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This is exactly how we’ll know the pandemic is over, say experts
As we approach a year since lockdowns began in the United States, Americans are anxious to know when the pandemic is finally over. It’s hard to predict when everything will return to normal, however, experts have a good idea of the decline in COVID cases and deaths in the country to consider the pandemic behind us, effectively moving into the territory. endemic where we would be. able to handle COVID like we do with the flu. To see what numbers mean the country can reopen, read on and to see what you’ll be able to do once you get your vaccine check out Dr Fauci says it’s safe for you to do this once you are vaccinated. The pandemic will be “over” when the numbers match typical flu numbers. Reaching zero cases of COVID is nearly impossible, reports The Atlantic in a detailed new article. But the next best thing is that COVID is becoming an endemic disease, a disease that still persists in the community at low levels but does not often inflict serious illness. Once COVID reaches this point, it will be much more manageable. Paul Offit, MD, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told The Atlantic he believes “the doors will open” when the country sees fewer than 5,000 new cases a day and fewer of 100 deaths per day. Several experts agree with Offit’s metrics. “Less than 100 deaths per day – to reflect typical flu mortality in the United States over a typical year – is an appropriate goal,” said Monica Gandhi, MD, infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco, at The Atlantic. While these numbers are far from zero, this level of risk is “widely considered acceptable,” Joseph Eisenberg, PhD, epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, told The Atlantic. And for more up-to-date COVID information delivered straight to your inbox, sign up for our daily newsletter. We are months away from those numbers. If we measure ourselves against the metrics of influenza, we have a long way to go before we can call the pandemic a thing of the past. According to the CDC, the country’s most recent seven-day average was 1,975 deaths per day, as of February 22. This is a 36% drop from 3,108 deaths two weeks earlier on February 8. If things continue at this rate, that means it would take another 14 weeks, or three and a half months, to get to less than 100 deaths per day. At this rate, we would reach endemic status in early June, but of course there are many factors that could come into play and affect this estimate. And for more on our return to normal, check out CDC to ease these COVID restrictions, says Dr Fauci. Some experts believe these numbers should be even lower. While less than 5,000 new cases per day is the average flu count, some experts believe cases need to drop even more before we are comfortable returning to normal. Crystal Watson, DrPH, a health security specialist at Johns Hopkins University, told The Atlantic that a threshold of 0.5 newly diagnosed cases per 100,000 people per day and a test positivity rate of less than 1% nationally would be better indicators. Watson noted that to consider ourselves overwhelmed by the pandemic, we would also have to register at least a month of activity as usual in hospitals where there is no shortage of staff or equipment. The United States reported 135.25 new cases per 100,000 people on Feb.22, according to the CDC, a 42% drop from the 233.52 new cases per 100,000 reported two weeks earlier on Feb.8. it would take 20 weeks – or five months – before COVID reaches endemic status, which would put us in mid-July. And for more on life after vaccination, check out Dr Fauci Still Won’t Go To These 3 Places Now That He’s Vaccinated. The comparison isn’t perfect, but it’s the closest thing to predicting the end of COVID. Comparing COVID numbers to influenza numbers is not a perfect system since COVID-related deaths are reported to public health authorities, while influenza deaths are estimates based on national surveillance data from statistical models, explained The Atlantic. Additionally, many more COVID tests are done than flu tests, which means positive cases are difficult to compare. However, many experts consider the COVID influenza measurement to be the best metric we have at this time as a predictor of the end of the pandemic. To see when experts think the virus will start to dissipate, check out COVID will be “almost gone” by that date, says Dr. Johns Hopkins.
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