37 / t_crop_custom / t_sharpen% 2Cq_auto% 2Cf_auto / c4760a674cd265899373b2f88cdb49d159c17e08 "itemprop =" image "/> [19659023] Many temporary migrants are students, contributing to a thriving education industry.

Photo: Imaginechina

No one questions the fact that one such contribution contributes to the annual GDP growth of Australia.And, according to Brendan Coates, of the Grattan Institute, population growth "makes the figures favorable to governments wishing to avoid the stigma of a recession

But GDP tells us nothing about the impact of growth demographics on our individual well-being.

The most important measure is GDP per capita or per person. It is important to note that since the Howard years in particular, Australian immigration policy is shamelessly focusing on skills and youth.

Migrants tend to be younger than the existing population and therefore more likely to work. About 84% of migrants who arrived in 2015-2016 were under 40, compared to 54% of the resident population.

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By their relative youth, migrants contribute to slowing the aging of the population – we know as a "demographic dividend" – giving Australia an economic advantage over low-income countries. Immigration, such as Japan.

As migrants tend to be more skilled, they are also likely to be more productive

"said Coates," because, by definition, they have already got up and left.

Young workers are also at the stage of their lives when their taxable income is usually at their highest level, but government services, such as health, education, and care for the elderly, are the lowest, including temporary migrants, who are not entitled to services and benefits, including social assistance and health insurance

. therefore, migrants are a boon to bo

Milking the cow of immigration

Abul Rizvi has been immersed in immigration policy for decades, including as deputy secretary from the immigration department in the Howard years. He says that Victoria and NSW have been great winners of immigration, especially legions of international students

"That 's why we call education an industry. "export," he notes. "The people who come here do more than pay their own way, we profit from it."

Perhaps too much, given the research, including by The Age / SMH, which highlights the Systemic underpayment and exploitation of low-skilled workers on temporary visas, especially in the hospitality industry

To date, however, there is little clear evidence of the impact more of permanent migrant workers on wages or jobs.

After commissioning research for a major 2016 immigration report, Productivity The Commission concluded that, overall, recent immigrants had a "negligible impact" on workers' wages and employment

Thus, in the context of the narrow economic parameter of GDP per capita, immigration is an important advantage. In 2015, the intergenerational report of the government revealed that over the last 40 years, population growth has contributed to nearly 18% of the average annual growth of 1.7% of GDP per capita, of which the average annual growth rate of Australia has benefited.

In 2016, the Productivity Commission estimated that the continued integration of younger and skilled migrants could raise per capita GDP by up to 7% in 2060 compared to net migration. zero during this period.

Therefore, this would almost certainly mean a reduction in economic growth, both in aggregate and per capita terms. The significance of the impact would depend on the magnitude of the cuts and programs

In government statements up to now, they have not been clear.

However, national GDP figures reveal only a part of the current situation. cost-benefit history of the population. They do not take into account, for example, the fact that immigrants gather in two big cities. And from the point of view of Sydney and Melbourne, the vision is very different.

During the decade leading up to 2016, Australia has grown by more than 6 million, capital cities taking up three quarters of the rise. Melbourne and Sydney took nearly 60%, or 3.6 million people. Any increase or reduction in immigration will therefore have disproportionate consequences for NSW and especially for Victoria.

Permanent migrants in particular are attracted by well-paying "knowledge" jobs, increasingly concentrated in central Sydney and Melbourne, where the share of total metropolitan employment has increased to 22, 4% and 20.5% respectively over the 10 years up to 2016.

But housing supply has not kept up with demand, an important factor in the decline of the l & 39; Housing affordability, with government withdrawal from Census data show that population growth – primarily migration – has outpaced the construction of new housing in Australia between 2006 and 2016, particularly in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.

The Grattan Institute argues that the main obstacle to housing construction is the planning of rules that delay or prevent development, particularly in the ll-to-do, jealously guarded middle suburbs . It is said that new housing is pushed to the margins and beyond good transportation, services and well-paying jobs in terms of knowledge.

Where there is public transport, it is packed. For those who do not, travel times have blown over the past decade, a heavy burden for commuters and their families.

Grattan says governments have not helped their disproportionate spending on infrastructure in marginal seats rather than in cities. In a contradictory conclusion to a major housing study earlier this year, Grattan found that if planning is not improved to allow for more and better localized housing, the federal government should withdraw migration numbers.

Water, Farms and Beach

The high costs of population growth are just one of the costs of population growth.

There are also rising costs of services such as water, especially when the sustainable use of natural resources is exhausted. become necessary.

"This raises the cost of living for the Australian community," concluded the Productivity Commission in 2016.

Next, the agricultural and food markets are being destroyed by the disappearance of habitats and species and the reduction of fish stocks, while at the same time they are no longer in wait (19659005). GDP estimates of immigration. But they should be measured, says the Productivity Commission, which has called for a national population policy, compiled with states and the wider community, to help guide decisions on our long-term admission of immigrants

Marcus Spiller is one of the founders of the consulting firm in Economics and Planning SGS, largely responsible for the squeeze of the population and the likely reductions in immigration. He has important practices in Sydney and Melbourne. He says the problem is not that we have too many migrants, but government negligence – federal and state – in housing, infrastructure and planning.

He says that the Commonwealth – which would include Peter Dutton and Tony Abbott – has no consistent housing. Transport policy has virtually left social housing vacant and chooses political winners when it finances road and rail projects.

The eminent independent economist Saul Eslake also criticizes city planning, noting that Australia is experiencing faster population growth rates. "

The Turnbull government is now considering appeals, including from backbenchers, such as Australian Senator Dean Smith, for a population policy.

An eye of the day. bird, a national policy to guide planning, including a strategy for the installation of migrants in rural towns and regional cities, could be a major breakthrough in Australian planning C & # 39; is an idea that recalls the great ideas of the post-war years, when Eslake said that people tended to believe that governments were right about population figures, planning, and immigration.

Confidence in politicians is in short supply these days.As bipartisanship.And in a world where immigration seems to be bad for political affairs, if not for GDP, politicians worry less about foreigners. 9659006] Abul Rizvi says that it should be possible to have a rational discussion about the population and immigration, the economy and planning. But he says it takes leadership, skill and courage.

"I would have thought the prime minister had the skills to do it." The question is, does he have the courage to do it?

The population and immigration are anything but black and white.