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The numbers are sobering. Public health experts have sounded the alarm for months that even with the great vaccine promise on the horizon, there are dark days ahead, with the worst of the pandemic potentially yet to come.
What do these projections mean? We spoke with CNN medical analyst Dr. Leana Wen, emergency physician and visiting professor at George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, to learn how people can understand the numbers and what can be done to change the trajectory of the pandemic. .
CNN: The CDC predicts more than 90,000 deaths over three weeks. Can these numbers be correct?
Dr. Leana Wen: Unfortunately yes. We record an average of between 3,000 and 4,000 deaths every day from Covid-19. To get to that appalling 90,000 deaths in three weeks, that’s about 4,300 deaths per day. With the increase in infections and hospitalizations, it is almost certain that we will also see a constant increase in the daily death rate.
It is so tragic and I hope we will not become indifferent to these numbers. Each person is someone’s grandparent, parent, spouse, child, or friend.
CNN: Is there anything we can do about this terrible trend?
Magnifying glass: There’s not much we can do about the trajectory of the deaths we’ll see over the next three weeks. This is because of the time lag: it usually takes about a week from when a person is exposed to when they have symptoms, then about another week to become sick enough to be hospitalized, then days to weeks before. that someone does not succumb. disease.
The people we might see die in the next two or three weeks are those who have already been exposed to the coronavirus, possibly during the December holiday season. The best that can be done is for these people to seek medical attention early and receive the best possible care to treat their illness, but it is too late to prevent them from becoming infected.
This is not the case for all people who have not yet been infected. There is a big difference between modeling a weather forecast and modeling an infectious disease. You may be able to predict the path of a hurricane and then get out of it, but you can’t change the direction of the hurricane. It’s different with a pandemic. The future is not predetermined. Our individual and collective actions now determine the spread of the virus.
We’ve been talking about basic public health measures for months now, and they are still our best protection against this highly contagious respiratory disease. Keep a physical distance – because this virus requires close contact. It’s better to be outdoors than indoors, as the outside air disperses virus particles. Wearing a mask – this can prevent the transmission and acquisition of coronavirus. Avoid crowded gatherings – and know that more than half of transmission (according to the CDC) is from people who don’t have symptoms and who may be infected but don’t know it. Wash your hands frequently and well.
These measures are additive. The more you do, the more consistent you are, the better protected you are. Our individual actions protect us and those around us. They also protect the community, reducing the spread of the coronavirus and helping to reduce the strain on our overwhelmed hospitals and public health systems. Collectively, our actions are helping to change the trajectory of the disease and are essential to stop this skyrocketing.
CNN: Why do you think the numbers keep going up? Are people just tired of following these precautions?
Magnifying glass: It is certainly part of it. Pandemic fatigue is very real. We have to recognize it. Yes, some people don’t believe the coronavirus is real and may flout the masking and social distancing guidelines. However, I think a lot of people have tried very hard to follow the precautions, but find it more and more difficult not to see their loved ones. They can let their guard down and there can be tragic consequences.
Another reason is that people may misunderstand what the arrival of vaccines means. The supply is so limited and the vaccine distribution has been much slower than we would have liked. Many people will not have access to vaccines for months. Even those who have received the vaccine may still be able to pass the virus on to others.
Make no mistake, vaccines will be a game changer when enough people can get the vaccine. It is amazing that we have safe and very effective vaccines. But that’s not what will get us out of this very dangerous wave. What will get us out are these public health measures.
I wish there was an easier solution. I think everyone would want this, and I know everyone is tired and wants this pandemic to end. But we must continue to be vigilant and keep our guards.
CNN: US President-elect Joe Biden has said he will request 100 days of mask wear. Will it make a difference?
Magnifying glass: Yes. An influential model from the University of Washington shows that wearing a mask can save 30,000 lives by March. It is truly remarkable. President-elect Biden spoke of the masks as a patriotic duty, a way for us to respect one another. We should wear masks whenever we are outside and cannot stand 6 feet away from others, and whenever we are indoors with those who are not in our immediate family.
Not having gatherings, indoors, with someone we don’t live with will also make a huge difference. In many parts of the country, what caused the latest wave to be these indoor gatherings – think dinners and game nights. It is in these intimate settings that people let their guard down and get infected.
I understand why people want to reunite with extended family and friends. The weather is cold and it is difficult to see yourself outside. However, our loved ones are just as likely to be asymptomatic carriers of Covid-19 as strangers. We must be extremely careful and have only external or virtual visits with those who are not in our immediate home.
CNN: With many new coronavirus infections, is this having an impact on how people should think about groceries or other basic activities?
Magnifying glass: When there are high rates of coronavirus in the community, it makes all of our activities riskier. Activities that were previously low risk are higher risk. This is because there are so many people around us who are carriers of coronavirus, and the chance of meeting someone – and being infected with it – is just getting higher.
I see more patients who have no idea where they got the coronavirus. There is a familiar story: They were very careful about quarantining and not putting themselves at risk. Maybe all they do is operate in environments that require masks and distance, or maybe the only exposures they have are through runs and races.
There is so much coronavirus around us that the same activities that were quite safe a few months ago are simply riskier now. This means that we have to be even more vigilant. If you were shopping once a week, consider reducing it to once every two weeks. If you’re especially vulnerable to serious illness, consider having your groceries delivered. Be even more careful if you have to take the metro or bus to get to work. Of course, wear a mask at all times (at least a three-ply surgical mask). Again, make sure you don’t get together indoors with people, even your close friends.
CNN: Is there any hope coming in the spring? Will warmer weather help?
Magnifying glass: It’s hard to know for sure. The coronavirus spreads more in cold weather. Warmer weather also means people will be able to see each other more outdoors, which can alleviate the loneliness that people feel while being safe. As spring approaches, more people will also be able to get the vaccine, which will also be protective.
It means we have to stay a little longer. There is hope on the horizon, but we have difficult weeks and months ahead. We can do it, with optimism and caution.
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