Trump changes the NATO agenda in defense spending

The hall filled to capacity and beyond. Latecomers were forbidden.

This was not on the published program. We were expected to wait for a dull and predictable closing speech by Norwegian NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg, who would have undoubtedly regurgitated the lines of a strong alliance that he had produced all week during the week. Summit of NATO Leaders in 2018.

Trump. He had escaped from a meeting on NATO operations in Afghanistan, because he had something to say.

A Trump press conference is a rare and remarkable thing – it has not been given on American soil all year long. It's an area of ​​fuzzy syntax, questionable claims and hypnotic power

A place where some reporters can not help laughing at the absurdity or insignificance of this which has just been said, and others applaud what they think they have heard. A place where even experienced hacks hesitate when their turn comes to ask a question, as their willingness to get new information fights their desire to debate what we just told them.

But let's go back a bit. "All 28 NATO countries are committed to increasing defense investment and investing 2% of GDP in our collective security," he said. "This commitment makes it clear that NATO will not be complacent, our alliance will reverse the decline in defense spending and rise to meet the challenges we face in the 21st century."

The President saying these words was Barack Obama. The summit was held in 2014 on a lush golf course near Cardiff, Wales.

The new promise to increase defense spending after the lull in the post-cold-war era was provoked by a sudden and disturbing Russian aggression. Russia had annexed Crimea and was linked to separatist fighting in Ukraine

After years when only NATO projects were far from its borders, the defense pact realized that it was rusty and unpredictable. that Russia has pushed more to the west.

Since then, the threat has become increasingly clear, but Europe has mostly relied on its allies for help, rather than inflating its physical defenses. There have been NATO war games, exercises and troop placements in the Balkans and other points in the east, and the repositioning of troop bases and stores. # 39; s equipment. But the defense budgets are not working, and Europe has other worries to be made.

This year, only five NATO nations will reach the helm of the 2% promised in Cardiff, three more should be, according to Stoltenberg. Three NATO countries will spend less than half of this amount on defense. A dozen more revealed plans to reach the goal by 2024.

The 2 percent figure was still an arbitrary line. It could fluctuate not only with defense spending but also with the economy of a country – in 2009, the United States could boast of spending more than 5% of its GDP on defense because its economy has resorbed after the financial crisis. When the United States recovered, the figure dropped (now to 3.5%, although Trump claimed that it was above 4%).

By way of comparison, Australia plans to reach the 2% mark in a few years, thanks to a series of major new investments in military equipment.

In Brussels, Trump was not impressed – first, with Europe's defense spending, then (in a steep and probably unplanned ambush) with 2% on Wednesday, he (or someone from his team) endorsed the official summit declaration, in which the Allies said that they "reaffirmed our unwavering commitment to all aspects of the commitment of all." investment in defense ". agreed at the 2014 Wales Summit, and submit credible national plans for its implementation. "

But the ununified Trump was never going to really affirm an unwavering commitment to an Obama era plan." He went on to argue that night at an official dinner. and then Thursday morning, when he arrived half an hour late at the summit, but then insisted that his colleagues discuss the issue of sharing the burden of defense. Ukraine and Afghanistan.

According to several credible reports, he threatened that the United States "go it alone" in defense – a threat that many officials and ambassadors have interpreted alliance – unless Europe has dramatically increased defense spending in a short time, he would have met "a total silence stunned and then a total panic," said a source.

Stoltenberg ordered a change in the agenda.NAT partners – including the m Australian defense minister, Marise Payne – was kicked out of the room at an emergency meeting of NATO leaders convened to debate the matter. Aka, appease the American president.

When he appeared on stage in front of the media a few hours later, Trump claimed a remarkable victory.

He had created the crisis by his own expectations, and now he has resolved the He said that he was a "very stable genius".

For years, he said, the presidents came to NATO and talked about the increase in defense spending

. The figure of 2% had been "a range, a goal … an amorphous figure" which, through its harsh negotiations, had been transformed into a "real commitment"

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Last year, American allies had spent 33 billion dollars more in defense. And that, he stressed repeatedly, was due to his strong words at the NATO summit in 2017.

Now he could announce that there had been "a tremendous amount of progress "And his allies were all in agreement for"

Yes, 2%, but "it will go up a bit higher than that.

"We are doing figures like they have never done before," he said.

A cynic would see a crude transactional plan under Trump's approach.

On Wednesday, he did everything possible to disrupt (on reservations about national security, which is not only the case) a plan to open a new pipeline connecting Russia to Germany – at a time when the United States is massively increasing its exports of natural gas, but at a higher price than that of Russia

. defense equipment, "so much better than anyone", he "the United States make by far the best jet planes, the best missiles, the best guns", and if a poorer member of NATO could not to afford them all, "we'll help them a little, make sure they can"

It was almost the scheming of a car salesman.

Nonetheless, Trump was loudly declaiming , his dream would be for the United States (and probably all his allies, gradually repaying their leasing plans "We want peace everywhere," he said, messianically, "We want to solve problems, we seek the We build the army because I believe by force that you get peace. "

That, by the way, was the ultimate dream for his summit with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on Monday

" Never again nuclear weapons in the world … no more wars or conflicts, no more for all diseases … we will go from there. "

Monday, Trump said that he would discuss with the Russian President Syria, and" about [election] interference, I will be asking this question again … he can deny it, c & # 39; is one of those things, all I can say, is "you did it?" and "do not do it again".

He left open the idea of ​​recognizing the Crimea of ​​Russia – a gesture that would horrify his allies and undermine the network of sanctions put in place after the illegal annexation of the Ukrainian province by Russia.

Trump accused Obama of allowing annexation – "I would not allow this to happen" – but he said "what will happen to Crimea, that I can not He pointed out that Russia had built a new bridge to Crimea and spent billions on a submarine port.

He even suggested discussing NATO's military exercises in Europe from the East – exercises recognized in 2014 to deter the Russians, and to reassure the easternmost members of NATO that the NATO Defense Pact was still in force , and that allies would come to their aid if their borders were violated

"Maybe we'll talk about it." global summit: "It could lead to something productive."

There is nothing had no mention of Novichok, the chemical weapon returned to Russia that killed an innocent British citizen on English soil a few days ago. [19659002] Putin: "He is a competitor … he is not my enemy. Is he a friend? I do not know. "

" In the end, he is a competitor … he's not my enemy and I hope someday, maybe he'll be a friend . But I do not know him very well.

"I hope we can get along."

One hour after Trump's Air Force roared over NATO HQ and the UK, Stoltenberg I had his "moment" on the scene.

It was a "very good summit," he said. There had been frank discussions and the allies had heard Trump's message "loud and clear"

Could he identify the big new financial commitments that Trump had announced that he had won? Well no. Stoltenberg underlined the official statement of the day before. (19659002) Beyond that, there was a "new sense of urgency" and an agreement to "redouble efforts" to increase defense spending, says Stoltenberg. 19659002] "The most important thing is substance, and basically this summit delivered," he said.

But the room was half empty. The Trump Circus had already advanced.