Texas COVID cases are increasing at an “amazing rate.” Here’s what you need to know.

Hospitalizations from the coronavirus in North Texas increased 292% over the past month, according to data from UT-Southwestern Medical Center. Chief state epidemiologist Jennifer Shuford said she and others in the Texas State Department’s health services were concerned.

“We’ve been living with this pandemic for a year and a half now,” Shuford said. “We thought we had seen the worst with these first two pandemic waves that we experienced. This third wave that we have right now in Texas shows a very strong increase in the number of cases and hospitalizations, as large or even greater than what we observed with these first two waves. “

So what does the coronavirus look like in Texas right now?

Shuford said that “the number of cases is increasing at an astonishing rate”. UT-Southwestern estimates there will be more than 1,500 new COVID-19 infections per day by mid-August.

“We’re around 90% more cases this week than we even were last week, and almost 10 times more than just a month ago,” Shuford said.

Hospitalizations are also on the rise. Statewide, more than 7,600 people are currently hospitalized with coronavirus, and in North Texas, it’s more than 400. By comparison, last year’s summer wave in July saw nearly 700 people hospitalized in North Texas, and the most recent winter wave was close to 1,200 people.

The problem with more and more people being hospitalized, Shuford said, are the potential problems with medical personnel and equipment.

“The problem with this is that hospitals usually prepare when they think flu and pneumonia season is approaching,” Shuford said. “They make sure their staff are ready and their intensive care units are ready. And with this surge in cases and hospitalizations that we’re seeing, people just weren’t prepared. “

Why are there so many new cases and hospitalizations?

One big reason is that the newer variants of the coronavirus, like the delta, are easier to transmit. Another factor is the number of unvaccinated people. In Dallas this week, Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Phillip Huang said about 90% of people hospitalized had not been vaccinated.

“This is the main thing that we must not lose sight of, it is this high percentage of people who are still not vaccinated that is important,” Huang said. “Virtually all hospitalizations and deaths continue to be among the unvaccinated.”

In Dallas County, 52% of people 12 and older are fully vaccinated, which equates to 53% statewide.

“We know this pandemic spreads more easily through people who are not fully vaccinated,” Shuford said. “But there are pockets of unvaccinated people all over the state, so we are seeing the spread of this disease statewide.”

Why is the Delta variant suddenly everywhere? What is that ?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported the first case of the delta variant in the United States in March. Since then, it has become the dominant coronavirus strain in Texas and the United States as a whole.

“Viruses mutate,” Shuford said. “This is exactly what they are doing. If they have a mutation that somehow makes them a little more aggressive or more easily transmitted, then those things can help that mutant strain or variant become the one that is increasing in proportion.

As variants of the coronavirus mutate, Shuford said she and other health officials have seen how the virus spreads from person to person, also known as transmissibility, continues to grow. to augment. One of the first variants of the coronavirus called alpha was discovered in the UK last winter. It was 50% more transmissible than the original strain of coronavirus (called SARS-CoV-2). Shuford says the delta variant is 50% more transmissible than the alpha.

“Infected people [with the delta variant], on average, they just have more virus in their airways than people when they were infected with previous strains of this virus, “Shuford said.” When there are more viruses in the airways, you can expel more of this virus with each breath or sneeze or a cough or nose flush.

So, will there be more variants of the coronavirus and how does the vaccine work with them?

Most likely, Shuford said, because this is how viruses stay alive.

“We expect delta will not be the last chapter of this book,” said Shuford. “We will continue to see ongoing mutations in this virus. We’re just going to have to work to keep pace and keep changing everything we need – counseling, vaccines, treatments. “

Shuford said COVID-19 vaccines greatly decrease the likelihood of severe symptoms and hospitalizations, even with more transmissible variants like delta. While it’s important to note that the CDC said “no vaccine is 100% effective in preventing disease in people who are vaccinated.”

In terms of new recommendations, in May, the department said fully vaccinated people did not need to wear masks indoors. In July, the CDC then recommended that people in counties with “substantial or high” transmission wear a mask indoors, which means 50 or more cases per 100,000 people in a week. Over 230 of Texas’ 254 counties are in the “substantial or high” transmission threshold.

What does all of this mean for Texas students returning to school in person?

Although children 12 and older are approved to receive the Pfizer vaccine and trials are underway for children under 12, many children still remain unvaccinated.

“This is something that concerns us as well,” said Shuford. “Anytime we bring people together in a setting where many of them are not vaccinated, there is a risk of an epidemic. It’s not just in schools, it’s in any type of public place.

New CDC guidelines for children returning to school in person recommend that anyone who is not fully immunized wear a mask indoors, with students staying 3 feet from each other in classroom and schools practice other safety measures such as frequent cleaning and hand washing.

Some school districts in other states have reintroduced mask mandates for schools to prevent community spread. A recent executive order from Governor Greg Abbott prevents school districts, county governments and other state agencies in Texas from implementing mask warrants.

For Shuford, she continues to recommend that people who are not fully immunized wear a mask and physically move away from people who are not in their household. She also stressed the importance of having everyone who is able to be vaccinated.

“For children who are between 0 and 11 years old and who cannot get vaccinated, it will be important for those around them to make sure they are fully immunized, so they can help protect these populations. vulnerable, ”Shuford said. “This is true not only for children, but also for people who are immunocompromised.

What shall we do now?

Shuford said this third pandemic wave is a little different from the first two, mainly due to vaccine availability, but the same prevention steps still apply.

“Stay away from people outside your household, wear masks when you are around people outside your household, make sure you wash your hands or clean them regularly and improve air circulation or ventilation in your living or working spaces – all of these things are working now, even with the newer variations, ”said Shuford.

The Texas Department of State Health Services is also monitoring cold and flu season, which begins in the fall.

“Last year, so many people were wearing masks and they were socially distancing themselves, that we didn’t really have a flu season,” Shuford said. “Now we’re in a different place where people are mingling a bit more. We are concerned not only about COVID-19, but also the flu and many other respiratory viruses that circulate during the fall and winter months. “

Texas Health and Human Services has information on vaccine eligibility and where to find an immunization appointment across the state.

Do you have any advice? Email Elena Rivera at [email protected]. You can follow Elena on Twitter @elenaiswriting.

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