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Michigan’s coronavirus numbers are now at their highest level in 2021.
“When you see Michigan is currently the second highest state in the country for coronavirus cases, that’s a boost,” said Melissa Samuel, CEO of the Health Care Association of Michigan.
It is a push with unique characteristics. Below is an overview of the geographic areas where outbreaks are most severe and which age groups are most affected.
Here are the trends of the last few weeks.
The highest number of cases are in young adults
Young adults in their twenties have had the most new cases of COVID-19 in the past three weeks, and the surge in this age group has been particularly evident in the past week.
“We are definitely seeing the impact of St. Patrick’s Day,” said Emily Toth Martin, epidemiologist at the University of Michigan.
Source: Michigan Department of Health and Human Services
Their 20s have accounted for 10,842 new cases since March 5, and more than half of those have been reported since the weekend after St. Patrick’s Day.
The graph below shows the figures for three seven-day periods from Saturday to Friday. These are not cumulative totals, but the number of new cases reported in each seven-day period.
Source: Michigan Department of Health and Human Services
The increase in cases among people under the age of 20 is also significant.
In the past three weeks, people under the age of 20 accounted for 21% of new cases compared to 13% in the first year of the pandemic. Average daily case rates since March 5 are up 195% for children under 10 and 205% for 10-19 year olds compared to the previous year’s average.
Experts attribute the increase to the reopening of schools and the resumption of school sports, but say classrooms and sports fields themselves are not necessarily the source of the infection. Rather, it could be activities around the school, such as athletes and their families eating together after a competition.
Ann Arbor Public Schools suspended all spring sports on Friday after a recent surge in COVID-19 cases involving student-athletes resulted in quarantine or disruption of participation.
“This is an important time to remind families of the importance of limiting socialization outside your home,” said Paul DeAngelis, district executive director for secondary education. “While COVID-19 protocols have been followed closely on school campuses, we are aware that off-campus socialization has contributed to some cases of student-athletes.”
Ann Arbor Public Schools Suspend Spring Sports After Rise In COVID-19 Cases
The much slower increase in cases among those 70 and older, an age group much more likely to be vaccinated, is also significant. In the first year of the pandemic, Michiganders aged 70 and over accounted for an average of 12% of cases. This has dropped to 4% in recent weeks.
The proportion of cases involving patients in their 60s has also fallen, from 12% in the first year of the pandemic to 9% in recent weeks.
Geographically, the worst epidemics are in the inch and northern Michigan
The top 10 counties per capita count as of March 1, in order: Huron, Missaukee, Sanilac, Wexford, St. Clair, Otsego, Lapeer, Macomb, Tuscola and Roscommon.
Huron, Sanilac, St. Clair, Lapeer and Tuscola are in the Thumb region and abut Macomb County.
Missaukee, Wexford, Otsego, and Roscommon are found in the northern Lower Peninsula and include the towns of Cadillac, Grayling, and McBain.
Below is a map that shows the per capita case rates so far for the month of March. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Can’t see them on the map? Click here.)
These first two regions are among the most politically conservative in the state. In the 2021 election, 76% of Missaukee voters backed Donald Trump, the highest percentage in the state.
On average, 67% of those four northern Michigan counties voted for Trump, the same average that supported Trump in the Thumb region.
Macomb, which is Michigan’s third most populous county, is by far the most conservative of Detroit’s three metropolitan counties, which also include Wayne and Oakland. About 53% of Macomb voters backed Trump in 2021.
However, the correlation between partisanship and the number of cases tends to crumble outside the top-ranked counties.
Washtenaw, Michigan’s most liberal county and home to the University of Michigan, ranks 48th among 83 states in new cases in March, and Wayne, the second most liberal, ranks 26th.
The last 10 counties in the new case count: Iron, Algiers, Luce, Baraga, Menominee, Schoolcraft, Dickinson, Marquette, all in upper Pennisula, and Ogemaw and Gratiot in the northeast of the Lower Peninsula.
In raw numbers, the Detroit metro – Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties, which have 39% of the state’s population – account for 44% of new cases this month.
The thumb region has the greatest increase in positivity rates
Huron and Sanilac counties, both in the thumb, rank No.1 and 2 for percentile increases in coronavirus diagnostic test positivity rates so far in March.
And Tuscola, Lapeer and St. Clair, which are also in this region, also make it to the top 10, along with Macomb, Otsego, Oscoda, Crawford and Wexford.
Five counties – all located on the Upper Peninsula – saw their positivity rates drop this month: Delta, Schoolcraft, Luce, Baraga and Keweenaw.
The map below is shaded by changes in the seven-day average positivity rates on March 1 compared to March 26. This shows us where the case rates have increased the fastest. (Can’t see the map? Click here.)
Highest hospitalization rate in southwest Michigan
1940 people were hospitalized in Michigan for COVID-19 on Friday, up from 824 on March 1.
The number of intensive care units increased from 195 to 394 during this period.
Southwest Michigan has the highest per capita hospitalization rate, although the Detroit metro easily has the highest gross numbers.
The distribution of hospitalizations on Friday by region:
- Region 5 (southwest Michigan): 124 hospitalized, rate 308.7 per million population.
- Region 2N (Oakland, Macomb and St. Clair counties): 632 hospitalized, rate of 275.9 per million population.
- Region 3 (Flint-Saginaw region): 241 hospitalized, rate of 250.2 per million inhabitants.
- Region 7 (northern Lower Peninsula): 78 hospitalized, rate 234.6 per million population.
- Region 2S (Wayne, Washtenaw and Monroe counties): 527 hospitalized, rate of 232.4 per million population.
- Region 1 (Lansing-Jackson region): 178 hospitalized, rate of 160 per million inhabitants.
- Region 6 (Grand Rapids region): 131 hospitalized, rate of 87.1 per million population.
- Region 8 (Upper Peninsula): 11 hospitalized, rate of 45.0 per million inhabitants.
Meanwhile, the Michigan Health and Hospital Association says the age composition of COVID-19 patients has changed, with a higher proportion of younger adults in hospitals. This reflects the success of generalized vaccination among the elderly.
The graph below shows the age distribution of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 on Thursday, March 25, compared to last fall / winter’s surge.
Graphic courtesy of Michigan Health & Hospital Association.
Too early to know the impact on the number of deaths
The state has so far reported 492 deaths in March, up from 925 in February.
However, deaths are a factor behind when it comes to coronavirus metrics. It takes several weeks after an increase in cases to see an increase in deaths, and a month or two to know the full impact of an outbreak on the number of deaths.
Deaths were down for the first half of March. But over the past 10 days, the seven-day average number of deaths reported daily has risen from 15 to 22. Given the surge in hospitalizations last week, that daily average is likely to rise.
Yet age is the biggest risk factor for dying from the coronavirus, and nearly two-thirds of people aged 65 and over have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Health experts hope that a high vaccination rate will moderate the increase in deaths from this outbreak.
Learn more about MLive:
Michigan’s COVID-19 numbers are increasing at a “ disturbing ” rate. What is happening?
Gender gap in pandemic unemployment narrows, but mothers still left behind
When congregations can’t come together: pandemic is forcing Michiganders to rethink the Church
FOX 2 Detroit presenter Maurielle Lue describes her ‘terrifying’ COVID battle: ‘I literally can’t breathe’
COVID-19 cases in Michigan nursing homes drop 96%, deaths 99% since late December
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