[ad_1]
RIO – The Football World Cup avoided the biggest decline in the industry confidence index (ICI) between May and June, down 1 point to 100.1 points, the lowest level since January of this year
According to Tabi Thuler Santos, coordinator of the industry survey of the Brazilian Institute of Economics Foundation Getulio Vargas (Ibre / FGV ) – a study of which ICI is a summary indicator – there was in the same period a leap in the unsustainable confidence among the four categories of use of the processing industry, the only one to present a breakthrough in the period.
In practice, the purchase of non-durable drinks and other, According to her, the unsustainable industry confidence indicator increased by 5.7 points between May and June to reach 89.7 points. . The sustainable industry, in turn, showed a 5-point decline in confidence at 100.9 points over the same period.
"There were two signs exchanged It is important to note that even with indentation, the durable presents a good score [acima de 100 pontos, limite favorável de confiança] although unsustainable, even with the increase, has a long way to go [na confiança] to be with 89.7 points. "
The specialist noted that the behavior of non-durable shows even more atypical compared to the other two major categories of use questioned the foundation. While the confidence of the equipment goods remained stable at 102.2 points, the intermediaries lost 2.5 points to establish at 102.8 points.
"The fact that confidence has increased in durable goods has contributed to According to the study, stopping trucks has led the manufacturing industry to be on the verge of" overpopulation. " in June. Indeed, due to the stop of the category, with acts and roadblocks, the products did not reach the outlets.
From May to June, the ICI fell 1 point between May and June, to 100.1 points, its lowest level since January 2018 (99.4 points). The same survey showed that the inventory level of subjects rose from 96.7 points to 109.8 points between May and June, with a perception of high stocks in 13 of the 19 segments studied by the foundation. Tabi added that without the deterioration of inventories, the industry's confidence would be stable in June – and would not have shown. He said that it is difficult to predict when stocks can return to normal, and estimates the volatility of ICIs by the end of the year.
From May to June, the share of companies reporting excessive inventories rose from 7.9% to 12%, 8%, the largest share of this issue since April 2017 (12.9%).
Also because of the truckers' strike, it went from 3.9% to 4.5% during the same period. considered insufficient stocks. "This percentage of companies who complained of insufficient inventory, we consider that many were harmed by the fact that they have not received inputs for production," he said. he said, noting that this ultimately affected stock formation. of the utilization of installed capacity (Nuci), which decreased by 0.3 percentage point between May and June, to 76.2%, the first reduction of Nuci since September 2017.
"[19659011] "We have a volatile external environment and [um ambiente] domestic volatile too. "The exchange rate devaluing a lot, and the foreign demand can be even more restricted.The United States reconsider their interest," he said, adding that these international aspects could have an impact on the country's industrial confidence. "As for the closing, it was a pbading effect, which marked the months of May and June and that had an effect on the lost production. I think [a greve per si] will have no impact ahead, but the Government reaction [à greve] "
In Tabi's badysis, the move brought a lot of reverberations in the economy, such as the issue of establishing a table of Freight and diesel government subsidy, as the main claim of truckers was the price of this fuel. The expert commented that, in addition to the tax effect, the freight table can bring cost increases for the industry – and this, specifically, can have a more lasting impact on industrial confidence.
At the same time, the proximity of the presidential elections in She said that with all these factors combined, the trend of both confidence and stocks in the industry would be negative.
"I think the trend of confidence in the industry over the next few months will be more volatile, we must look at the following results to find out what will happen."
[ad_2]
Source link
