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Think back to that time last year. Environment MP Scott Ludlam shocked the nation when he revealed that he had dual citizenship with New Zealand – a situation that prevented him from sitting in Parliament, in accordance with the law. Article 44 of the Constitution.
The revelation sparked a wave of similar resignations. by-elections, but after a while, everything has calmed down again.
Another Labor MP – Tim Hammond – resigned to spend time with his family, so all Labor MPs or on the other side were caught in section 44.
Five Elections Partials take place this weekend.
The frenzy of polling day activity has been dubbed "Super Saturday"
If you're not sure what it means, a by-election is triggered from the House of Representatives dies, goes to prison or is deemed ineligible to hold office. This does not mean that the whole country has the right to vote – only voters registered in these specific seats.
The Senate does not hold by-elections because parties themselves may choose substitutes for ineligible senators. So, if a national senator resigns, the national party can choose the one who will fill his place
Who will go to the polls?
Five electorates in four states will go to the polls this weekend.
There are two in Western Australia – the Perth electorate (detained until recently by Tim Hammond) and Fremantle, owned by Josh Wilson. They are quite safe Labor Party seats, and the Liberal Party has announced that it would not even present candidates there.
Then there is the Mayo seat in South Australia. Rebekha Sharkie of the Alliance Center (the new name of Nick Xenophon's former party), took her name from the Liberal Party in the 2016 federal election. She is now facing a challenge from Georgina Downer, whose father – Alexander – has held the siege for 24 years. Until Rebekha Sharkie burst, the electorate had been a safe liberal seat, which means that the Alliance Center has a hard fight to keep it.
This is a similar story for the Longman seat in Queensland. Susan Lamb, a hard-working worker, won this seat with a very slim majority – only 0.8% – in 2016. She had fallen into the hands of the Labor Party only once in her history, making it an electorate historically inclined to the LNP.
The last electorate to go to a by-election Saturday is Braddon's headquarters in Tasmania. Worker Justine Keay won with a 2.2 percent margin in the 2016 election, although the seat itself has oscillated between Labor and Liberal since its inception.
Recent polls have both parties neck and neck, but the preferences of candidate and independent Craig Garland can help influence the results in Braddon.
What does the results mean for Malcolm Turnbull?
Because none of the seats that are disputed belong to the Coalition (that is the formal agreement between the Liberal Party and the Nationals), there is no risk that the government falls if their candidates hurt the by-elections.
In other words, if the Liberal candidates do not win these seats, the government will continue as usual. 19659002] The risk here is mainly for work.
Historically, if there is a change of hands at a by-election, this generally favors opposition, as pointed out Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
The Coalition describes the by-elections as a challenge for opposition leader Bill Shorten. If the Labor Party loses these seats, they reject it
But the two seats in danger of falling – Longman and Braddon – are marginal and could have fallen in the next elections anyway
. go so far in determining the results this time around. The situation we are in now, with multiple by-elections triggered by the citizenship crisis, is unprecedented.
What period can they call the election?
What we know if a strong participation of the Coalition in by-elections could lead to increasing pressure for early elections.
called by May next year, but it belongs to Malcolm Turnbull when he pulls the trigger.
He said quite regularly that elections will be held next year, but if there is a big movement towards the Coalition, then he might be tempted to ride the wave of popularity and the future. go early. He could call it for this year, if he wanted it.
It's a big risk, though. Since the last federal election in July 2016, the Coalition has not been in the lead in the polls.
"Bill Shorten's Labor would have been elected to the government if the elections were held last Saturday," Terror Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese said, "Bill Shorten has never beaten Malcolm Turnbull to be the favorite Prime Minister. Its net approval rating is currently -24, compared to that of Mr. Turnbull -8
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