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What will be the size of the 2018/2019 soybean crop? This is the question that several consulting firms have devoted themselves to in recent weeks. The blog has collected 10 data on the estimated size of production during this cycle, from the official to the forecast of banks operating in the sector. There is a projection difference of more than 10 million tonnes between companies. And why so much? The tools used to evaluate the harvest and survey model are some of the responses presented to explain such a disparity in the volume that is expected to leave crops this year. In addition, some consultations have already taken into account the risk of irregular rainfall that could further impede the development of the crop.
Conab
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19659006] Fras & Mercado on Friday published a new study of the harvest and referred to a reduction of nearly 7 million of the expected production compared to the last report. In December, the forecast was 122.2 million tons and 115.7 million . Climatic problems in states such as Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná are among the main reasons for the reduction of the estimate, because the climatic problems generate a bad harvest in these regions, mainly.
Agroconsult
The projection of Agroconsult published Thursday indicates a crop of 117.6 million soybean against 122.8 million tonnes expected in December. Even with a 3.1% increase in the area sown during this cycle, drought and high temperatures have affected production mainly to the west and north of Paraná and south of Mato Grosso do Sul. in these areas, the average productivity should be 35 bags per hectare.
Rabobank
A survey of the world's largest agrifood bank predicts production of 119 million tonnes very close to the historical record of 119.2 million tonnes harvested during the 1980s. last cycle. Rabobank predicts that the expansion of the area is expected to offset some of the losses, with Brazil having recorded an increase of nearly one million hectares in this crop.
AgRural
In the latest survey conducted in December 2018, the consulting firm estimated production at 121.4 million but at 116.9 million tonnes . The reduction of 4.5 million tonnes from the previous estimate is the sum of losses estimated at 2.5 million in Paraná, 1 million in Mato Grosso do Sul and 1 million in the other producing States.
SIM Consult [19659005] The consulting firm estimates that soybean production would be 104 million tonnes in the 2018/2019 season, 15 million tonnes less than the harvest of the previous cycle, while Brazil produced just over 119 million tonnes. The company points out that the worsening drought during the soybean breeding phase and the drought predictions highlighted by North American weather models point to more problems in states such as Minas Gerais, Maranhão and Bahia. . The number also takes into account the damage observed in the regions of Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul.
INTL FCStone
North American IntL FCStone has reduced forecasts of soybean harvest in Brazil by 4 million tonnes . Agrinvest Commodities estimates that the production cycle is expected to reach 113.18 million tonnes which should reach 116.2 million tonnes, compared to 120.2 million tonnes in December.
Agrinvest
works l, about minus 8 million less than in the previous cycle . Domestic soybean production has losses mainly in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul.
Consultancy estimates 117.5 million tons of soybeans volume of 3 million tons less than forecast in December and more than 7 million that of the original survey, conducted in September of the past year. The largest losses of Terra Agronegócio occurred in Paraná (3.1 million tonnes less), followed by Mato Grosso do Sul (1.1 million tonnes) and other regions, such as Goiás (600 000 tonnes). tonnes) [19659028] Scot Consultoria
The company estimated a harvest of more than 120 million tonnes and now forecasts production close to 119 million tonnes a little less than that of the previous harvest at Brazil. Average productivity is revised downward and the consulting firm does not rule out forecast cuts due to lack of rain in the south-central regions.
The opinion of who produced
Brazilian Association of Soybean and Corn Producers The cereal harvest in the country will be between [110 millions] and [115 millions] tonnes . According to the organization, crops growing in the country, such as in southwestern Goiás, an important area of Brazilian agriculture, are already losing up to 15% in some fields.
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