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In the new forecast of the agency the budget balance for this year is increased from 90 to 96 billion. However, from next year, the forecast will be reduced to 62 billion and a loss of 12 billion is expected for 2020.
One of the reasons is that the economy should run out of steam. The growth forecast has been reduced from 2.8% to 2.4% in 2018, but slightly slightly from 1.8% to 1.9% next year.
But the development is explained mainly because investments in the tax account are expected to decrease for the first time in five years. National Office of Debt it expects a reduction of 50 billion SEK in 2020.
If it is withdrawn, the adjustments in the forecasts are less important. The government's fiscal savings, namely the fiscal balance excluding capital investment in the tax bill, is expected to generate a surplus of 39 billion, even in 2020.
The debt office wants previously limited the ability to invest capital in the tax account, which in a low interest rate environment often gave individuals and firms a return that was higher than banks' savings rates. In September, Deputy Governor Hans Lindblad warned that large capital investments involved a more expensive loan to the state, limiting the supply of government bonds and misleading the budget balance.
"Underlying public finances remain strong and are supported, for example, by an increase in consumption taxes," he said in a press release on Thursday.
Because of New forecasts are also expected to increase from $ 30 billion to $ 201 billion, up from $ 40 billion by 2020. This is the first five-year increase.
The Bureau of Debt forecasts are based on the budget proposal for 2018, no new budget having been possible due to the locked position at the Riksdag. In addition, the Authority expects that further reforms with a negative impact on the budget balance of SEK 10 billion next year and EUR 15 billion by 2020 will be affected.
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