Talking about the tropics with Mike: Bang

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Jacksonville, Florida. – The “Buresh result”: Always be prepared!…..Early Warning Hurricane Survival Guide… Jacksonville City Preparation Guide… Guide to hurricanes in Georgia.

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE APPROACHES: Tape on windows is * NOT * helpful and will not prevent glass from shattering … and realize that the cone is the average forecast error over a period of time – up to 5 days – and * don’t * indicate the width of the storm and / or the damage so don’t focus on the center of a tropical system.

The peak of the hurricane season is September 10 with a mini peak in mid-October:

Summary “Ida” in the “Buresh Blog” * here * …. past tropical systems similar to Ida * here *.

Areas to watch:

(1) Larry’s last notice issued on Saturday.

(2) the western gulf

(3) tropical waves headed west off the coast of Africa

(4) tropical development possible over southwest or west Atlantic later this week.

(1) Larry: over the northwest Atlantic touching Newfoundland at about 11:45 pm EDT Fri Larry quickly became post-tropical Sat. morning over the Labrador Sea, then was absorbed by / merged with a large extra-tropical depression bringing heavy snow to Greenland until Monday!

Summary:

“Larry” was upgraded last Wednesday. become a hurricane early on Thursday. & became a cat. Fri. 3 evening – the 3rd “major” hurricane of the season. 1969, 2004 and 2005 were the only other seasons since the mid-1960s to have up to three Cat. More than 3 hurricanes by September 3. By Wed Afternoon – 1 week after its creation, Larry was just a cat. 2 hurricanes and lashing Bermuda with tropical force winds Larry is the longest-lasting Atlantic hurricane since “Dorina” in 2019.

Despite the hurricane’s considerable distance from any continent, Larry was large enough to push an easterly swell toward the east coast of the United States, increasing the risk of a reverse current to Sat. The eye of the hurricane reached the latitude of Jacksonville – about 30 degrees N – on Wednesday evening but more than 1,200 miles to the east.

Larry was the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic season … the 4th since August 18! … and the first time three Atlantic Basin hurricanes have form in the period from August 18 to September 2.

Dr Phil Klotzbach reports that only twelve or more tropical storms have occurred in the Atlantic Basin as of September 1 (5 times: 1995, 2005, 2011, 2012 and 2020 (satellite photos in the 1960s).

For now, the Bermuda High across the Atlantic is moving east and northeast until at least mid-September – which is important for any potential tropical system. long term emerging from the deep tropics. * But * there are indications that the Bermuda High will move west and a little south while getting stronger again as we head into the last 10-12 days of September. This development will be the key to a potential long track hurricane later this month.

(2) A tropical wave close up and over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula moved to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and quickly organized Sun. morning and was upgraded to “Nicholas”. We (the people along the coast of northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas + southwestern Louisiana) need to be especially careful in the face of this storm. If Nicholas stays offshore long enough and far enough, we could suddenly be faced with a formidable hurricane. The shear is strong at the moment – at over 35 km / h outside the west / southwest – but is expected to weaken over the next few days. Forecast models indicate a possible landing as early as Monday / Tuesday. near Brownsville, Texas, but some forecast cycles point to a late landing further north and / or a storm along the Texas coast. Ultimately … how strong this might – or not – will largely depend on how long the disturbance can remain reasonably off shore. This is one to watch in Mexico and South Texas! And regardless of Nicholas’ strength or not, a lot of rain will fall this week over parts of Texas and Louisiana with the potential for serious flooding.

(3) Multiple tropical waves tread west off the African coast, as one would expect near the peak of the season. We will probably have at least one new low then tropical storm over the eastern Atlantic in the next few days. This initial wave should struggle to make much headway west across the Atlantic, but another tropical wave to follow is much more likely to cross the Atlantic. This latest wave could be a hurricane approaching the Caribbean in the middle to late next week – around September 22-25.

(4) And forecast models continue to point to possible * tropical * “activity” over or near the western or southwestern Atlantic at the end of the coming week. Still very early on on this potential but, of course, something to watch out for. Prediction models have generally been trending north on this disturbance east of Carolina (vs. east of Florida last week), but there will likely be further “corrections” to it. to come up. If the system has sufficient time offshore and over the water, a hurricane is not out of the question for the Carolina.

The peak of the hurricane season (September 10) is here and the ocean temperatures. staying “in shape” to help maintain tropical cyclones.

Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic are now near above average. in much of the basin (2nd image below) and – even more importantly – the deep ocean heat content (which helped “feed” Ida) is impressive and the “equivalent ocean heat content”- namely the average temperature at depth in the upper 300 m (~ 984 feet) – is even more impressive from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico. Such a temperature of the ocean water. The model is conducive to long-trajectory deep tropical Atlantic tropical cyclones and may lead to a more favorable regime for cycles of rapid intensification. From an AMS research paper in ’08 Mainelli, De Maria, Shay, Goni: “The results show that for a large sample of Atlantic storms, variations in OHC have a small but positive impact on intensity forecasts. However, for intense storms, the effect of OHC is much more significant, suggesting its importance on the rapid intensification. The OHC input improved the mean intensity errors of the SHIPS forecast by up to 5% for all Category 5 storm cases, and up to 20% for individual storms, with the maximum improvement for the 72 forecast. -96 hours. The statistical results obtained indicate that the OHC only becomes important when it has values much higher than that required to withstand a tropical cyclone.. “More recent research continues to indicate similar correlations.

September is historically the favorite month for tropical cyclones across the Atlantic Basin:

Saharan dust. Dry air – yellow / orange / red / pink. Widespread dust indicates dry air which can hamper the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna ‘be” waves will just wait to reach the other side of the plume and then try to develop if all else is right. In my opinion, we talk too much about the presence of Saharan dust and its link with tropical cyclones.

Names 2021 ….. “Odette” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are drawn by lot by the World Meteorological Organization … repeat every 6 years … historic storms are removed (Florence & Michael in ’18 … Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ’20). Last year – 2020 – saw a record 30 named storms. WMO decided from 2021 that the Greek alphabet would not be no longer used and that there would instead be an additional list of names if the first list is exhausted (only happened twice – 2005 and 2020). Learn more about the history of the naming of cyclones tropical * here *.

East Atlantic:

Medium and high altitude windshear analysis (tropical cyclone enemy) (CIMMS). Red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imaging (dark blue indicates dry air):

The heat content of the deep oceans continues to increase in the Gulf, the Caribbean and the tropical deep Atlantic and has become quite impressive from the central / northwestern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico: