The global boom in natural gas demand is about to slow, according to the IEA

The world's appetite for natural gas has grown at an accelerated pace since 2010 last year, but this phenomenal growth is slowing down, according to the International Energy Agency.

Global demand for natural gas rose 4.6% in 2018, driven by strong economic growth, the abandonment of coal-fired power and weather-related demand. Gas accounts for nearly half of global energy demand growth, with the bulk of the highest consumption coming from China and the United States, said the IEA.

"In 2018, natural gas played a major role in a remarkable energy year.World energy consumption grew at its fastest pace this decade, with natural gas accounting for 45% of the increase" , said IEA executive director, Fatih Birol, in the agency's annual report. natural gas ratio.

However, the Paris-based energy-importing country advisor said that an extraordinary growth rate was not sustainable. According to IEA projections, gas demand is expected to grow by an average of 1.6% per year over the next five years, which would be a return to levels seen before 2017, when growth was suddenly gained momentum.

The IEA estimates that the slowdown is linked to expectations of weaker economic growth, a return to average weather conditions and a decrease in opportunities to switch from coal to gas in power plants.

The adoption of natural gas is the single largest contributor to the steady decline in coal-based electricity in the US energy mix. China, the world 's second largest economy, is following the same path as Beijing to quickly improve the air quality of its country.

IEA predicts that China will account for 40% of global gas demand growth over the next five years. However, the slowdown will be pronounced in the middle empire. After rising by 14.5% in 2017 and 18.1% in 2018, China's gas consumption is expected to increase by only 8% per year by 2024, due in particular to the slowdown in growth. economic.

Other areas of the world that will support future growth are the United States, the Middle East and North Africa – all of which produce abundant and cheap supplies that can be consumed at home by industry and power plants. .

Most of the new supply needed to meet growing demand will come from the United States, where the country's growing shale fields have left drillers looking for new markets. US gas production rose 11.5% in 2018, marking the fastest growth since 1951, according to the IEA.

These supplies will increasingly reach foreign markets in the form of liquefied natural gas, a form of liquid cooled fuel, mainly for maritime transport. The IEA said the United States could become the world's largest LNG exporter to Qatar and Australia by 2024.

The IEA predicts that new LNG capacity from the US, Australia and Russia will account for 90% of export growth. The agency notes that Qatar has announced plans to increase LNG capacity, but has not confirmed the investment.

While investments in multi-billion-dollar LNG facilities are increasing after years of decline, the IEA says developers are still at risk of falling behind.

"More investment in liquefaction will be needed, as unused capacity margins would shrink after 2020 and could lead to a tighter market," said EI.