[ad_1]
European stock markets rise Monday morning after the signing of a divorce agreement by the EU and the UK.
But the strategy of boss Christian Lie in Danske Bank Wealth Management instead called water in the blood of optimists.
"Investors desperately need good news, but progress in the Brexit negotiations will unfortunately not be enough," he wrote in a weekly statement.
Strategen thinks that the vote in the British parliament in mid-December will be much more exciting.
"In the UK, one could also hear about a possible mistrust proposal against Theresa May, although we believe that the likelihood of this happening has decreased." And most importantly, we have the question about the DUP party. (Democratic Unionist Party, Red.) The threat of withdrawing support for the government, he continues.
Italy Storm
Lie first draws that the storm has not lied about Italian politics.
In addition, according to the EU, it will counter several reforms implemented in recent years.
"Although this paves the way for an excessive historical debt procedure against Italy, signals from Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini have expressed their willingness to take into account the EU on certain points that Italian government rates fell slightly at the end of the week, "said Sjefstrategen. .
G20-voltage
In addition, we have of course the trade dispute between the United States and China.
"Many are both enthusiastic and anxious before the G20 summit, which begins on November 30. This week, among other things, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the negotiations were now proceeding much more These signals corroborate our expectations of a 60% probability that the meeting will be the beginning of a ceasefire between the countries, "said Lie.
Shock Oil
The shock of the bids and the fear of weaker growth in demand have manifested themselves Oil prices are falling below $ 60, but a Danish strategy believes that oil prices will rise somewhat in the future.
"We believe that oil prices will be influenced by OPEC production cuts after the December 6 meeting, as well as by the fact that lower oil prices will boost, in isolation, the price of oil. increased demand, especially in the net oil importing countries, which will now benefit from a positive growth momentum, he writes.
European fears
Lie had a less pleasant surprise on Friday PMI indicators for the euro area in general and Germany in particular fell more than expected.
"The numbers increase the fear that zero growth in the third quarter is not only temporary, but that this fourth quarter could also be low," he said.
Fed-pilot
In the United States, the Strathens market is only 65% of the probability that the Federal Reserve will increase its key rate in December, against 80% just a few weeks ago.
"As a result, the US inflation figures will be extremely important next week.The market turbulence, the drop in oil prices and the increased uncertainty about global growth prospects may contribute to this. that the Fed adopts a slightly more duet attitude, writes Lie.
Danske Bank thinks that underlying inflation will reach 1.9% in October, which is close to the central bank's target.
– This will confirm our assumption that the Federal Reserve will keep the autopilot activated until June 2019, when the key rate will be at the neutral level of 3.0%, the strategy continues.
ECB-relief
Friday comes the inflation figures of the euro area. Danske Bank expects a 2.2% -2.0% drop in October and core inflation will remain unchanged at 1.1%.
"None of these elements will affect the European Central Bank's (ECB) ambition to end quantitative easing early in the year," Lie said.
China-fall
Danske Bank strategen also believes that the purchasing authority indices (PMI) of the Chinese authorities will hold the spotlight this week. The bank believes in a further weakening at 49.9 index points, so below 50, which marks the gap between expansion and decline of the economy.
"We believe that the Chinese economy will continue to deteriorate towards the second quarter of next year, while we expect that stimulus measures start to appear in the key figures of the economy," Mr. Lie concludes.
[ad_2]
Source link
