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6 pm Thursday, July 5, Guam time: Tropical storm warnings for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan were canceled, according to the National Weather Service. At 4 pm, Tropical Storm Maria was 115 miles northwest of Guam and was heading northwest at 9 mph, with sustained winds of 70 mph in the center. Tropical storm winds extend 140 kilometers north of the storm center and 100 miles south.
3:45 pm Thursday, July 5, Guam time: The tropical storm warning for Guam was canceled, but it remains lifted for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to Guam Homeland Security / Bureau of Civil Protection.
But Guam is far from the woods. A quick check of the back wind and rain bands from tropical storm Maria shows that the island is still diving several hours of heavy rain and wind.
A flood illuminates until Friday morning for the four islands. A storm and wind warning remains lifted for Guam International Airport until 6 pm. Thursday. This thing is far from over. And Okinawa could be next.
12:30 p.m. Thursday, July 5, Guam time: A tropical storm warning was extended to the four main islands of Mariana, Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Although Tropical Storm Maria has begun to come out of the Mariana Islands, her backstrips always end on a bad Thursday afternoon and should continue into the evening.
And Maria leaves the Marianas, which places Okinawa in her viewfinder. The joint typhoon warning center and prediction models point to possible tracks either just north of Okinawa, or perhaps directly on Thursday.
At 10 am, Maria was 65 miles northwest of Guam and 75 miles west of 10 mph, packing steady winds of 69 mph and gusts of 86 mph . Tropical storm winds are currently extending 90 miles north and 80 miles south of the center.
Maria is expected to continue north-northwest during the next few days, culminating as the second super typhoon of the season. Sustained winds and gusts of 190 mph blow in the middle of Sunday morning
. It is then planned to turn northwest Sunday morning and do what appears to be a direct descent to Okinawa. It is expected that Maria is still packing sustained winds of 132 mph and bursts of 161 mph at 10 am Tuesday at the approach of Okinawa
however, there is uncertainty as to whether it strikes Okinawa directly. JTWC reports a spread of nearly 300 miles among model solutions. This one deserves considerable attention.
7:15 am Thursday, July 5, Guam time : It's happening. Tropical Storm Maria is fortified with strong stormy winds, with heavy rain and already visible effects on Guam.
At 4 am, Maria was 7 miles south of Andersen Air Base and 17 miles northeast of the capital Hagatna, heading north-northwest at 10 mph with winds sustained 65 mph and gusts of 81 mph. Maria is expected to move slowly northwest of the island throughout the day, and heavy rains and bursts should continue throughout the morning, possibly in the afternoon [19659009]. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota with a tropical storm watch for Tinian and Saipan. Rota, Tinian and Saipan remain in readiness 2, while Guam remains in COR 4.
From the Department of Homeland Security / Civil Protection Bureau:
A storm warning and a wind advisory are in effect for Guam International Airport until 6 pm Thursday evening. Thunderstorms are possible within 23 miles of the airport. Winds are forecast from the east-northeast at 29 mph with gusts to 44 mph in the showers, moving east-south at 39 mph with gusts to 54 mph in the showers Thursday around noon. Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan until Friday morning. Heavy rains are expected as Maria crosses the Marianas on Thursday. Due to its relatively slow displacement, there is a potential for excessive rainfall and sudden floods, especially across Guam and Rota. A rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is possible with locally higher amounts, especially for Guam and Rota.
As for the long run, the last track of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to take Maria in the general direction of Okinawa. While it remains on its current trajectory, JTWC predicts that Maria will become the second super typhoon of the Pacific Northwest season, reaching sustained winds of 155 mph and bursts of 190 mph at 4 o'clock on Sunday, then decreasing slightly to 250 miles to the east. -South East of Kadena Air Force Base at 4:00 am Tuesday
But forecast models continue to be scattered. The GFS ensemble represents a trail just north of Okinawa, some models suggesting a direct impact on the island while others point to the center of Kyushu; the CMC set provides for a more direct performance on Okinawa with some variations
1 pm Thursday, July 5, Guam time: Maria was turned into a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
At ten o'clock in the evening, Maria was 78 miles south-south-east of Andersen Air Base, heading west-northwest at 9 o'clock in the morning. mph and has intensified to 40 mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. If she stays on her current trajectory, Maria should pass 9 miles southwest of the Naval Station, aka "Big Navy", at 5 am Thursday, with sustained winds of 46 mph and gusts of 58 mph in the center . According to the National Weather Service and Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Defense, gusts of 50 mph in the heaviest showers are expected to be between 40 and 45 mph. The worst conditions are expected Thursday morning as Maria moves away from the Mariana Islands to the northwest.
Guam remains in readiness 4, with a tropical storm warning for Guam and Rota and a tropical storm for Tinian and Saipan and a flash-flood watch for the four islands. Rota remains in COR 2 while Saipan and Tinian remain in COR 3. Heavy rains and floods are expected, especially for Guam and Rota, with 4 to 6 inches possible.
Moving away from the Marianas, Maria is expected to gradually intensify and reach a sustained high winds of 115 mph and gusts of 144 mph at 22 pm Sunday, about 360 miles to the 39th. east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa.
Although the JTWC trail seems to take Maria near Okinawa, the forecast patterns remain scattered, most being agreed on a path southwest of Kyushu. on the eastern part of the Korean peninsula. Some models represent a path to Okinawa; others take it just above Kyushu and in the Sea of Japan, or East Sea.
22:00 Wednesday, July 4, Guam Weather : The 10W depression continues to wobble, though it's pretty clear that it will pass just over Guam or just north through the Rota Canal, with heavy rain and strong winds going by, according to Guam Homeland Security / Civil Protection Bureau.
Destructive winds between 40 and 45 mph with gusts of 50 mph in stronger showers are forecast for the closest approach point. The worst conditions are expected Thursday morning as 10W leave Guam and the Mariana Islands.
Guam remains in condition 4, with a tropical storm warning for Guam and Rota and a tropical storm for Tinian and Saipan. a flash-flood watch for the four islands. COR 3 remains in effect for Tinian, Rota and Saipan. Heavy rains and floods are expected, especially for Guam and Rota, with 4 to 6 inches possible.
7:15 pm Wednesday, July 4, Guam time: The 10W tropical depression has slightly intensified and its path has bounced towards the northern tip of Guam, which is expected to face a rainstorm on Wednesday night. and Thursday morning.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota, a tropical storm watch for Tinian and Saipan, and a flash flood watch for the four islands, according to the National Weather Service and the Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Defense. [19659002] NWS plans to build a 10W TD to rake the island with winds of 35 to 40mph and gusts of 50mph, and between 4 to 6 inches of rain overnight Wednesday to Thursday. The worst part should arrive around 4 or 5 am
At 4 pm, TD 10W was 107 miles southeast of Hagatna, the capital of the island, moving northward. northwest at 8 mph. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center [10] it is expected that 10W cut the northern tip of Guam, 7 miles northeast of Andersen Air Base and 30 miles southwest of Rota about 7 miles. I am at Thursday
In the long run, the forecast trajectory takes it in the general direction of Okinawa, peaking at 110 mph from sustained winds and at 132 mph from gusts at 4 pm. Sunday, about 500 miles east-southeast of the Kadena Air Base, according to the JTWC
. But prediction models remain everywhere on the ground. The spread remains about 800-900 miles from Okinawa to Kyoto, with an equal chance of hitting anywhere or in between. This one pays considerable attention.
13:30 Wednesday, July 4, Guam Time: The most recent announcement of Guam Homeland Security and the Office of Civil Protection warns residents of the island of S & D. expect the worst conditions of the tropical depression 10W Thursday between 4 and 5 am. slowed down somewhat, moving northwest at only 5 mph. At 10:00 am, the storm was 167 miles southeast of Andersen Air Base, maintaining 29 mph sustained winds and 40 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center [19659009]. Pass 30 miles southwest of Andersen Air Base and make an almost direct hit on the naval station, aka "Big Navy", at 7 o'clock on Thursday. It is expected to strengthen slightly with the approach of Guam, the island waiting between 4 and 6 inches of rain. According to the National Meteorological Service, a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Guam and Rota Islands, while a tropical storm remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan.
Again, it is still too early to say which part of Japan 10W will affect. The forecast models remain varied, with outliers representing a track to Okinawa while the outliers in the East show that it is heading towards Kyushu, Shikoku and Western Honshu, and the rest between the two.
7:30 Wednesday, July 4, Guam Time: Tropical Depression The 10W trajectory has shifted to the west, with Guam being its first destination early Thursday morning while it is strengthens By 4 am, 10W was 192 miles southeast of Andersen Air Base, moving west at 10 mph and remaining steady at 29 mph. sustained winds and 40 mph gusts. If it stays on its current course, 10W must pass 23 miles southwest of the Naval Station, aka "Big Navy" and 46 miles southwest of Andersen Air Base between 2 and 3 am Thursday, with 40 mph winds and gusts of 52 mph in the center
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, with destructive winds of 39 mph or more expected within 24 hours, according to the National Weather Service. Guam remains in preparation condition 4; I expect it to improve on Wednesday morning. Rota, Tinian and Saipan all remain under the surveillance of tropical storms and in COR 3.
Looking well before the weekend, the JTWC forecast trail gives the impression that 10W could be headed in the general direction d & # 39; Okinawa. But the prediction models tell a slightly different tale, a vast spread with most models taking it to Kyushu. Some aberrations say West Honshu and Shikoku, with yet another pointing to Okinawa. It's too early to say.
12:30 Wednesday, July 4, Guam Time: Happy Independence Day
The 10W Tropical Depression has been gaining momentum towards the front, and its track continues to stir a little; According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, it is now planned to make an almost direct hit on Rota and move northeast from Andersen Air Base on Thursday
at 10 pm, 10W was 208 miles to the south. is from Andersen. and if it remains stable at 29 mph with sustained winds and 40 mph gusts.
If 10W stays on its current trajectory, it will pass almost directly to Rota and 42 miles northeast of Andersen between 1am and 2am. -Mph sustained winds and gusts of 58 mph.
Guam remains in seasonal state of preparedness 4, according to Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Protection. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, according to the National Weather Service
Rota, Tinian and Saipan to the northeast remain in COR 3, with a tropical storm watch in effect.
And pretty appropriate for a storm that affects Guam: If it becomes a named storm, 10W will call Maria, a chamorro woman's name. Well, Maria can be pretty much any nationality, but the name has been loaned to the typhoon list of the Japan Meteorological Agency by Guam.
Where 10W after leaving the Marianas continues to be an interrogation point to agree on a trail to southwestern Japan, just to the northeast of it. Okinawa.
JTWC plans to peak at 10W with sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of 132 mph by 22:00. On Saturday, at this time, it is expected to be 273 miles southwest of Japan's Iwo Jima.
6:30 pm Tuesday, July 3, Guam time: The forecast trajectory of the 10W tropical depression was adjusted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. He is now on track to sneak in between Tinian and Rota by mid-morning Thursday, possibly sparing Guam.
At 4 pm, 10W was about 300 miles southeast of Andersen Air Base. stabilizing at sustained winds of 29 mph and gusts of 40 mph
where it remains on its current new course, 10W is expected to pass 17 miles southwest of Tinian and 44 miles northeast of Rota between 10 am and 1 pm Thursday, when it acquires force equivalent to the Category 1 typhoon, sustained winds of 75 mph and gusts of 92 mph in the center
Saipan, Tinian and Rota are in state 3, which means destructive winds of 58 mph or more. According to the Joint Information Center of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, it is possible to do so within 48 hours.
Guam stays in the COR 4 seasonal, but also stays in a tropical storm warning, according to the National Weather Service. It is expected that 10W will pass 83 miles northeast of Andersen on Thursday at 9am
Mariana Islands, 10W should continue northwestward in the general direction of Japan. Still too early to say whether it will affect Okinawa or the main islands of Japan. JTWC projects that 10W will reach its maximum at 115 mph (sustained winds) and 144 mph (40 mph) at 16:00. Saturday, still far from the earth
The forecast models are increasingly in agreement, but there is still a vast spread, some taking 10W to Okinawa, others to the center of Honshu and Shikoku. Tuesday, July 3, Guam time: Guam is now under a tropical storm warning, according to the National Weather Service. Tinian, Rota and Saipan have entered condition 3, which means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, according to the Commonwealth Common Information Center of Northern Marianas.
13:30 Tuesday, July 3, Guam Time: It is generally assumed that the new 10W tropical depression will intensify rapidly by moving northwest over the very warm waters of the Pacific in summer.
It remains to be seen where she will go At 10 am, 10W was 236 miles south-southeast of Andersen Air Base, crawling north-northwest at 6 mph, now at 29 mph and 40 mph. It is expected that the forecast trail will take it just southwest of Guam late Wednesday night, 68 miles southwest of the naval station, also known as "Big Navy", circa 22 hours. On Wednesday, sustained winds of 63 mph and gusts of 81 mph in the center were observed.
According to the National Weather Service, tropical storm monitoring is in effect for the Guam and Rota Islands. Guam can expect sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts reaching 40 mph with scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
From there, 10W is expected to make its way to the northwest, wig-wagging its way in the general direction of Japan Iwo and Daito Islands. It is expected to reach sustained winds of 121 mph and gusts of 150 mph by Saturday at 9 am, but it is expected to stay away from the major landmasses at that time.
Forecasting models remain everywhere. The storm is very young. It will take a day or three before these models will install and a track will become more pronounced.
7:15 am Tuesday, July 3, Guam time: Tropical depression 10W http: // www. metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1018.gif spawned overnight on Monday in the south-east of Guam, and is expected to move north-west after the Mariana Islands, in the general direction of Japan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
At 4 am, 10 nautical miles were 275 miles south-southeast of Guam, northwesterly at 9 mph with sustained winds of 29 mph and gusts of 40 mph. mi / h. It is developing relatively quickly and should follow the northwest in the general direction of Japan.
The prediction models are scattered on the lot at this point, some showing a straight north-westerly trajectory to Okinawa and others a curve further north to the main islands of Japan, with an arrival of Here a week or more. The initial JTWC prediction track separates the difference. This one is to watch closely.
17:30 Monday, July 2, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert was issued on a system developing about 300 miles southeast of Guam, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center [19659009]. rather quickly and could affect Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands from here Wednesday or Thursday. Already, the National Weather Service has issued a special weather report for the Marianas, indicating that winds between 15 and 25 mph and gusts of up to 35 mph with rainfall of between 3 and 5 inches, mainly on Guam and Rota. [19659007ÀcestadelesmodèlesdeprévisionsontomniprésentscertainssuggérantqueleJaponestunecibleprobableetd'autresreprésentantdespistesdroitesàOkinawaquivienttoutjustedefiniravecletyphonPrapiroonouàTaiwan
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