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The prices of the pound to the euro fell this morning, the pound having fallen more than half a cent since the opening of the European market.
The sharp decline in the pound seems to be the direct result of various Brexit information documents, published yesterday. These conclusions have given rise to rather bleak readings, the Treasury's conclusions indicating that whatever version of Brexit we ultimately get, they will all have a negative impact on the UK economy.
Could the pound / euro rates reach parity?
The Bank of England (BoE) also released its own Brexit assessment, which was even more damaging in terms of the potential impact on Brexit, not on the UK economy, but ultimately on the value of the pound. According to them, in the worst case, the pound could lose more than 25% of its value. If this happened, the pound would be below par with the euro and the US dollar.
Although some believe that the BoE could have its own agenda when publishing these statistics, it is clear that our imminent Brexit single block is likely to put some pressure on the British economy and ultimately on the pound sterling , at least in the years to come. short term.
The question investors will ask themselves now is whether the recession will be aggressive, whether the pound sterling can find any kind of protection when the Brexit saga grumbles.
The outlook for the euro
The euro itself has also felt the tension in recent weeks, as economic concerns in Italy and the long-term impact of Brexit continue to weigh on investors. The euro would probably have fallen against the pound without the current lack of confidence of sterling investors.
Personally, if I had an imminent exchange requirement between pound sterling and euro, I would be very tempted to protect my monetary position as far as possible.
The British Prime Minister, however, risks not getting enough parliamentary support to advance the current Brexit agreement, and the very real prospect of a scenario without a Brexit deal could put a lot of pressure on Brexit. sterling in the coming weeks and beyond.
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