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Michigan’s fourth major wave of coronavirus infections has cases, deaths, hospitalizations and positive test rates continuing to rise in October as large parts of the country begin to see some relief.
Over the past three weeks, the national seven-day average for new daily COVID-19 cases has fallen nearly 41%, according to data compiled by the New York Times. Daily case rates are flat or declining in 40 states, and those drops come with easing hospital pressures.
Meanwhile, Michigan is one of 10 states that have seen an increase in the rate of daily cases in recent weeks. Its daily cases have increased 23% in the past two weeks – ranked fourth in the country – and 45.9% in the past three weeks.
In terms of new cases per 100,000 population, Michigan ranks 18th. It wasn’t that long ago that he was at the bottom of the list.
The southern region of the country led COVID-19 cases for most of the summer, but the Midwest recently passed it this month, behind only Alaska, which is experiencing its biggest pandemic peak these last weeks.
Michigan’s 83 counties are considered to be at high risk for transmission of COVID based on case rates and positive tests. The same can be said for 92.6% of counties nationwide, with leading transmission in other counties being rated as substantial (3.88%), moderate (2.42%), or low (0.96%).
However, health officials at the CDC and the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health have both established models that predict a slowdown in the current rate of increase, or even a plateau in new cases by mid-October. at the end of October. The projections examine historical COVID data, as well as mobility trends and vaccination rates.
In early October, Michigan followed Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin in daily cases per million population, and ahead of Pennsylvania and Illinois. The University of Michigan ridge regression models predict this same ranking for Michigan, with Indiana climbing the highest, followed by Ohio and Wisconsin.
Locally, these models predict that the Upper Peninsula will see the largest increase in the number of daily new cases per million population by Halloween, followed by far by the regions of Grand Rapids, Saginaw and Traverse City. The models predict that the Detroit area will experience the slowest increase and the fewest daily cases per capita during this period, followed by the Kalamazoo, Lansing and Jackson areas.
Related: Fourth wave of COVID threat in Michigan hospitals ‘very real’ without more vaccinations
UM has also developed models to predict COVID-19-related death rates. Models indicate a continued increase in daily deaths in Michigan as the state heads into November, which is not unexpected, given that death rates are typically 2-3 weeks behind the increases. the case rate.
Nationally, new deaths from COVID peaked for the latest wave at around 2,087 per day on September 20. It has since fallen to 1,829 per day as of Monday, October 4, according to data compiled by the New York Times.
Michigan ranks 32nd in daily reported COVID deaths per 100,000 people over the past week with 0.37. This is still below the national average of 0.54 daily deaths per 100,000 people.
The state’s latest average for reported deaths per day (34) is the highest since May 28 and shows a 62% increase in the past two weeks.
Nationally, hospitalizations have been declining since early September. After surpassing 100,000 COVID patients at one point this summer, the United States entered October with fewer than 75,000 hospital beds.
Meanwhile, those rates continue to climb in Michigan. The state ranks 37th in daily hospitalizations for COVID per 100,000 people, and it has seen the third largest percentage increase in the past 14 days, behind North Dakota and Pennsylvania.
Michigan hospitals were treating 1,815 patients with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 on Monday. That’s against 1,415 of these patients a month ago.
Hospitals continue to advocate and encourage residents to get vaccinated in order to reduce pressures on health systems and limit the number of severe cases of coronavirus infection. Many hospitals across the state are heading for a total number of patients – including non-COVID patients – who look like what they saw in the spring 2021 outbreak.
When it comes to vaccinations, Michigan ranks 26th among states based on its fully vaccinated population (53%), which is lower than the national average (56%). Vermont leads the way with 70%, while West Virginia comes in last with 41%.
To find a vaccine near you, visit the Michigan COVID-19 vaccine website or go to VaccineFinder.org.
Learn more about MLive:
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Michigan COVID Outbreaks Rise 13% More Last Week, Oct 4 Report Says
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