UK warns more lethal strain makes lift lock more difficult

Photographer: Leon Neal / Getty Images

The UK’s new strain of coronavirus could be deadlier than first thought, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, again warning that the country faces a long wait before it can come out of lockdown.

Speaking at a press conference in London on Friday, the PM said new evidence had led the government to reconsider its initial view that the variant was more contagious but not more dangerous. It can be 30% more deadly than the original strain – or more, according to a government analysis.

“In addition to spreading faster, it now appears that there is evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – may be associated with a higher degree mortality, ”Johnson said from 10 Downing Street, flanked by his top medical advisers.

The government said that on average, for every 1,000 men in their 60s, 13 to 14 would die if they contracted the new variant, compared to 10 for the original strain.

The Prime Minister’s warning comes as Britain grapples with Europe’s highest death toll and struggles to recover from the economic wreckage of its deepest recession in more than 300 years.

There was a A glimmer of light for the UK in government data on Friday suggesting the second wave of the pandemic has passed its peak.

But Johnson and his scientific advisers have made it clear that rates of hospitalizations, deaths and infections remain far too high and will not lift the restrictions that have shut down the companies anytime soon.

More vigilance

Added to this was the warning about the increased potency of the new variant known as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the UK last year and has since spread throughout the whole world.

Read more: Why the new virus strains are so worrying: QuickTake

Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the new strain was not only easier to transmit, but also linked to higher death rates than earlier variants circulating in Britain.

“It’s largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under such intense pressure,” Johnson said. “It’s more important than ever that we all stay vigilant and follow the rules.” There are 38,562 Covid patients in hospitals, which is 78% more than during the first peak last April, he said.

While an initial analysis by experts from Public Health England found that the variant was not linked to more hospitalizations or deaths, independent reviews by outside experts produced consistent and worrying results, according to a government . report.

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London found that mortality was 29% to 35% higher in people infected with the variant of concern, or VOCs, compared to those carrying the strain of origin of the virus. The University of Exeter concluded the risk was 91% higher, while repeated analysis by Public Health England found a 65% higher mortality.

“There is a realistic likelihood that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with non-VOC viruses,” concludes Virus Threat Advisory Group report new and emerging respiratory systems of the UK government. “It should be Noted that the absolute risk of death from infection remains low. “

More data will accumulate in the coming weeks – as deaths delay infections – which could make the analysis more robust, the group said.

Officials from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have sought to learn more about the situation, but have yet to see the data or speak to their UK counterparts, a spokesperson for the agency said on Friday. in an email.

In other developments on Friday:

• Johnson pledged to do “Whatever it takes” to support jobs if restrictions continue through summer
• He warned he may have to impose stricter border measures to prevent mutant strains from entering the UK.
• Offered officials paying people to stay at home in an effort to encourage greater compliance with self-isolation orders
• Suggested data lockdown is working and pandemic may no longer spread exponentially in the UK
• 1,401 more deaths have been reported in the past 24 hours, bringing the UK total to 95,981

Prime Minister is under pressure from within his own Conservative Party to expose his roadmap the lifting of restrictions that have hurt the economy over the past year.

He is basing the government’s hopes on a strategy to immunize 15 million of the most vulnerable people by February 15 – and again said on Friday that the country is on track to meet that target.

There is no evidence that vaccines being rolled out in Britain are less effective against the more deadly variant of the virus, Johnson said. But infection rates remain high, with an average of one in 35 people in London having the disease, and the figure is one in 55 nationwide.

“We really can’t begin to consider unlocking until we are convinced the immunization program is working,” Johnson said. “We have to be in a position where the rates aren’t that high that an unlock causes another big bounce.”

– With assistance from David Goodman, Michelle Fay Cortez and John Tozzi

(Updates with US CDC commentary in paragraph 15)