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The variant was first spotted in South Africa in October and has now been found in more than a dozen countries.
“I think we should be alarmed,” said Penny Moore, associate professor at the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in South Africa and lead author of the study.
“Based on Penny’s data, it’s likely the vaccine will be a little less effective, but we don’t know how much less effective,” said David Montefiori, virologist at Duke University Medical Center.
Montefiori added that this was the first study to give him serious doubts about whether a previous infection or a vaccine would protect against a new variant of the coronavirus.
“This is the first time that I have been concerned about a variant that partially bypasses the immune response and partially bypasses the vaccine,” he said.
The two experts stressed that people should always get the vaccine. It is extremely effective against other forms of the virus and they believe it will give some level of protection against the new variant as well.
The study was posted on a pre-print server and was not peer reviewed and published in a medical journal.
This is one of the first reports to examine the effect of the variant on antibody potency. Laboratories around the world are studying the problem fiercely and expect to publish results in the coming weeks.
“I worry desperately in the next six to twelve weeks we’re going to see a situation with this pandemic unlike anything we’ve seen so far. And it’s really a challenge that I don’t think most people are still realizing, “Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota and member of President-elect Joe Biden’s Covid-19 Transition Advisory Board, told CNN’s New Day.
“ A two-armed escape of the immune system ”
In the study, Moore and his colleagues drew blood from 44 people with Covid-19. Almost all of their cases have been confirmed to have occurred before September, which is before the variant was spotted in South Africa.
The researchers then investigated whether their antibodies would help fight the new variant.
For about half of the 44 people, their antibodies were powerless against the new variant.
“We saw a knockout,” Moore said. “It was a frightening result.”
For the other half, the antibody response was weakened, but not completely eliminated.
The analysis showed that the strongest antibody response came from those who had suffered more severe cases of Covid-19 and therefore developed a stronger antibody response after their illness.
The culprits were mutations in two different parts of the spikes at the top of the coronavirus. Vaccines work by targeting these peaks.
“It was a two-armed escape from the immune system,” said Moore.
Moore stressed that these are lab results and that studies need to be done to see if people who have previously had Covid-19 get re-infected with the new variant.
Antibody tests did not measure other immune responses, such as T cell responses, which are generated by infections and previous vaccines.
What this means for the vaccine
Moore’s team is now collecting blood from people who have been vaccinated to see if their antibodies can fight the new variant.
“I think the data on people who have already been infected raises all kinds of red flags for vaccines,” she said. “We have to test it to find out.”
Montefiori, the Duke virologist, agrees.
“I have no reason to believe that the results with people who have been vaccinated will be any different from those with people who have had an infection before,” he said.
For several reasons, Montefiori believes the vaccine will likely take a hit – but probably not a huge one.
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First, the two vaccines licensed in the United States work very well, so even if the new variant struggles, the reduction in vaccine effectiveness is unlikely to be devastating.
“We have to remember that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective – this is an extraordinary level of effectiveness,” Montefiori said. “If it’s reduced to 90, 80, 70 percent efficiency, it’s still very, very good and likely to have a major impact on the pandemic.”
Moreover, while surveillance in South Africa shows that the new variant is becoming the dominant variant in the country, Montefiori points out that it has only been found in small numbers in 13 other countries.
In addition, getting the vaccine can trigger a stronger antibody response than infection.
On Monday, researchers from Sheba Medical Center in Israel announced that a blood test of 102 hospital workers who had received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine showed their average antibody levels were higher than those found in people who had recovered from severe Covid-19. . This study has not been peer reviewed, published, or posted online.
“This is great news,” Moore said.
As scientists determine what effect the variant might have on the vaccine, experts advise that prevention, like wearing a mask and social distancing, is the best way to reduce rates of Covid-19 – this and get vaccinated when you can. .
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