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Until 2030, the sun, wind and batteries will be powered at the speed needed to limit global warming to two degrees or less. But from 2030, the situation gets worse.
That is the conclusion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, which launched Tuesday its annual analysis of global energy markets at the Statkraft conference at Oslo City Hall. Over the years, the BNEF has proven to have more realistic projections, particularly for renewable energies, than the International Energy Agency, IEA.
– The combination of sun and wind may take longer to replace fossil energy than we thought. And with the help of batteries, this proportion can reach 80% in many countries, but it is difficult to lengthen. The reason is that the batteries can not cover a longer temperature drop in winter, says Seb Henbest, who led the analysis.
X must be helped
Previously, the BNEF assumed that biological, nuclear, tidal, hydrogen and other renewable energy technologies could supplement electricity production when the sun or wind was insufficient.
– But for now, none of these technologies can outperform coal, gas or nuclear power plants. Starting in 2030, we need a new technology, an unknown X, that can be deployed efficiently and at a cost sufficient to replace conventional power plants, "said Henbest.
He believes that one of the most important things politicians can do is support the research and development of technologies other than the sun and the wind, which are already competitive.
The analysis agency believes that nuclear energy, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage and biogas will be among the technologies that can be developed to play a role.
The BNEF estimates that electricity needs will be 20% higher in 2050 than today and will require investments of more than $ 13 billion. The most important development will take place in Asia.
The United States becomes slowly renewable
In recent years, solar and wind energy prices have officially dropped and are now cheaper than conventional energy such as coal and gas in two-thirds of the world's population without subsidies. The analyst agency believes that the huge cost savings will continue.
Solar and wind energy currently account for 7% of electricity generation. According to BNEF, this share will reach nearly 50% in the world until 2050.
By 2050, the sun and wind will account for nearly half of global electricity production, up from 7% today, is waiting for the Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst agency, which comes of a new solar park with 112,000 solar panels at La Colle des Mées in Provence.
(Photo: Gerard Julein / AFP / NTB Scanpix)
BNEF expects renewable energy sources to account for 71% of global electricity generation in 2050, with the most important energies being water and nuclear, in addition to energy. solar and wind energy.
The development of the sun and wind is unmatched in Europe, where the BNEF expects solar and wind, assisted by batteries, to produce 92% of the energy by 2050. This will result in a reduction emissions of 95% from 2018, according to the BNEF.
Norwegian contribution
The large share of hydropower in Europe contributes to this proportion being above 80%. Europe will then be one step ahead of the United States and China, where gas and coal will be the cheapest for many years. BNEF forecasts that renewable energies will produce 43% of electricity in the United States, 62% in China and 63% in India.
Statkraft chief, Christian Rynning-Tønnesen, pointed out that Norway, with 50% of hydropower in Europe, could make a significant and larger contribution than today, so that Europe can reduce its emissions by 95%.
Sales of electric cars like Oslo in 2050
The BNEF has for the first time analyzed the electrification needs of all road transport and home heating systems. This will result in a 25% increase in electricity consumption and a simultaneous reduction in emissions of 126 gigatonnes of CO2 from 2018 to 2015, the agency estimates.
The BNEF recently considered in an analysis of electric cars that 57% of cars sold in 2050 will be electric cars. It is on a par with Oslo today.
Starting in the mid-2020s, the BNEF expects electric cars to be cheaper than gasoline and diesel cars, and that they give the necessary impetus in countries where electric cars are not subsidized.(Conditions)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases using the link that leads directly to our pages. Copying or other forms of use of all or part of the content may only take place after written authorization or as permitted by law. For other words, see here.
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