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After weeks of decline followed by a steady plateau, coronavirus cases are on the rise again in the United States. Deaths are still on the decline, but the country recorded an average of 61,545 cases last week, 11 percent more than the average two weeks earlier.
Scientists predicted weeks ago that the number of infections would rise again at the end of March, at least in part due to the rise of coronavirus variants across the country. The variant that hit Britain, called B.1.1.7, has led to a new wave of cases across much of Europe. Some scientists have warned that this could lead to a new wave in the United States.
The rise in infections is also a result of state leaders withdrawing from mitigation measures and large social interactions, such as spring break gatherings in Florida, said Dr.Anthony S. Fauci, chief scientific adviser of the Biden administration, on the CBS program. the Nation ”Sunday.
“The variants play a role, but it’s not completely the variants,” Dr Fauci said. Most states have lifted restrictions, including on indoor dining, in response to the drop in numbers, actions Dr Fauci called “premature.”
As of Thursday, there were 8,337 known cases of variant B.1.1.7 in the country, but the actual number is likely much higher as laboratories across the country are only analyzing a very small proportion of diagnosed cases. Still, the trend is clear: the variant – which is more transmissible and perhaps more deadly – has increased exponentially in the United States, its growth masked by the overall decline in infections.
“It’s remarkable how reminiscent of the situation last year where we had virus introductions to different places that scientists thought would be a problem,” said Bill Hanage, epidemiologist at Harvard TH School of Public. Health, in an interview on Dimanche. “People waited until they posed a problem before they acted – and too late they acted.”
Dr Hanage said he was particularly concerned about B.1.1.7 because it is at least 50% more transmissible than the original virus. The sustained pace of vaccinations will stop the tide somewhat, but the growing immunity of the population may be more than offset by the contagiousness of the variant, he added. “B.1.1.7 is really scary,” he said.
The vaccines used in the United States – manufactured by Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson – are expected to prevent serious illness and death from one of the variants, although they are slightly less effective against a variant that has been identified. in the south. Africa. This variant, known as B.1.351, has not yet spread widely in the United States.
Since many of those most at risk have been vaccinated, hospitalizations and deaths may not show a large increase with infections. But an increase in the number of cases will always lead to severe cases and deaths, Dr Hanage said.
“How big will it be, we’ll have to wait and see,” he said. “But ideally we wouldn’t wait and see, ideally we would act.”
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