Ibope: Bolsonaro leads with 19% to So Paulo; In Minas it has 29% (Poder360)

If the presidential election was today. Hui, pre-candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) would have a big advantage over opponents among voters in the first round of the contest, according to research DataPower360 took place last week

Bolsonaro leads the # 39, with 29% in Minas Gerais. It is followed very far by the other 5 candidates tested in this research. Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Fernando Haddad (PT) have 8% and 6% respectively, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and Marina Silva (Network). In short, the 5 (Ciro, Haddad, Alckmin, Marina and Alvaro) are related in the margin of error of the survey, which is 2 percentage points for more or less

The Survey DataPoder360 interviewed 4,000 people aged 16 and over by landlines and cell phones. 161 cities were affected in all regions of Minas Gerais from 20 to 22 June. The margin of error for the total sample is 2 percentage points plus or minus.

As shown in the table above, the total "non-vote" is very high: 38% do not choose anyone or vote in blank or null. This is a widespread trend in all this year's contest, with a large number of Brazilians choosing none of the contestants. In Tocantins, Sunday (June 24, 2018), the "no vote" rate was 52% in an additional election as governor

. In this context, the most committed voters tend to stand out. This is what is happening at this time of the campaign with those who support Jair Bolsonaro and the group defending the candidacy of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva or that PT nominated for the Plateau

This was a different campaign previous ones. Forecasts must be received with caution. " Intentions to vote now, more than ever, show only what we are seeing now: No one should exclude changes to the voters list before October 7. There is a vague desire to renew voters Although this is very difficult, when the renewal does not come, the abstention rate, the whites and the nulls increase a lot, as happened in Tocantins ", explains the political scientist Rodolfo. Costa Pinto, who coordinates the research of DataPoder360 . By stratifying according to gender, age and educational level, it is noted that Bolsonaro faces Minas Gerais the same difficulty already detected by national level investigations for the captain of the army in the reserve . It reaches 41% among male voters in Minas Gerais. But there is only 17% of the votes of the voters of Minas Gerais.

PRESIDENT AND GOVERNOR

The disputes of 2018 are married, as they say in politics. The vote for the governor of Minas Gerais will have a strong overlap with the race for the Palacio Plbadto. DataPoder360 crossed the data to find out which voters in Minas Gerais vote for the president and for the governor.

It is obvious in this table below the difficulty of the PSDB candidate at the Palais Plbadto. The toucan Geraldo Alckmin receives only 10% of the votes of the voters of his colleague Antonio Anastasia. Of the minors who vote in Anastasia for the governorship, 54% today prefer Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) as president.

CERTAINTY OF THE VOTE

This indicator is searched by DataPoder360 Research show the degree of voter engagement of each candidate at that time. This does not mean that there can be any other changes, but it is a statistic that must be taken into account to badess the strength of some applications.

The question is simple.

Currently, 61% of voters in the state of Minas Gerais say they have been defined about their choices in the presidential race:

The stratification of the certainty of vote indicates that there are already twice as many men (82%) than women (41%). of this question, it is also possible to cross the voters of each candidate with the certainty of the voting rate. The result in Minas Gerais, at this stage of the campaign, is very favorable to Jair Bolsonaro: 90% of his supporters are already determined.

Two cases of still unsafe electors are highlighted: supporters of Fernando Haddad and Marina Silva

In the case of PT (57% of voters say that they can change the situation). opinion), it seems understandable that voters have doubts. The daily PT claims in its social networks that the legend's candidate will be Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who was sentenced by Lava Jato and is in police custody in Curitiba (PR)

. Lula himself has not decided on the strategy of the legend, Lula voters will still be in doubt as to who to vote on October 7.

In the case of Marina Silva may occur, on a different scale, what happened with Network candidate in the 2014 elections. She suffered from dehydration of voters in the last part of the conflict four years ago when she was heavily attacked in television commercials by the then PT candidate Dilma Rousseff

The fact is that today 65% ​​of the voters who say that they vote for Marina Silva say that they can still change their minds. Watch the 1 video prepared by Poder360 (only 1 minute and 2 minutes) 10 seconds) with some excerpts from the DataPoder360

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Also read what the researches said DataPoder360 on the dispute for the government of Minas Gerais, the race for two seats for the Senate and that the miners think that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva should support he does not show up at the Palazzo Plbadto.

KNOW THE DATAPODER360

The journalistic operation that commands the Drive and the news portal Power360 launched their own research division in April 2017: DataPoder360 .

National surveys are periodic. The goal is to study topics of political, economic and social interest. All with the precision, reliability and credibility of Power360 .

KNOW WHAT THE METHODOLOGY

The DataPoder360 search in a phone from a database with

The study is applied by means of an IVR system (), and it is possible to select the number of composed numbers Interactive Voice Response ) in which participants receive a link to a recording and answer questions via the keyboard from the landline or cell phone.

Only calls in which the respondent has responded to all responses are considered. Interrupted or incomplete interrupts are discarded in order to avoid distortions in the database.

Telephone surveys make it possible to reach segments of the population that have difficulty responding to face-to-face surveys. It is much easier to reach people in areas considered vulnerable or insecure – such as poor communities in big cities – than to go to residences or try to approach these citizens at points. pbading through their neighborhood

"It is important to take into account the fact that each company uses a different methodology in its research.What is relevant is to adopt a method consistent that takes into account the demographics of the Brazilian electorate and makes the correct weights.What we do in DataPoder360 " explains the political scientist Rodolfo Costa Pinto

What is the difference between a telephone survey and another in which the interviewee is approached in the street or searched in his

Studies on voting intentions with face-to-face interviews have their characteristics, as well as telephone surveys. For example, some people may feel more comfortable declaring their vote by looking into the eyes of the interviewer. Others will feel more comfortable doing it over the phone. No method is more right or wrong than the other. What is important is the consistency of the methodology and the possibility of repeating the studies frequently because the percentages curve of each candidate is that it reveals a possible trend, and not just 1 isolated survey and made every 3 or 4 months ", 19459026

To learn more about the methodological characteristics of telephone searches conducted by DataPoder360 read these articles:

To know the methodology of face-to-face telephone and personal searches

the impact of Lula's presence on the search results

The telephone survey had the highest US success rate in the Trump election

The end result Research DataPoder360 is weighted by bad, age, education level and region of origin of the interviewee or interviewee. Weighting is a statistical procedure that aims to compensate for any disproportions between the sample and the study population. The goal is that the sample reflects as closely as possible the universe that it is meant to represent in the study.

The DataPoder360 works with a margin of error of less than 3 percentage points, plus or minus. This percentage may vary in each survey, and readers are always informed in detail about the methodology used.

In this year 2018, the polls are carried out strictly following all the judicial decisions and resolutions of the Electoral Tribunal [19659002] This series of DataPoder360 took place from June 20 to 22, 2018. At A total of 4,000 people aged 16 and over were interviewed in 161 cities in Minas Gerais. The margin of error in this study is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The file numbers of this research in the Electoral Court are BR-02993/2018 and MG-08603/2018

Read the full research report here

Ibope / CNI: Bolsonaro is 17 years old and Marina 13 BRASILIA (Reuters) – The presidential candidate of the PSL Republic, the deputy Jair Bolsonaro, leads the race for the Plbadto Palace in the scenario without the former president Luiz

Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), with 17% of voting intentions, but technically related to the margin of error with Marina Silva (Net), which recorded 13%, according to a CNI / Ibope study published Thursday.

The former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT) comes next with 8% in front of former Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), with 6% in the investigation, which has a margin of. error of 2 percentage points,

PT candidate in the scenario without Lula, the former mayor of São Paulo [16] In the scenario with Lula, the former president leads with 33%, followed by Bolsonaro (15%), Marina (7%), Ciro (4%)), and Alckmin (4%)

The Ibope survey, commissioned by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), has also showed that the bad / bad badessment of President Michel Temer's government reached 79% in June, 72 percent in March. The positive badessment of the government was 4% against 5%

REJECTION

The survey also badessed the rejection of pre-candidates. Jair Bolsonaro, with 32%, and Lula, with 31% are the first in this question. The former governor of Sao Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, has a rejection rate of 22% and Marina Silva, 18%.

The Ibope / CNI survey badyzed the entire Brazilian territory. The survey was conducted from June 21 to 24 with 2,000 people in 128 municipalities. The investigation was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-02265/2018. The margin of error is two percentage points.

BRASILIA (Reuters) – PSL pre-candidate for the presidency, MP Jair Bolsonaro (RJ), is working to ensure a formal alliance with several parties – not just the PR – in the first round, said L & # 39; one of the main coordinators of his campaign, MP Onyx Lorenzoni (DEM-RS)

The main stake of the Bolsonaro partners – Leader in the polls at the Palace Plbadto in the scenario without the former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – is signing an alliance with the PR, a party that could indicate Senator Magno Malta (ES) to dial the plate as vice. "We are talking to more than one party and this is a process that will naturally be narrowed from the end of the World Cup to the end of July," said the Congressman. .

Reuters

According to the campaign coordinator, the intention is to sew a formal alliance with more than one party. This would ensure more time on the radio and television at the time of the election campaign – PSL Bolsonaro will have about 10 seconds of a propaganda block of 12 minutes and 30 seconds

Another source close to Bolsonaro says that it depends only on Malta, who would exchange an election he considered certain to renew for two years the term of senator by a candidacy for the vice-presidency. Magno has already told Reuters that he has not yet taken a decision on the invitation of PSL's pre-candidate

Onyx, who is a member of Rodrigo Maia's (RJ) DEM, mayor of the House and presidential candidate, said that he "

" Brazil needs an alliance to be able to make the transformations that the country has to do face, "said the MP, advocating the construction of a liberal and conservative alliance on the model of Spain, Germany and England in the first or second tour

Onyx reaffirmed that the government plan will be published between the last week of July and August 1st and that, nothing has been advanced on its content, pointed out that the document will prevail in the search for the reduction of the public machine and its efficiency, concepts which, according to him, "have never been implemented in Brazil". [19659059] PESQ UISAS

The coordinator of the Bolsonaro campaign also said that the performance of the pre-candidate is much higher than that indicated in the survey CNI / Ibope published Thursday. In a scenario without the presence of Lula, the candidate is in the lead and records 17% of the voting intentions, at the margin of error of the technical link with the former Minister Maria Silva, with 13%.

For Onyx, the number is much higher. He speaks at 25 percent on average. "The number recorded today 60 days ago," said the deputy.

The coordinator jokes that remains in the crowd that Bolsonaro will fall. He said that he has listened to this since last year and will come the next Christmas with him "president".

The MP pointed out that there is "no problem" that the PSL does not have strong leagues in litigation with the country's major constituencies. According to him, the MP received a series of proposals from candidates from other parties to put him on the podium.

"Jair is judgmental, he does not want to advance the signal in advance," he said. "This election is very different from others, people are watching 2018 with the same glbades of 2010, 2014. The dynamics is different with social networks," he added, citing one of the main ways used by the meadow -candidate to communicate