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Traveling through four decades of satellite data, climatologists have concluded for the first time that humans are pushing seasonal temperatures out of equilibrium, what a researcher calls the "march of the seasons".
Always concerned about calculable uncertainties and climate deniers, the authors give "chances of about 5 in 1 million" of these naturally occurring changes without human influence.
As homicide detectives, climate scientists review evidence in search of what they call Over the years, they have broadcast the human signal of earth noise into temperature records annual and decennial, marine chemistry, rapid change in the Arctic and more.
What they discovered is an irregular rhythm of seasonal change in the atmosphere over the temperate zones of the northern and southern hemispheres. While global warming is known, summers in the troposphere heat faster than winters, in a way physics would dictate whether greenhouse gases were the culprit. The satellite data and the seasonal computer temperature change models used by the study agree in an even narrower way than when they measure the average annual temperature.
Ben Santer, atmospheric scientist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and lead author of the study, compares the temperature results to a wave that is washing on a beach. For each year in the 38-year-old satellite record, the team captured monthly temperature hollows (troughs) and highs (peaks). In the early years, the "waves" became small. At the end of the data set in the study, 2016, the waves went aground with higher troughs and much higher ridges.
The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, also draws attention to a persistent discrepancy between the results attributed to global warming Santer has already referred to congressional hearings in journal articles to committee of reading, dedicating a May 2017 article in Nature Scientific Reports to factual checks made at that time. WE Environmental Protection Administrator Scott Pruitt in a supplement writes to his confirmation auditions.
"To me when the wrong claims are high in the formal testimony of the congress and are part of the congressional record, then it is important to address them," Santer
Santer's last article comes during a busy week to the climate policy, several Republicans supporting a resolution against carbon taxes, another member of the Republican Congress is preparing a bill on carbon taxes and several research groups led by the Global Energy Policy publishes studies of new scenarios badyzing US prices carbon dioxide emissions.
Climate models are notoriously imperfect. The authors indicate where simulated warming has been known to exceed actual temperatures, the attention of a lot of attention in recent years. They advance briefly through several possible explanations, and reject the concern of some scientific critics that the models overestimate how fast the world is heating up.
"The badertion that an overestimation of warming is solely due to a significant error in sensitivity to the climate model has been tested elsewhere and is not credible," the authors write.
In the end, five of the six sets of satellite data show that the warming signal has risen above natural noise, according to the research. The changes of miles above the ground are part of the same puzzle visible from the window of your kitchen.
"There are a lot of observations that the seasonal cycle is changing, and it's also one of the most visible things in everyday life." The trees are blooming sooner, "he said. Friederike Otto, badociate professor at the Climate Research Program of the University of Oxford. "But until now, this has been difficult to disentangle formally and with high statistical significance from natural variability." [19659002] Santer sees work as an uncomfortable reminder of the global climate trend.
"The accumulation of evidence worries me," he said. "That's the kind of stuff you do not want to be right. "
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