Opening bell: the actions are close to the key speech of the Fed; USD Eyes High 17 months



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  • The actions after Kudlow's resumption at the White House indicate that a trade deal is possible
  • Commercial hopes stimulate the market despite anomalous underperformance of materials and industrial products
  • US Treasury yields flirt with a reversal of trend, a bearish signal for equities
  • goes back over $ 4,000

Key events

European stocks and European futures on, and blinked green in all areas, extending the rally observed yesterday on Wall Street, while investors found a stable position before a crucial speech by the federal presidency.

The rebound, backed by miners and energy producers, prompted traders to be inspired by a bullish Asian session where regional benchmarks such as Japan outperformed (+1, 02%). . Australia (-0.06%) is the only regional index to have closed in negative territory, dragged down by stocks of raw materials.

Global Financial Affairs

Yesterday, US equities regained strength, hoping to ease trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world. The natural exception was (-0.80%), whose luster faded every time traders see the light at the end of the trade dispute between the United States and China. On the other hand, outperformance (+ 0.44%), suggesting optimism about trade resolution, was the main driver of the market during the session.

The shares have reversed the losses after White House chief economics advisor Larry Kudlow said the meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump was an opportunity to "turn the page "on trade relations. Ironically, Kudlow's reinsurance did nothing for the commercial dispute agent sector (-1.22%), which is significantly underperforming. (-0.17%), the other sector most affected by the nervousness of trade, also fell behind. We have not found any explanation for this anomaly.

The 0.33% gain sealed gains of 1.87% in two days. The second weakest sector after the materials sector was "whose fate is linked to the oil problem," which nevertheless managed to close more than one percentage point more than the main lagged one (-0.28 %). (+ 1.04%) won the day's title, advancing for a third consecutive day as shares of CVS Health (NYSE 🙂 and Aetna (NYSE 🙂 continued to climb after gaining the # 39, state approval for their $ 69 billion merger on Monday.

CVS Health Weekly Table

CVS Health Weekly Table

CVS gained 2.13% on Tuesday, bringing its gains in three days to 5.87%. Technically, the trade structure has had considerable potential for health and safety since November 2016.

(+ 0.01%) barely managed to keep the gains this week.

10-year UST daily chart

In the meantime, the consolidation performance has been prolonged after the Fed Vice President gradually supported Powell's speech.

DXY Daily Chart

DXY Daily Chart

Initially slightly higher, it then rocked around neutral levels. Technically, the greenback reached 0.6% below the close of November 12 and 0.20% from the November 12th peak. Any additional gain will prolong the uptrend in the medium term and bring the USD to the highest level since June 2017.

The news between British Prime Minister Theresa May and the European Parliament appeared to be abandoning her attempts to pass her Bexit draft proposal without amendment. European bonds and meanders.

climbed above $ 4,000 after diving earlier in the week.

also rebounded to about $ 61 a barrel, although it slipped later into negative territory. Overall, recent movements in the oil market appear to be across the commodity spectrum this year.

Later in the day, Powell's speech will be scrutinized, even subtly, to see whether the slowdown in Fed interest rates will slow down or not. Recently, investors have reacted strongly to the continued removal of unprecedented central bank housing, the main downtrend of the longest bull market ever recorded. According to Clarida, the risks for the US economy are "less biased", while the President of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, was more cautious, telling Reuters that officials should monitor the possibility of "cracks" "in the US recovery and that growth would slow down 2019 and 2020.

We have repeatedly said that interest rates are the main driver of long-term market movements, while the history of trade between the United States and China will have less impact in the long run. Nevertheless, the attention of operators will also turn to the long-awaited meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires this week, the result remaining highly uncertain after Trump's recent contradictory messages.

Until the front

  • Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping plan to meet at the G-20 summit in Argentina, which begins Friday.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addresses the New York Economic Club on Wednesday.
  • Thursday will see the publication of the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Commission.

The market is moving

stocks

  • Futures on the S & P 500 climbed 0.1%, reaching their highest level in more than a week.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.5% at the highest level in two weeks.
  • The increase of 0.2 percent at the highest level in more than a week.
  • The increase was 0.8%, reaching its highest level in more than a week, with the largest increase in almost two weeks.

Coins

  • The Dollar Index rose more than 0.1% to its highest level in more than two weeks.
  • The 0.1% drop to 113.86 for the dollar, the lowest level in almost three weeks.
  • The pound sterling gained less than 0.05% to 1.2749 dollar.
  • The earned less than 0.05 percent.

Obligations

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose less than one basis point to 3.06%.
  • Germany's yield fell by one basis point to 0.34%.
  • The British yield fell by one basis point to 1.382%.
  • The spread of Italy's bonds to Germany rose by two basis points to 2.956 percentage points.

Basic products

  • The ticked 0.3 percent higher, the first advance in a week.
  • The LME rose 0.4% to $ 6,146.50 per tonne, the largest gain in a week.
  • slipped 0.2% to $ 1,213.19 an ounce, the lowest level in two weeks.

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