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Throughout the pandemic, one of the key factors that scientists and medical professionals have sought to understand is the extent and severity of Long COVID.
And while it’s difficult to quantify exactly how many people will experience symptoms in the long term, data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this week suggests that a significant majority of adults do not experience any effects. harmful more than three months after being infected. .
In April, it was estimated that one in 10 people still suffered from symptoms of COVID after 12 weeks, but the latest research from the ONS puts that number closer to one in 40.
The researchers looked at data from more than 50,000 people, half of whom had tested positive for the coronavirus.
In a blog explaining the data on the ONS website, it was suggested that the latest research should be seen as “reassuring” because the majority of people infected with the coronavirus (88% to 97%) do not have any symptoms. symptoms beyond the first 12 weeks, and some of those who do will start to feel better over time.
However, for the minority of people who continue to experience long-term symptoms, the effects can be debilitating, and figures suggest that up to 643,000 Britons could currently be affected by the long-term COVID.
Another study this week also suggested that long symptoms of COVID rarely persist beyond 12 weeks in children and adolescents, which may mean they are proportionately less of a concern than in adults.
For many, however, it is difficult to determine if they even have a long COVID, especially since there is no accepted understanding of what counts as having a “long COVID.”
Read more: Boris Johnson faces weekly backlash against ‘COVID jumper crash’
What is a long COVID?
While the ONS report refers to the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) clinical definition for long COVID – “signs and symptoms that develop during or after an infection compatible with COVID-19 that continue for more than 12 weeks and is not explained by an alternative diagnosis “- he points out that there is no absolute definition of the disease.
The ONS analysis asked two groups of people – those who had tested positive for the coronavirus and those who had not – if they had:
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fever
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headache
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muscle aches
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weakness
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tired
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nausea
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abdominal pain
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diarrhea
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sore throat
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cough
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shortness of breath
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loss of taste
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loss of sense of smell
Watch: Long Symptoms of Coronavirus Delta Variant Less Likely to Affect Children
About 3% of people who tested positive had at least one of the symptoms for at least three months after infection, but among those who had not tested positive, this proportion was 0.5%, which means that one in 40 people infected last had their coronavirus symptoms. for three months or more.
What are the symptoms?
Official NHS guidelines list symptoms of the long COVID as:
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extreme fatigue (fatigue)
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shortness of breath
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chest pain or tightness
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problems with memory and concentration (“brain fog”)
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difficulty sleeping (insomnia)
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Heart palpitations
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dizziness
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have ants
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articular pain
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depression and anxiety
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tinnitus, earache
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nausea, diarrhea, stomach pain, loss of appetite
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a high temperature, cough, headache, sore throat, changes in smell or taste
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Rashes
The World Health Organization has warned that our understanding of how to diagnose and manage long-running COVID is still evolving, but the condition can be very debilitating.
The WHO lists some of the symptoms as: generalized chest and muscle pain, fatigue, shortness of breath, chest pain, muscle pain, palpitations, persistent high temperature, and cognitive dysfunction, among others.
How many people have a long COVID?
While the ONS recognizes that it is difficult to estimate the exact number of people with COVID for a long time, it indicates that between 3% and 12% of people infected with the coronavirus show symptoms 12 weeks after infection initial ; or between 7% and 18% considering only those symptomatic in the acute phase of the infection, which means that up to 97% of people can avoid it.
Commenting on the ONS findings, Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at the Open University, said that while exact numbers could not be given, some “rough calculations” were possible using the data.
“ONS [survey] produces estimates of the incidence of new infections, ”he said.
The latest data set (for the week of August 14-20) gives a total estimate for the entire UK community population of 526,000 new infections that week.
Professor McConway said: “Although this figure has a large margin of statistical error, if 3% of these new infections result in Long COVID, that represents 16,000 new cases of Long COVID just because of the infection this week – and if the highest figure in the new ONS bulletin, 12% of infections, results in a long COVID, which would add up to over 60,000 new cases just for a week of infections across the UK. ”
However, he added: “It is reassuring, of course, that most people infected do not develop long-term COVID, but in absolute numbers, really a lot of people will develop disease in the long enough term. “
Boris Johnson on Tuesday presented the government’s plan to tackle COVID over the winter months, but also warned that a ‘plan B’ could go into effect if the NHS appeared to be under pressure.
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