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A source close to the Russian aerospace industry recently informed the official RIA Novosti newspaper that NASA had provided the Russian space agency Roscosmos with an updated timetable for the operations of the International Space Station (ISS), including a target preliminary for the first launch of the SpaceX Crew Dragon with astronauts on board.
According to the RIA source, NASA informed Roscosmos that the agency was tentatively preparing the launch of SpaceX's Demonstration Mission 2 (DM-2) as early as July 25, with the release of the spacecraft's spacecraft. the ISS, the return to the atmosphere and the safe return of astronauts, Bob Behnken. and Doug Hurley on Earth on August 5th. Oddly, the Russian news agency TASS published a separate article barely 12 hours later, in which, once again, an anonymous source from a space agency said [DM-2] the launch of Crew Dragon should be postponed to November ". For the moment, the reality is probably in the middle.
While it is difficult not to draw conclusions about the oddity of two quite contradictory reports from similar sources in similar articles just half a day away, it is equally likely that the near simultaneous publication of TASS and RIA stories are primarily coincidental. At the same time, the truth can be found in the two comments made by the anonymous source (s), while offering a kind of ideal scenario and in the worst case for the first crew launch of SpaceX's Crew Dragon spacecraft.
RIA began the series on March 22 with a brief news presentation containing a background quote from the aforementioned source of the space industry.
"The US side informed the Russian side that the launch of the [first crewed launch of] Dragon-2 … at the ISS … is scheduled for July 25th. Berthing at the station is planned [to occur around one day later]. The separation of the ISS and the return to Earth are expected for August 5, "said the source of the agency.
In a slightly different way, NASA informed Roscosmos that it had started planning
Although NASA and SpaceX now have the luxury of having a vast cache of flight data and practical experience from Crew Dragon's first almost flawless orbital launch mission and its rendezvous with ISS, the Crew Dragon DM-2 mission remains a completely different animal. In addition to requiring a number of important hardware modifications and introducing the visceral pressure of real life, the DM-2 will be a major first for NASA after spending nearly eight years unable to launch its own astronauts orbit.
A "race" no more
Meanwhile, Boeing's Spaceliner Starliner – Crew Dragon's companion as part of NASA's commercial team program – suffered many setbacks in 2019, apparently driving the vehicle to not screwed launch early April to August NET, with a delay of at least four months. As a result, nothing less than serious anomalies in the preparation of Crew Dragon equipment and / or NASA DMA-1 exams and DM-2 flight readiness could prevent SpaceX to become the first commercial entity to build, launch and operate a crewed spacecraft. in the history of spaceflight.
According to a December 2018 update provided at quarterly NASA Advisory Board meetings, the entire manufacturing and integration of Crew Dragon DM-2 may have already been completed, the capsule potentially going to SpaceX payload processing facilities in Florida later this week. The NAC's December 2018 dates, however, do not take into account the delays in launching the DM-1 that followed, plausibly impacting the completion of DM-2 integration and skate delivery to ensure that all Potential anomalies encountered during the test flight of Crew Dragon are resolved at Hawthorne, CALIFORNIA.
According to NASA and SpaceX, DM-2's Crew Dragon will have to be equipped with thermal control equipment to prevent the plumbing of the Draco thruster from freezing in some specific conditions in orbit, as well as possible modifications to the parachute system. gear and the installation of four windows instead of two. SpaceX will also need to install the first display and control equipment ready for Crew Dragon's orbit. Finally, SpaceX has chosen to conduct a Crew Dragon Flight Crew Test (CIF) to verify that the satellite can safely transport astronauts from launch to orbital insertion. This test will need to be completed and successfully reviewed by NASA before the agency allows SpaceX to proceed to DM-2.
All the above tasks – including the major exams of Crew Dragon's performance in his DM-1 debut at the agency level – must be completed before SpaceX is allowed to send astronauts on the ISS, which all add a level of uncertainty inherent in DM-2 practical launch schedule. If all revisions and modifications are flawless, including a perfect flight drop test, by the end of June, SpaceX and NASA may be ready to launch Crew Dragon again by the end of June of the month of July.
In reality, it is extremely unlikely that everything will run smoothly, as evidenced by the tedious process NASA and SpaceX require to reach flight capability before DM-1. If a lot of problems arise over the next few months of review and work, it is not excluded that the launch of DM-2 will go to Q4 2019 or Q1 2020. If divide the difference, it would be wiser to bet that Crew Dragon will take off with the astronauts on board at the earliest in August or September. Be that as it may, many exciting milestones will soon be made for SpaceX's first spaceflight program. Stay tuned as SpaceX prepares to ship the second
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