Pound Sterling / Euro Exchange Rate Forecasts: Best GBP / EUR Exchange Rates on Local Election After Corbyn Brexit Election

UPDATE MAY 6, No. 2: Exchange rates of the pound to the euro seemed to find a temporary support around the level of € 1.1715 before the European session, the last £ to € having been seen at $ 1,1722.

Following Friday's comments from opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, which caused the rise in the GBP – post-local elections during which the conservative and labor parties were "punished" for their management of Brexit – Focus will be put on Brexit as multi-party negotiations enter their final phase with investors eagerly awaiting the crucial outcome.

"In the UK, we will follow the multi-party negotiations between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn that May's team will want to wrap up this week after both parties suffered last week's UK election." According to media reports, Theresa May is preparing to offer Corbyn to conclude a customs agreement with the EU, "wrote Mikael Olai Milhøj, an analyst at Danske Bank.

As for the data, Monday's session will contain a whole series of euro area publications, including the latest PMIs from the big four services sector, Sentix investor confidence figures and retail sales figures. d & # 39; Eurostat.

UPDATE MAY 6: At the opening of the new week, the exchange rate of the pound to the euro fell slightly compared to last week's stellar gains, quoted at 1.17264 € Monday, May 6, public holiday in the United Kingdom.

Sterling strategists at Maybank noted that "there were some positive developments on the Brexit that could have supported the recovery of the pound sterling." The prime minister said he was ready to respect the rest from the deputies' speech on the brexit, while the multi-party talks seemed to be going on, is preparing to abide by the EU's customs rules, the prime minister hopes that the UK will leave well before the 31 October deadline. There seems to be a trade-off because Premier May's attempts could strike a balance to please the Brexiters and the masters. "

In their latest foreign exchange research report, Nordea analysts suggest that the markets could see sterling exchange rates weaken in the near term.

"It is remarkable that the Bank of England does not support as clearly the strengthening of the pound sterling, unlike the EUR / GBP traded above 0.90 in August 2018. In 2018, when the United Core CPI exceeded targets, it was easy to see that Bank of England had a low tolerance towards a weaker GBP (because of the impact on the CPI ) and wanted a GBP unchanged, or even stronger, to contain inflation, which is far from obvious.Poland now seems relatively free to weaken compared to the second half of 2018. "

Despite solid data on the eurozone and a lack of solid news, the sterling / euro exchange rate rallied at the close on Friday, reaching its record high of a month.

The exchange rate closed the week around 1.7618 euro.

Prior to the last-minute rise in the pound sterling, GBPEUR declined in the face of hopes of signs of economic recovery in the eurozone and market concerns that the Brexit process would not be resolved for some time.

In addition to Brexit speculation and developments, the pair will be driven by euro zone data next week.

After opening at 1.1578 last week, GBP / EUR briefly dipped before spending most of the week on the rise.

Friday morning, the GBP / EUR has reached its best level since the beginning of April, at 1.1671, before retreating slightly. Despite this slippage, GBP / EUR posted a near-par trend of 1.1650 at the end of the week, retaining about half a cent in gains.

GBP / EUR exchange rate falls when UK data fails to impress

Most of the gains in last week's pound / euro exchange rate are due to speculation that the British government and the opposition Labor party were getting closer to finding a compromise on how to solve Brexit.

However, in the absence of solid developments at the end of the week, investors have once again begun to fear that an agreement will not be reached in time and that uncertainty about Brexit may continue for months.

The pound sterling did not even find much support in a seemingly warmongering tone from the Bank of England (BoE) last week. According to MUFG analysts, the Brexit uncertainty makes the BoE's interest rate hike seem too unlikely despite the hawkish policy:

"We believe the lingering uncertainty about Brexit, coupled with concerns about slowing growth abroad, will deter the BoE from achieving a more immediate rate hike. We remain skeptical about the outcome of negotiations between the government and Labor on Brexit, '

In addition to the Brexit uncertainties, the pound's call was further strengthened on Friday, while the latest UK PMI data for services indicated that service sector activity had also been reduced more than expected by the uncertainty in the market. Brexit.

Whatever the case may be, the euro was still not attractive at the end of the week. Weekly inflation and growth data in the eurozone exceeded expectations, but worries over the ongoing slowdown in euro area manufacturing continued to put pressure on the euro ahead of data for the week. the euro zone.

British Pound (GBP) Exchange Rate Prediction: Brexit's uncertainty could widen further

Some notable British ecostats, such as the report on the British first quarter growth rate, could affect the pound sterling are surprising investors, but news from Brexit is much more likely to be influential.

While investors are selling the pound sterling at its best because of the lack of solid positive developments on the Brexit, this sale could continue at the opening of the markets.

British markets will open Tuesday next week, due on a Monday holiday.

Negotiations between the government and opposition Labor will remain at the center of the agenda.

In positive positive development, the pound could support most of last week's gains. New doubts or uncertainties about Brexit, or even news of the failures of the discussions, would lead to a fall in the pound.

Events to watch for the GBP include Halifax HPI, BRC Retail Monitor, RICS House Price Balance, GDP, UK Manufacturing Output, UK Preliminary GDP, Preliminary Commercial Investment , UK construction sector, Libya, services index, UK industrial production and NIESR GDP estimate.

Euro (EUR) Exchange rate forecasts: Could eurozone data boost euro's appeal?

The euro remains generally unattractive as investors fear that the global economic downturn will continue to affect economic activity in the euro area.

However, if the next eco-statistics statistics on the euro area next week exceed expectations, investors could hope more that the euro area is recovering and could grow stronger in the coming months.

Monday will see the release of a number of key statistics. Markit April final composite services and composite PMI for the month of April will be published, as will the euro area retail sales statistics for the month of March.

Statistics on German factory orders on Tuesday, data on German industrial output on Wednesday and the German trade balance on Friday will also likely have an influence, given the slowdown in growth.

If many euro area statistics exceed expectations, market demand for the euro could pick up and losses in the pound / euro (GBP / EUR) exchange rate accelerate.

Events to watch for the EUR include the Spanish Services PMI, the Italian Services PMI, the French PMI of the final services, the German PMI of the final services, the PMI of the final services, the Spanish change of the unemployment, the Sentix Investor Confidence, Retail Sales, Spanish Ten Year Auctions, EU Economic Forecast, Orders Made in Germany, French Trade Balance, German Industrial Production, ECB Bank Statement Holiday, accounts of the monetary policy meeting of the ECB, Italian retail sales, Italian industrial production, Trade balance, French industrial production and French Prelim payroll.

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