UK health experts have advice for US on fighting mutant variant

LONDON – Health experts warn that even with restrictions, the United States is likely to struggle to curb the spread of a highly infectious coronavirus variant, stressing the importance of taking aggressive action immediately to protect as many people as possible possible.

The variant, discovered in the UK and known as B.1.1.7., Has an unusually high number of mutations and is associated with more efficient and rapid transmission.

There is no evidence that the mutant strain is associated with more severe disease outcomes. However, because it is more transmissible, other people are more likely to become infected, which could lead to a higher number of severe cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Scientists first detected this mutation in September. The variant of concern has since been detected in at least 44 countries, including the United States, which has reported its presence in 12 states.

Last week, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that the modeled trajectory of the variant in the United States “shows rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March.”

The forecast comes as the UK struggles to control the impact of its exponential growth.

On January 5, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced lockdowns in England, ordering people to “stay at home” with most schools, bars and restaurants ordered to close. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have introduced similar measures.

The restrictions, which are expected to remain in place in England at least until mid-February, were introduced in an attempt to reduce the pressure on already stressed hospitals across the country amid a surge in Covid admissions.

Government figures released on Thursday show Britain has recorded 37,892 new infections and 1,290 deaths. A day earlier, the UK had an all-time high for Covid deaths, when data showed an additional 1,820 people had died within 28 days of a positive Covid test.

Dr Deepti Gurdasani, clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University in London, stressed that it was clear from the UK response that unless aggressive action is taken immediately, “the variant will spread rapidly geographically, as well as established in the community. “

Gurdasani cited the results of a closely watched study by researchers at Imperial College London that showed “no evidence of a drop” in Covid rates between January 6 and January 15 as England was on lockdown, “suggesting that even with restrictions, it’s difficult to contain this effectively thanks to higher transmissibility.”

Researchers in the study, published Thursday, warned that UK health services will remain under “extreme pressure” and the cumulative number of deaths will rise rapidly unless the prevalence of the virus in the community is dramatically reduced.

“All of this means that the containment window is very short. Given the weaker active surveillance in the United States, the variant may have spread more widely than expected, and containment policy must take this into account,” he said. Gurdasani said.

“This means strict containment efforts not only where the variant has been identified, but in all areas where it could have spread. And active surveillance with contact tracing to identify all possible cases, while maintaining restrictions. strict to break the chains of transmission. “

To date, the UK has recorded the fifth highest number of confirmed Covid infections and associated deaths in the world.

On his second day in office, President Joe Biden announced sweeping measures to tackle the virus, including the creation of a Covid testing committee to boost testing, address supply shortages and allocate funds to communities hard-hit minority.

Biden said the executive orders showed “Help is on the way.” He also warned that it would take months “to turn the situation around”.

“The key to all of this is to reduce interpersonal interactions and the strategy has to be broadly the same as what has been done before, what has worked elsewhere, and more,” said Simon Clarke, associate professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading.

Clarke said U.S. states should consider reducing the number of people in retail or leisure environments, for example, and that bars may need to be closed or their hours of operation restricted given studies showing that the risk of transmission is higher indoors.

“None of those things we do to protect ourselves eliminate the risk, none of them make us Covid-proof – all that does is reduce your chances of getting infected,” said Clarke.

“The virus has just pushed that back with this evolutionary step and it will now be even more difficult to achieve the same level of protection.”

“Everyone wants to believe that vaccines are the solution, and they’re going to make a huge difference, but it’s not the complete solution,” said Kit Yates, senior lecturer in mathematical biology at the University of Bath and author of “The Math of Life and Death.”

Yates said the new U.S. administration should do everything in its power to roll out Covid vaccines “as quickly as possible” to ease pressure on healthcare facilities, but insisted it should be part of it. ‘a multi-pronged approach.

Some other measures that U.S. states should consider, Yates said, include encouraging people to work from home when possible, maintaining physical distance, improving ventilation in school settings, wearing masks for children, financial support for those in self-isolation, and the use of testing and trace protocols.

“These are boring, horrible, non-pharmaceutical measures that no one wants, but the alternative is too scary to think about.”