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Like other sectors, industry confidence retreated in June. The decline is 1.0 point to 100.1 points, the lowest level since January this year (99.4 points), informed the Foundation Getulio Vargas (FGV) Friday (29). Even so, the indicator ended the second quarter with an increase of 0.2 point from the first quarter, from 100.5 points to 100.7 points.
Tabi Thuler Santos, coordinator of the investigation at FGV, says that the fall in confidence in the industry is related to the problems caused by the truckers strike. "The discontinuity of road freight transport between late May and early June has increased finished product inventories and reduced input stocks, affecting costs, production, capacity utilization and confidence. "
In addition, it highlights the improvement of expectations, but considers that it could be acting a temporary effect, influenced by the basic effect of the poor performance of the sector in May.
Industrial confidence fell in 12 of the 19 industrial segments. The current situation index (ISA) fell by 5.5 points to 95.1 points, its lowest level since September 2017 (90.8 points). On the other hand, the expectations index rose by 3.4 points to 105.0 points, reaching the highest level since May 2013 (105.4 points).
As Tabi mentioned, the "expressive" deterioration in inventory levels was decisive for the month's decline in confidence. The percentage of companies with surplus products rose from 7.9% to 12.8% between May and June – the worst result since April 2017 (12.9%). The proportion of industries with insufficient stocks increased from 3.9% to 4.5%, returning to the same level as in April of this year.
On the other hand, the best expectations in terms of hiring and production also influenced the progress of IE in June. The indicator of the evolution of people with jobs over the next three months rose by 6.2 points to 107.3 points – the highest since June 2011 (108.8), while the expected production indicator for the next three months rose by 5.8 points to 108.0 points, a record since May 2013 (108.1)
The level of capacity utilization installed (NUCI) decreased further after nine months. The decline was 0.3 percentage points to 76.2%. In quarterly terms, the NUCI index rose by 0.9 percentage points between January and March, reaching 76.4%.
The June 2018 edition collected information from 1,069 companies between the 4th and the 26th of this month. The next announcement of the industry survey will be on July 27th and the preview will be announced on July 20th.
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