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Tatiana Freitas and Isis Almeida, of Bloomberg
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June 30, 2018, 8:00 am
The trade dispute between the United States and China does not only generate bad news for the producers of soybean
The dispute has raise prices in Brazil, the biggest exporter, forcing EU processors to solicit bids. in other places. According to Rabobank International, the United States is expected to surpbad Brazil as the largest seller in the 28-country bloc, according to Rabobank International. "If China applies tariffs, we think the EU will import more grains from the United States than from Brazil." Said Michael Magdovitz, an oilseeds badyst in London at Rabobank, a bank for traders agricultural products. "Tightening trade has intensified in recent weeks as China has promised to respond to tariffs that US President Donald Trump threatens to impose on another US dollar."
China is the world's largest soybean importer, part of which is used for animal feed production, and the prospect of a reduction in US exports has increased market premiums Brazilian
On Thursday, soybeans aboard the Brazilian port of Paranaguá in September posted a premium of $ 1.95 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade futures contract, according to broker Ary Oleofar based in Sao Paulo. That's double the previous month.
The EU is the second largest soybean destination in Brazil, the country's leading exporter for at least six seasons, according to data from the Brazilian government and the European Commission. According to an estimate from the oil-based oil company Hamburg, Oil World, the situation could soon change as a possible trade war should bring China's share of South American soybean imports to 90% between June and December . China could replace about 4 million tonnes of US soybeans by a Brazilian bid in the fourth quarter if tariffs are applied, according to Rabobank. This loss would be partially offset by a non-Chinese demand of 2 million tonnes that would go from Brazil to the United States, largely thanks to the EU, the bank said.
"It's already happening," said Pedro Dejneka, MD Commodities, based in Chicago. "China concentrates its purchases in Brazil and the rest of the world turns to the United States"
Imports of soya beans by the European Union , with participation of Brazil in orange and United States in gray (Graph / Bloomberg)
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