Why we need these 5 coronavirus vaccine companies to end the pandemic

Often times, we point to companies developing coronavirus vaccines as rivals. We’re all betting on who gets to market first or becomes the first supplier. There is, of course, a leadership position to be gained – and not all companies will earn it.

But given the global need for a vaccine, there is room for many players. As of December 1, 11 coronavirus vaccine developers have moved their projects to Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those 11, five are companies based in the United States or Europe. We need these five companies – and possibly their Chinese and Russian rivals – to end the pandemic. Let’s take a look at the current situation.

Achieve collective immunity

The aim of vaccination is to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity occurs when a certain percentage of the population acquires immunity against a virus. The result? The virus can no longer spread easily from person to person. Each disease has a different threshold of herd immunity. To achieve collective immunity against the coronavirus, between 50% and 67% of the population must be vaccinated or have been exposed to the virus.

Today’s world population is approximately 7.8 billion people. Of course, some may be recovered coronavirus patients and therefore may already have antibodies in their protective systems. But let’s assume everyone needs a vaccine – especially since it’s not yet clear how long antibodies last in recovered patients. (A recent article in the journal Immunity indicates that production of neutralizing antibodies – the ones that block infection – can last anywhere from five to seven months.) Now let’s use the more conservative 67% herd immunity benchmark. Researchers use it more frequently than the lowest estimate.

This means that we will need vaccines for 5.2 billion people. That’s not to say 5.2 billion doses, however. Four of the five leaders I will mention here are looking to bring two-dose vaccines to market. And the fifth company is trying a single dose vaccine. This means that we need 9.4 billion doses. Can our race leaders deliver?

The largest capacity

The company with the largest production capacity is AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN). The big pharmaceutical industry is expected to deliver around three billion doses by next year. AstraZeneca recently said it was preparing to submit data to all countries offering emergency clearance.

The second in terms of capacity is Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX). Biotech plans to produce two billion doses by mid-2021. Novavax expects interim phase 3 data at the start of the first quarter.

Then we have the team of Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX). They say they will make 1.3 billion doses available next year. On November 20, companies became the first to apply for emergency use authorization (EUA) from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for a vaccine candidate against the coronavirus.

Modern (NASDAQ: ARNM) aims to produce between 500 million and one billion doses next year. The biotech company filed for EUA on November 30.

And finally, Johnson & johnson (NYSE: JNJ) studying a single dose vaccine. The phase 3 trial resumed in October after stopping due to unexplained illness in a trial participant. A review did not find any evidence linking the disease to the vaccine candidate. It is not known when provisional data may be available. But J&J promises the delivery of a billion doses per year.

Together, companies can produce up to 8.3 billion doses. This does not match the $ 9.4 billion target that I mentioned above.

Data source: company press releases. Table by author.

What does this mean for investors?

Now what does this mean for the chances of a vaccine ending the pandemic? And what does all of this mean for investors? It is clear that in the short term there will not be enough doses of the vaccine for everyone. But that doesn’t necessarily mean disaster. Gradually, vaccination can slow down the transmission of the coronavirus. And it is a step towards the end of the pandemic.

For investors, that means you don’t have to pick a winner in this coronavirus vaccine race. All players with solid efficiency and safety are needed, even those who will come to market later. So your investment in one of today’s companies could pay off later if its vaccine candidate is approved. Stock prices are likely to increase upon product approval and as the product generates income.

The actions of treatment manufacturers will also benefit. Since the vaccination will not immediately stop the virus, patients will need therapy in the future.

The leaders of the vaccine race are about to cross the finish line. But in this race there are prizes for any strong contender who finishes later in the game. This is positive for the fight against coronaviruses and for investors.