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Oil prices are recovering on Monday after the bad fall late last week.
Brent oil is back in the 60s, having risen 2.3% to reach $ 60.16 a barrel. WTI oil is up 1.4% to 51.12 US dollars per barrel.
Rejuvenation of the eye oil
The oil analyst Helge André Martinsen of DNB Markets expects that it will be the same in the future.
"We expect oil prices to return, as we expect a tighter market equilibrium over time," he wrote in a report.
In addition, the brokerage estimates that a WTI price of about 50 US dollars a barrel is too low for shale oil growth to provide a medium-term market equilibrium .
Martinsen expects OPEC to cut production at its December meeting.
– A small victim of OPEC
According to his estimates, OPEC is expected to reduce by 1.4 million barrels a day its October level to balance the market in 2019.
He believes this will be a small sacrifice for OPEC, including record production in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
"As we expect a decline in production in Iran and Venezuela, respectively." At 0.17 and 0.8 million barrels per day compared to October, we estimate that a reduction of 0.4 million barrels is needed among other OPEC members.If OPEC / OPEC + provides a significant reduction of more than 0.5 million barrels a day, we risk seeing OPEC is returning the global oil market to the supply gap, argues Mr Martinsen.
Cutter estimate 2019
DNB Markets lowered its oil price estimate from $ 83 to $ 75, due to a reduction in the call for OPEC (the production required by OPEC to balance the market , report) of 0.23 million barrels per day.
In addition, we projected our production for Iran at 0.15 million barrels a day after the Trump government announced an exception to sanctions.
Exceptions of up to 180 days apply to eight of Iran's largest importers of oil, namely China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Japan, Greece and Taiwan.
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