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As we begin the slow transition from summer to fall, COVID cases continue to rise across the country. But as the numbers in some states rise, cases in other states are starting to peak or even decline. Still, the United States as a whole is reporting almost as many COVID-related hospitalizations as it was during last winter’s peak, before a highly effective vaccine was made available to everyone 12 years and older. As the Delta variant continues to circulate, experts predict that the states with the most cases will improve, while those that have yet to see an increase could be the next to see their numbers increase.
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The New York Times reported that on August 29, the United States reached a daily average of more than 100,000 COVID-related hospitalizations, 40,000 below the country’s peak last winter. Hospitalizations in the United States have increased by nearly 500% in the past two months, mostly in southern states where vaccination rates are low. However, states with strong vaccination rates are not completely exempted, and the Delta variant may soon take hold in new territories.
Neil sehgal, PhD, assistant professor of health policy and management at the University of Maryland School of Public Health, told The Hill that the rise and fall of COVID cases “will occur at different times and at different locations ”over the next few months.
“It’s a relief whenever we see cases dwindling somewhere that’s really been ravaged by COVID. At the same time, the positive news in one part of the county doesn’t necessarily translate nationwide,” he said. he explained. After observing the trajectory of the Delta variant in other countries, experts have predicted that areas that experience flare-ups may soon experience rapid decline, while others are likely to experience peaks in the near future.
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On August 22, the epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, PhD, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told CNN that if “the Delta variant follows this pattern that it has taken in other countries, we can expect to see, especially the Southern Sun Belt states which are so hard hit right now… a very rapid drop in cases probably in two to three weeks. “
Meanwhile, Osterholm has predicted a darker fate for states that are just starting to see an increase in cases. “The real challenge is what is going to happen with all the other states where we see increases,” he said. “If they light up too much, then this surge could actually continue until mid-September or later.” Osterholm’s prediction may be correct, as some northern states with solid vaccination rates are starting to see worrying signs of an increase.
Read on to see which states experienced COVID outbreaks of 30% or more in the past week to August 31, according to data from The Washington Post.
RELATED: Fully Immunized People Make Up 1 in 4 COVID Cases Here, New CDC Report Says.
- New cases in the last seven days: 69 cases per 100,000 people
- Percentage increase in the last seven days: 32 percent
The Associated Press reported that over the past week, West Virginia recorded its highest number of weekly COVID cases since the peak of cases in January. With cases rising 163% in the past two weeks, some state officials have started to get tough on COVID mitigation measures. “You need to get vaccinated”, Governor of West Virginia Jim justice said in a briefing Aug. 27. “The more people who are vaccinated, the less will die. That’s absolutely the way it is.”
The recent reopening of schools could compound the push. The state is currently experiencing more than 25 outbreaks in schools in more than 13 counties, according to the West Virginia Department of Education. While Justice opposes a statewide mask mandate in schools, he is campaigning for the immunization of children. The governor said he was ready to “act very quickly” to push vaccinations for children under 12, “if and when” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lights it green. In the meantime, Justice said he was “totally committed to getting a back-to-school vaccination for ages 12 and up.”
- New cases in the last seven days: 71 cases per 100,000 people
- Percentage increase in the last seven days: 33 percent
The increase in COVID cases in Oklahoma has completely overwhelmed local hospitals. “In the 123-year history of our hospital, we have not seen a single diagnosis impact the resources available to others in such a significant way”, Tammy powell, president of St. Anthony’s Hospital in Oklahoma City, said The Washington Post.
And the future prospects are not particularly promising, warn some experts. Georges monks, MD, a board member of the Oklahoma State Medical Association, shared a model with local news station KFOR which found that up to 80% of elementary-age children who did not receive of COVID or the vaccine will contract the virus within 60 days if schools do not take precautions, such as masking and testing.
- New cases in the last seven days: 63 cases per 100,000 people
- Percentage increase in the last seven days: 33 percent
As COVID cases continue to rise in Indiana, Governor Eric Holcomb just renewed the state’s emergency public health order for the 18th time. This last renewal will run until the end of September. On August 30, the AP reported that schools in Indiana had more new cases of COVID the week before than ever before, with more than 5,500 new cases reported among students.
On August 27, the state health commissioner Kristina box, MD and Chief Medical Officer Lindsay weaver, MD, delivered its first COVID briefing since late July. “I want the Hoosiers to understand that the decisions they make affect others,” Box said at the briefing. “It’s incredibly disappointing that we have effective tools like the COVID-19 vaccine and that nearly half of our eligible population still refuses to get it.”
- New cases in the last seven days: 68 cases per 100,000 people
- Percentage increase in the last seven days: 34 percent
Alaska had 151 people in hospital with COVID over the past weekend. The state has not seen as many residents requiring hospitalization for COVID since December 2020. As the Daily Anchorage Newis reported, Jared kosin, president of the Alaska State Hospital and Nursing Home Association, said the state has “reached new heights, and it looks like we’re not done yet … Make no mistake: this is a crisis.” . Kosin warned that “if things continue to accelerate, then this is the scenario that we don’t talk about, that we haven’t talked about – that other states, unfortunately, have gone through.”
- New cases in the last seven days: 39 cases per 100,000 people
- Percentage increase in the last seven days: 37 percent
Experts don’t see the growing number of cases in North Dakota slowing down anytime soon. Former senior public health official Stephen mcdonough, MD, told the Grand Forks Herald that the state is “headed for absolute disaster this fall.” McDonough noted that more children and young people will likely account for a large percentage of cases. Avish nagpal, MD, chief infectious disease specialist at Sanford Health in Fargo, told the newspaper he was worried about the current workload. “I think we are in worse shape this year despite having a pretty good vaccine,” he said.
- New cases in the last seven days: 38 cases per 100,000 people
- Percentage increase in the last seven days: 41 percent
The spike in cases in Ohio led to significant changes in the state’s hospital system. Local NBC affiliate WCMH reported that as of August 30, elective procedures requiring an overnight stay at Grant Medical Center were suspended and as of August 31, patients are only allowed one visitor. . The Ohio Hospital Association told WCMH that COVID-related hospitalizations have increased by more than 1,200% in the past 60 days.
John palmer with the Ohio Hospital Association believes the surge could have been avoided “if we were all doing our part in the community.” He told WCMH that vaccinations are a key part of preventing more cases. However, “if you don’t have your vaccination, mask wearing, social distancing, [and] washing your hands “could also help, he added.
- New cases in the last seven days: 18 cases per 100,000 people
- Percentage increase in the last seven days: 51 percent
Maine has one of the highest vaccination rates in the United States, but it failed to avoid the Delta Wave. The Bangor Daily News reported that on July 23, there were only 25 hospital patients in Maine with COVID. Five weeks later, that number has more than quintupled. Robert horsburgh, MD, professor of epidemiology at Boston University, told the Bangor Daily News that the lifting of restrictions and the spread of the more transmissible Delta variant likely contributed to the increase in cases in Maine.
Yet hospitals in Maine are not overwhelmed in the same way that many other hospitals in hard-hit states are. “It’s full while you keep doing elective surgery and basically stay open for business as usual, then it’s full when you’ve canceled elective surgeries, and you still don’t know where the next one is. patient will go, “noted Horsburgh.
- New cases in the last seven days: 42 cases per 100,000 people
- Percentage increase in the last seven days: 53 percent
After hundreds of thousands of bikers attended the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota earlier this month, the state saw a noticeable increase in the number of cases. Prior to the rally, on August 4, the reported state 657 active COVID cases. On August 25, 10 days after the event ended, the state reported 3,655 active cases. This represents a 456% increase in COVID cases. Neither vaccines nor masks were required to attend the rally.
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