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SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS) – The trade war between the United States and China increases Brazil's export potential for these two countries by US $ 7.4 billion a year, according to a report. investigation of the CNI (National Confederation of Industry), carried out at the request of the report.
The United States announced surcharges of 25% on 818 Chinese products, worth US $ 34 billion, which will come into effect on July 6th.
284 other products, valued at 16 billion US dollars, will be the subject of a public consultation on 24 July and may be the subject of subsequent tariffs.
The United States accuses China of intellectual property theft by forcing US companies to transfer the technology to Chinese SOEs to gain access to the Chinese market.
China announced retaliatory duties of 25% on 545 US products, for a total of $ 34 billion, also effective July 6th.
Beijing evaluates a second series of surcharges of more than US $ 16 billion of US products, still undetermined.
In general, Brazil, like all other countries, tends to lose with the trade war because of the impact that this protectionist escalation can have on global growth and commodity prices.
"But the survey shows that there are spaces that Brazil can occupy, it's time for Brazilian companies to relocate, as the US and China will look for other suppliers", explains Diego Bonomo, executive director of international affairs at CNI.
Some of the US products that will be taxed in China are already exported by Brazil, such as pork, soy, and fish, and there may be a significant increase in sales.
About 35% of Brazilian fish exports – which include fish, crustaceans and molluscs – are destined for China.
Brazilian products paid an additional 12% to enter the country, and today they pay 7%. Most fish exporters to China have no tariffs.
"With Americans paying 25% of the tariff, we are gaining in competitiveness and we will migrate to the Chinese market, which will pay better," says Eduardo Lobo, president of Abipesca (industry badociation).
He expects a 12% increase in exports, or 240 million US dollars, due to the reorientation of sales and price improvement.
In the case of pork, Brazil plans to double its exports to China from 48,900 tons in 2017 to 100,000 tons this year.
According to the CNI study, Brazil could increase its sales to China by 6.4 billion US dollars, starting to export products that it sells to other countries, but not yet market, or sell very little.
This is the case of some chemicals, cereals, fruits and vehicles. They are also exported by the Americans, but will be priced at 25%.
"Obviously, we are not the only ones trying to conquer this market, and the new tariffs will not make all US exports to China, and vice versa," Bonomo says.
There are barriers that may prevent Brazil from taking advantage of such opportunities, such as the cost of transportation to China, competition from other countries with tariff preferences and, in the case of agricultural products, non-tariff barriers. tariff.
For example: Brazil exports 40,000 tons of orange juice each year to China.
But the country does not export certain types of juice, because the customs rules greatly increase the cost – and that will not change; nor the 25% tariff on American juice, which has a small share in China, would make a big difference.
In the US market, the main gain will be the increased competitiveness of industrial products.
Brazil exports for US $ 3.9 billion of products for which it competes with China in the United States, such as auto parts, certain types of machinery, chemicals and chemicals. plastics, rubbers.
In addition, Brazil already exports for US $ 1 billion of products that it already exports to the world, but not to the United States, or only in very small quantities, and it could continue to sell on the US market.
Are there any types of vehicles and tractors, machinery and electrical materials, auto parts, plastics and machinery?
For the study, CNI investigated all the products that will be taxed in China and the United States, determined which are exported by Brazil to the world, but not to those countries, and those that are already exported, and can increase.
The CNI was to convert the US and Chinese tariff codes to a six-digit harmonized code, which implies a loss of specificity.
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