What the United States can learn from the brutal surge in India’s delta

[ad_1]

COVID-19 surge in India Abhishek Chinnappa / Getty Images

The Delta variant of the COVID-19 coronavirus was identified in India in late 2020, and in March, “a catastrophic increase in coronavirus cases ravaged India, killing tens of thousands in weeks, before plunging just as brutally “. The Washington Post reports. The sharp drop, instead of the expected continued exponential rise, surprised public health officials, but the virus has not faded or even dropped to pre-March numbers. In parts of India, cases are on the rise again.

“India’s experience with the Delta variant, which was responsible for nearly 90% of cases in May at the height of the second wave, offers insight for other countries, including the United States and China , while grappling with the stubbornly persistent variant, “the To post said.

The first lesson is that if there are pockets of people with no immunity – either because of vaccines or previous exposure to the coronavirus – the Delta variant will hunt them down ruthlessly. India’s vaccination rate is low, but a national seroprevalence survey released in July suggested that about two-thirds of the country had antibodies after the sudden spring surge. Karala state, India’s current epicenter, reported 44% HIV status.

“Another lesson from India’s experience with its delta wave: infection in children is probably not serious,” said the To post reports. India’s figures “are comparable to data shared by UNICEF on infection rates in children: Fourteen percent of all coronavirus infections in 103 countries were in people under the age of 20. mortality for the age group was less than 1 percent “.

A third lesson is that – “for reasons clear to anyone – Delta seems to be peaking and falling rapidly,” says Dr. Bob Wachter of UC San Francisco. This happened in India and also in Great Britain. The UK, like the US, has a relatively high vaccination rate, and Britain could move closer to “population immunity, with people immune to vaccinations or natural infections,” suggests Paul Hunter, Professor of Medicine at the University of East Anglia.

Ashish Jha, Dean of Brown University School of Public Health, said what he learned from watching India’s delta surge up close is that it’s really hard to predict when and how the next wave of COVID-19 will strike. He estimated that the Delta variant is so infectious that another outbreak is likely to come unless 80 to 90 percent of the population are vaccinated.

You may also like